by Zohaib Altaf, Nimrah Javed
On 23 August, 2024, a small Indian drone was spotted across the Line of Control in the airspace over Pakistan-administered Kashmir, a reminder of the ever-present tensions between Islamabad and New Delhi. While Pakistan claims it shot down the drone, India asserts that the drone inadvertently strayed due to a malfunction. This episode, though, is emblematic of a larger and more concerning trend—the rapid militarization of drone technology in South Asia.
Both India and Pakistan have been heavily investing in drones, which are increasingly being viewed not only as tactical assets but also as strategic tools capable of influencing the balance of power in the region. As drones become integral to militaries around the world, the potential for miscalculation, unintended escalation, and destabilization in future confrontations grows.
In the evolving dynamics of India-Pakistan relations, where tensions remain high and the risk of miscalculation is ever-present, future-oriented confidence-building measures (CBMs) for drone technology will be vital. With the anticipated rise of more advanced autonomous and swarm drones operating near sensitive borders, the potential for rapid, unintended escalation grows. To prevent this, future CBMs must prioritize real-time crisis communication systems, artificial intelligence (AI)-driven transparency in drone operations, and preemptive agreements on limiting disruptive drone technologies. These forward-looking measures will help bridge the trust gap and ensure that cutting-edge drone advancements enhance stability rather than heighten the risk of conflict.
India’s Drone Development: Expanding Capabilities with Strategic Implications
India’s drone program has seen rapid advancements in recent years, driven by a desire to modernize its military and address emerging security challenges, particularly along its borders with China and Pakistan. By mid-2024, India had inducted between 2,000 and 2,500 drones, with the total expenditures ranging from USD $361.45 million to $421.69 million. These drones, which are used for surveillance, cargo transport, and tactical operations, are an integral part of India’s military modernization efforts.
One of the most notable developments in India’s drone program has been the deployment of swarm drones—unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that operate in coordinated groups to execute complex missions. These swarm drones are seen as being a core component of India’s defense strategy, particularly in terms of neutralizing threats from Pakistan. In February 2023, the Indian Army began inducting its first heterogeneous swarm UAV system, developed by the India-based NewSpace Research & Technologies, showcasing India’s commitment to integrating advanced drone technology into its military. India’s swarm drones have both offensive and defensive uses. Offensively, these drones can overwhelm enemy defenses by attacking multiple targets simultaneously, potentially including high-value assets such as nuclear delivery vehicles. Their ability to operate in large, coordinated groups makes them particularly effective in saturating and disrupting adversary defenses, potentially neutralizing critical military infrastructure. The potential for swarm drone operations to be coordinated with India’s precision missile systems could enable greater real-time accuracy for strikes – including pre-emptive attacks – on critical targets within Pakistan. Furthermore, AI-based surveillance systems can provide real-time data to support these operations, improving the accuracy and effectiveness of drone strikes. India’s swarm drones can also support its air defense and nuclear alert systems, through intercepting rival drone-based attacks and surveilling Pakistani nuclear forces deployed near border areas.
India’s strong industrial base also gives it a significant advantage in sustaining drone operations during a protracted conflict. India benefits from a dynamic ecosystem with over 200 startups dedicated to drone technology. This capability may allow India to quickly replace lost drones and maintain operational pressure over extended periods – an advantage that can prove crucial in modern warfare.
Pakistan’s Drone Development: A Strategy of Deterrence and Asymmetric Warfare
Recognizing the strategic value of drones, Pakistan has also made significant progress in developing and acquiring UAVs. Pakistan’s drone fleet includes advanced platforms like the Bayraktar TB2 and Akinci from Turkey, as well as the Wing Loong II and CH-4 from China. These drones, along with indigenous systems like the Burraq and Shahpar, provide Pakistan with a versatile and capable force that can be used for a variety of missions, including precision strikes, surveillance, and electronic warfare.
The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) currently plays a crucial role in supporting drone operations, as seen in recent air-defense exercises. By providing cover for UAVs, the PAF may coordinate drone strikes while simultaneously conducting manned air operations. By using loitering munitions alongside drones, Pakistan can target India’s high-value assets such as the S-400, Advanced Air Defense (AAD), and Prithvi Air Defense (PAD) systems, effectively disrupting Indian defenses.
In the coming years, Pakistan may coordinate operations between advanced drones with its next-generation missile forces, such as the Fatah-2 missile, to enhance its ability to penetrate India’s air defenses. These drones would be capable of overwhelming India’s radar and missile interception systems, creating openings for precision missile strikes on critical targets. This approach could help offset India’s growing numerical and technological superiority in air defense, leveraging advanced drone-missile integration to challenge even the most sophisticated defenses.
Implications for Strategic Stability
The rapid proliferation of drones in South Asia threatens to negatively impact strategic stability. As drones become more integrated into military strategies, their potential to disrupt traditional deterrence dynamics becomes increasingly apparent. In nuclearized South Asia, the ability of drones to conduct precision strikes on strategic targets, including nuclear assets, raises the stakes in any conflict.
India’s potential integration of swarm drones with its missile defense systems and precision strike capabilities could fundamentally shift the strategic balance in the region. While offensively these drones might be capable of targeting Pakistan’s nuclear delivery vehicles, such a scenario would likely only occur in the event of an extreme conventional conflict. The real threat to strategic stability may lie in how these technologies are perceived as part of India’s increasing counterforce options, alongside systems like multiple independently-targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRV)s and precision missiles such as the Agni-P. Per scholarly work by American political scientists Vipin Narang and Christopher Clary, Indian leaders’ statements on revising its nuclear doctrine and developments such as increasing missile accuracy indicate that Indian officials may be tempted by counterforce options. The development of swarm drones could further fuel this temptation.
While Pakistan does have some conventional capabilities to disrupt India’s air defenses, the growing technological gap, fueled by India’s advanced systems like the S-400 and precision missiles, limits the effectiveness of these measures. Furthermore, India’s access to cutting-edge technologies through defense agreements with countries such as the United States, France, Israel, and Russia significantly enhances its conventional and counterforce capabilities, making Pakistan’s conventional responses less reliable. This perceived erosion of Pakistan’s second-strike capability heightens the “use it or lose it” pressure, pushing Pakistan to consider the nuclear option, particularly if it believes that its strategic assets are vulnerable to preemptive strikes.
Although Pakistan has developed drones domestically, its drone supply is still largely dependent on foreign imports and its domestic production capacity is limited by its weak indigenous drone industry. This reliance on external sources could become a vulnerability in a protracted conflict, such as a full-scale war with India similar to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, if diplomatic pressures or supply chain disruptions limit Pakistan’s ability to acquire new drones. If external dependencies limit Pakistan’s ability to maintain an effective drone fleet, it may need to rely more heavily on its nuclear deterrent to uphold strategic stability.
The Way Forward
To manage these risks, both nations should first adopt achievable, concrete CBMs. A practical starting point would be enhancing existing communication mechanisms, such as expanding the use of the crisis hotlines both India and Pakistan already maintain, like the hotline between the Indian and Pakistani Director-General of Military Operations. These hotlines can be adapted to cover drone-related incidents, allowing for real-time communication to clarify intentions and de-escalate any accidental violations of airspace by drones. Building on this, direct dialogues between key military and political leadership from both nations, such as the defense ministries and foreign offices, could establish practical ground rules for drone operations, including notification protocols and shared understandings of drone activity near sensitive areas.
As trust builds, more complex CBMs can be explored, including bilateral agreements to limit the use of advanced drone technologies, such as swarm drones and autonomous drones. While these agreements may be difficult due to the strategic advantages these systems offer, they are crucial in mitigating the risks of escalation. Lastly, exploring more complex arms control agreements that integrate drone technology, including swarm and autonomous drones, with other military systems would require greater diplomatic effort and trust-building. Though harder to implement, these CBMs would ensure that both countries manage technological advancements in a way that enhances rather than undermines strategic stability. Balancing the operational benefits of drones with effective risk management will be critical in ensuring that these technologies enhance rather than disrupt stability in South Asia.
source : southasianvoices