India and Pakistan’s Indian Ocean military buildup must be contained

Farhan Bokhari

Among the China hawks U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has nominated to his new cabinet are Mike Waltz as national security adviser and Marco Rubio as secretary of state. This is a hardening of Washington’s anti-China stance.

But the Pacific-focused U.S.-China rivalry risks overshadowing prevailing security tensions in the Indian Ocean region. India and Pakistan, both nuclear-armed, continue to be engulfed in the tensions between the two global powers.

India, the world’s most populous country, has become a more active member of the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific coalition that seeks to prevent China’s rise to lone global power status. Pakistan, meanwhile, has remained a close ally of China for most of the past six decades.

Over time India and Pakistan have sought to become active players within their respective global camps, benefitting from opportunities to purchase modern conventional weapons while expanding their nuclear arsenals.

According to estimates made this year by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, India had 172 nuclear weapons and Pakistan had 170. The growing risk of the unthinkable has been preceded by a terrible history of previous Indo-Pakistani conflicts, including three major wars and numerous skirmishes.

The neighbors continue to ignore a growing nuclear risk, with each flexing its muscle in the Indian Ocean region. On Nov. 5, Pakistan said it successfully test-fired a new ballistic missile from a naval ship, marking the latest addition to the country’s missile program.

While Islamabad says its missile program is based on indigenous research and locally manufactured technology, foreign observers have periodically noted signs of Chinese technology being employed. Despite its economic challenges, Pakistan continues to purchase naval, land and aerial military hardware from China.

Pakistan’s plans for Chinese military hardware purchases include naval ships and up to eight submarines by the end of this decade. Half of the submarines will be built in Pakistan with Chinese support. They will be equipped with air-independent propulsion systems that will allow them to remain submerged for a longer duration than conventional vessels.

China has also supported Pakistan in manufacturing JF-17 Thunder fighters, giving the country an edge in preparing for another conflict. In September, Azerbaijan said it had purchased a batch of JF-17s from Pakistan in a deal that analysts valued at $1.6 billion. The deal will help financially sustain the JF-17 production cycle and allow Islamabad to invest in other Chinese fighters such as the J-31 stealth jet.

Meanwhile, two of India’s nuclear-powered submarines this year began deep-sea patrols. This gives India the capacity to ensure the survival of submarine-based nuclear weapons in the event of a conflict.

India has also purchased French-manufactured Rafale fighter jets and a variety of Russian fighters, notably advanced Su-30MKI jets.

A machine gun is mounted on U.S. Destroyer USS Momsen (DDG92) as it docks in the Indian Ocean in Mombasa, Kenya.   © Reuters

The expansion of the India-Pakistan rivalry to the Indian Ocean region deserves greater international focus to prevent a conflict.

The dispute between the countries is centered on the predominantly Muslim state of Kashmir, located in the Himalayan mountain range. A third of the state is under Pakistan’s control, more than half is administered by India and a smaller slice is under Chinese control.

As the Trump administration settles in, a focus on containing China’s expansion in the Pacific Ocean region — notably around Taiwan — must be in tandem with a focus on security around the Indian Ocean region.

This must involve a two-tiered approach.

On one hand, the world must resist further nuclearization of the region through measures such as blocking both India and Pakistan from acquiring military technologies that could be used in a future nuclear exchange. This would require fresh engagement with China to limit exports to Pakistan that could allow the country to use nuclear weapons from its sea-based platforms.

But engagement with China alone will not work unless India is also persuaded to limit any further expansion of its nuclear-driven platforms in the region. The greater involvement of Russia, which has historically provided India with much of its military hardware, might become possible — especially if Trump uses his clout to end the conflict in Ukraine.

On the other hand, India and Pakistan have remained locked in their conflict for more than three-quarters of a century. In the past, the global community has urged them to work toward reconciliation but left it to India and Pakistan to iron out their differences. Going forward, greater global diplomatic engagement will be essential to nudge the neighbors toward a settlement.

Ultimately, the expanded nuclearization of the Indian Ocean has heightened the risks to global security. These risks must be contained.

source : asia.nikkei