by Hari Prasad Shrestha 15 January 2021
India once again behaved Nepal in a dominating way by refusing to talk on border disputes and acceptance of Eminent Persons Group (EPG) at the last moment after only arrival of Nepal foreign minister to India. Nepal had published a list of agendas, including border issues, for discussion before the foreign minister’s departure. However, India refused to talk on the border issue and the EPG report, despite Nepal presented these issues in the meeting.
Without resolving the border dispute of Kalapani and acceptance of Nepal India Eminent Persons Group (EPG), no matter how many times Indian PM and another high-level official visit Nepal, or no matter how much help they provide, it will be tough to lower anti-India sentiments in people of Nepal.
As these issues with India are the highest priority of Nepal, that’s why, before the visit of Nepal foreign minister to India, Nepal PM KP Sharma Oli, during recent interviews with Zee news and WION TV of India, he spoke in Hindi and English languages on relations with its neighbors and Nepal’s stance on border disputes with India. During the interview, Oli reiterated Lipulekh, Limpiadhura, and Kalapani as an integral part of Nepal. Once again, he showed his nationalistic character by clarifying his stand with India.
Some well-known personalities in social media, in tweeter in Nepal, appreciated his clear vision to justify our ties with India from all aspects. He requested India to abandon colonial thought dealing with Nepal. Moreover, he clearly stressed Nepal’s non-aligned foreign policy, Nepal’s dignity, and goodwill for both neighbors. His self-confidence and self-decency were remarkable. He gave India’s people a message to understand Nepal India’s reality, especially Nepal’s vision and stands.
For a couple of years, after a border blockade in 2015, Nepal voiced disagreements explicitly with India, while Indian authorities and the media had a routine predisposition blaming China to inflame Nepal if it requests dialogues with India on disputed issues, especially on the border dispute.
The strategy behind dragging China on bilateral issues with Nepal indicated India’s disregard to dialogue with Nepal by diverting the issue towards China. Instead of dialogue, India accused Nepal; it mugged India’s land cartographically.
India never wanted to go into sincerely, not only in border issues but also on many other issues, where Nepal is suffering seriously.
Amidst the situation of no dialogue on the border dispute between the two countries, both countries have been flexible and positive for dialogue in recent days.
After a telephone conversation between Nepal Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi on 15 August, Indian Independence Day, they signaled to break the silence between the two countries.
Subsequently, Nepal’s government took a conciliatory approach by withdrawing a schoolbook that includes a map of a border area the two countries dispute.
Concerned authorities from both countries made efforts to resume bilateral talks of different networking between the two countries.
Furthermore, intending to open the door for dialogues, on 21 Oct 2020, Indian Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) Chief Samant Kumar Goel visited Nepal as a special envoy of PM Modi and held talks with PM Oli.
Following the RAW chief’s visit, Chief of Indian Army Staff Gen. Naravane made an official visit to Nepal on the first week of Nov 2020 to receive the honorary title of Nepal Army general and reset the bilateral ties that came under severe strain following the border row.
After that, Indian Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla visited Kathmandu on last week of Nov 2020, who also met with Nepali high authorities, aimed at how to take the friendship forward.
After Sringla’s visit from the north, Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe also visited Kathmandu on November 29, 2020. During his visit, the two sides agreed on restarting various student exchange and training programs. China also agreed to supply “various non-lethal military aid” to Kathmandu.
After series of high-level visits from neighboring countries, the Nepalese Prime Minister suddenly dissolved the House of Representatives and announced dates for general elections to be held on April 30 and May 1, 2021, which caused a split in the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP). The dissolution of the house has triggered nationwide protests and political chaos, pushing the country into confrontations.
Over a dozen writ petitions challenging Oli’s decision to dissolve the House are being heard in the Supreme Court. Now the ball is in the court of the Supreme Court.
Immediately after political turmoil in Nepal, a delegation led by Guo Yezhou, vice-minister of the Chinese Communist Party’s International Department, arrived in Nepal, and they met with major political leaders, including PM Oli and NPC leader Prachanda. The group asked NCP not to split and advised Nepal’s political stability. However, their efforts went without success as Oli momentarily skidded his ground from north to south after China showed support for unity in NCP rather than whatsoever be in the government.
Major political parties in Nepal are also seen in the state of dual mentality regarding general elections. On the one hand, they contradict the announcement of the mid-term poll. On the other hand, political parties are internally preparing to participate in the mid-term poll except Prachand led fraction of NCP.
As India and China are excessively active in Nepal, a third power, the U.S., with the new administration, could send ripples through the region by supporting Tibetan causes, which might be challenging for Nepal’s official “one China” policy.
Based on current political chaos, Nepal has been trapped between two neighbors. There are also speculations in public that Nepal could fall into the swamp of political disaster and ambiguity. Demand for Hindu state and constitutional monarchy is also getting momentum in the streets. Even if the court gives a verdict supporting the midterm poll, there are widespread conjectures in the political level of low possibility of polls to be conducted on announced dates. And if it rejects polls, they also fear, most possibly, in either situation, the political system may take the path of unpredictability, and the country might step in the path of conflicts and destructions.
Amid political fluid situation, dissolution of House of Representatives, and split in the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP), a foreign minister-level delegation of Nepal visited India 14 – 16 Jan. 2021 for Joint Commission Meeting with his counterpart.
Indian Foreign Secretary, during his visit to Kathmandu in Nov. 2020, had conveyed an invitation from Indian External Affairs Minister to Nepal Foreign Minister to visit India.
During a meeting with his Indian counterpart, Foreign Minister, Gyawali raised the issue of a boundary dispute, submitting the Eminent Persons’ Group report. He also stressed building confidence in bilateral ties, expediting economic partnership with India, and pushing for early completion of India funded projects, Nepal Tarai inundation caused by border Indian embarkments, and additional air service routes for Nepal. The supply of the Covi-19 vaccine to Nepal was also a priority in the meeting. However, India discussed all matters in Meeting raised by Nepal except border disputes and EPG report.
Moreover, India, to engage with Kathmandu to revitalize pending development and infrastructure projects-initiated dialogue with Nepal despite internal strife within the ruling party and fluid political situation in Nepal.
People in Nepal view this sudden closeness of India in Nepal’s political fluid situation as full of mystery and doubt. On the one hand, as per media reports, it befitted as a strategy to thwart Chinese influence in Nepal, and on the other hand, it would not be surprising if the constitutional stability and the government be hunted before time in Nepal as it did previously.
As a result of political unpredictability in Nepal, India and China become automatically active, by direct and indirect interferences and playing games to influence the Himalayan country. It is currently clearly visible; China seems to be displeased with the recent political development in Nepal. However, India is comparatively in a better position to regain its lost status in Nepal.
The Kalapani territorial dispute between Nepal and India turned them from best friend to worse hatred. This long-standing dispute erupted on May 8, 2020, when Indian Defense Minister Mr. Rajnath Singh inaugurated the road in Lipulekh, Kalapani, stating it was a pilgrimage road Kailash Mansarovar in China. After the Sugauli treaty with India in 1816, this territory was under Nepal until 1962, encroached by Indian security forces in the war with China in1962.
Before the inauguration of this road by the Indian home minister, on November 2, 2019, India’s Home Ministry unveiled a new political map, placing Kalapani inside the Indian borders.
Countering it, on May 18, 2020, the Government of Nepal endorses a new political map placing Kalapani, Lipulekh, and Limpiyadhura, occupied territory by India, within its border, confirming those land under Nepalese territory.
Due to a lack of strong evidence, India was not much interested in talking with Nepal. And India’s government spokespersons in press conferences repeatedly replied to Nepal only after the end of the Covid-19 pandemic. However, India refused to talk with Nepal foreign minister.
India Nepal relations had also worsened in 2015 when Nepal promulgated the New constitution, and it refused India’s concerns to incorporate in the new constitution. Thereafter, India imposed a border blockade in Nepal, creating a catastrophic situation by stopping the supply of essential items, medicines, and fuels to Nepal for several months. India lost its transit monopoly for Nepal after Nepal and China signed a transit treaty due to a border blockade.
Both China and India are heavily investing in Nepal. China is the highest investment development partner in Nepal. It is developing a border transmission line and two large hydroelectric power in Nepal. It is also investing in road constructions and ring road expansion in Kathmandu as well.
Moreover, it is also developing dry ports in Tatopani and Syaprubesi border points, World Peace City in Lumbini, the creation of China Study Centers, an international airport in Pokhara, optical fiber cable connectivity from Kathmandu to the Chinese border, and a railway line connecting Lhasa and Nepal. Chinese plan to extend the Qingzang railway to the Nepalese border will be completed by this year. It will start from Shigatse in Tibet to Katmandu.
Over 90% of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Nepal is from China in the current fiscal year. Beijing pledged nearly $500 million in financial aid to Nepal in October last year when Chinese President Xi Jinping visited the Himalayan country.
However, in a vigorous effort to counter Chinese investments in Nepal, India increased Nepal’s share in its financial aid. 375 crores in 2017-18 to Rs. 1,050 crores for the year 2019-20.
Indian is assisting in educational projects, health sector projects, electrification, and drinking water projects in Nepal. It is also investing in Tarai road and bridge constructions.
Strengthening Cross-border linkages through railways connecting the Mahendra Highway of Nepal through major border towns, Biratnagar, Birgunj, Bhairawa, and Nepalgunj, is under construction. Moreover, connecting Customs points in these border points with Integrated Check Point (ICP) is also underway. India is also planning to construct the Raxaul-Kathmandu railway line. And DPR for this project is in the initial stages.
The difference between Indian and Chinese support in Nepal is- India announces aids and supports programs. However, implementations are below satisfactory level while China implements projects rapidly as per announcements.
In the current changed context and initiation of dialogues between two countries, Nepal should not underestimate India’s security concern. India should also not challenge Nepal’s sovereignty by occupying Nepalese territories in the name of security concern.
Its high time for Indian political leaders to draw a clear policy direction towards Nepal. India must abandon colonial policies to keep Nepal unstable and poor, which might also damage India in the long run.
Until India removes the army from the Kalapani area, there is the least possibility to settle this issue with Nepal. However, it could be resolved through continued dialogues, which would be an example in this century that occupied land being returned without war, recognizing historical documents and evidence. Nevertheless, Indian elites may have some sense of fear that Pakistan’s morale may boost if India returns occupied land to Nepal?