Resistance force members train at a base in eastern Myanmar. Some analysts say the military’s draft order could end up benefitting resistance forces. (Photo by Maung Moe)
BANGKOK — The announcement of sweeping conscription rules by Myanmar’s military government has sparked a social media backlash and fresh calls by resistance forces for popular support. The move also marks a turning point for the military, which has portrayed itself as a professional fighting force but has seen accelerating defeats and desertions in recent months.
The State Administration Council, as the regime calls itself, said on Saturday that it had activated a long-standing national conscription law with immediate effect, requiring young people to serve in the armed forces for at least two years, extendable to five years in periods of national emergency. For those deemed “professional,” including doctors and technicians, the minimum period would be three years. Myanmar has been under emergency rule since the military seized power and jailed elected leaders on Feb. 1, 2021.
While little detail has been given about the conscription process, regime spokesman Zaw Min Tun told BBC Burmese on Tuesday that recruitment would commence in April, with an initial batch of 5,000 recruits. Foreshadowing a wide sweep of target sectors for conscription, he noted that the military “needs professionals like computer programmers, economists and journalists, apart from fighters.”
Implementation of the conscription law is only likely to “boost recruitment by opposition forces; create opportunities to infiltrate sit-tat [the army] and generate refugee flows,” said Laetitia van den Assum, an independent diplomatic analyst and a former Dutch ambassador.
In Nikkei Asia’s interviews with more than 30 people in Myanmar and analysis of some 100 social media posts by potential conscripts, responses to the announcement were overwhelmingly negative — even among those who said they would comply. Many said they would consider fleeing the country or joining a resistance force rather than submit to conscription.
Others said they were prepared to injure themselves to qualify for an exemption as disabled, while many single women said they were considering hasty weddings to qualify for the exemption for married women. For men, the alternatives include joining the monkhood, fleeing the country or paying bribes to the “right people,” noted a Yangon-based independent analyst.
“Friends are telling me they will pay what they have to pay. This seems to be the overarching view among the middle class, those who can afford to dodge service,” he said. “But those who can’t pay will indeed need to resort to more radical solutions: emigration through shady networks, self-mutilation… or even becoming a monk.”
Only 10% of those interviewed by Nikkei Asia said they would probably comply with the order if drafted, but all expressed anger or fear, including of the harsh penalties such as five-year prison terms and fines for non-compliance.
“If they force me to join the military, I have to comply because I don’t have money to pay them and I don’t have anywhere else to run. But I would try to help the revolution as an informer inside the military,” said Hmine Wai, a company employee and part-time bartender in Yangon. “If I had to face the young PDFs [People’s Defense Forces], I would suicide-bomb myself.”
Lives of ordinary people in Yangon could be severely disrupted by the conscription law, with some already considering fleeing the country. (Photo by Yuichi Nitta)Jay, a 20-year-old student who suspended his university studies after the 2021 takeover and is studying online through private education initiatives, said he would possibly join the military and then defect. “My classmates [from online classes] … called me and cried on the phone. We are all lost. If they force me to join the army, I will contact People’s Embrace [an organization for military defectors] and will try to defect.”
Another man, a Yangon fish seller, said that if mobilized, he would “rather cut off a few fingers than serve the military.”
Several foreign and Myanmar businessmen expressed concern about the impact on investor confidence and staff morale — but some said that conscription would most likely focus initially on areas outside Yangon.
“Our staff is very scared, and some of them are already considering options, including whether to try to emigrate or enroll in a post-graduation course or even perhaps join the resistance,” said a Myanmar-based executive. “But it doesn’t seem likely that the SAC will focus initially on Yangon office workers. The sad thing is it will probably focus on secondary towns and the kind of people who can’t buy their way out.”
Overall, critics say, the conscription order highlights the regime’s “growing desperation,” particularly after the launch of Operation 1027, a sweeping series of attacks in late October by resistance forces against regime troops.
But it also would have little real impact on the military effort, said Adrian Rovel, an independent political analyst. “I don’t see how this move can turn the tide. What the SAC really needs are hardened, motivated combat units … not a bunch of people coerced into a few weeks of training and sent as cannon fodder with no proper support or command.”
“We have seen plenty of civilians, mainly villagers, forcibly recruited into people’s militia forces by the military, and ethnic groups have also been accused of such tactics. The difference this time is that conscription gives a legal framework to a rogue practice,” he added.
Since Operation 1027, military forces have rapidly deteriorated in conflict areas amid desertions, casualties and defections to the resistance. About 35 towns across northeast, central and western Myanmar have fallen to resistance hands. Particularly humiliating for the regime are widespread social media images of thousands of soldiers surrendering to resistance forces or attempting to flee across Myanmar’s borders into India, Thailand, Bangladesh and China.
In his initial announcement of the conscription move on Saturday, Zaw Min Tun said that a “national military service system involving all people is essential because of the situation in our country… it is everyone’s responsibility.”
Under the 2010 People’s Military Service Law, men aged 18 to 35 and women 18 to 27 will be required to serve two years, extendable to five years during national emergencies. For those with technical or professional expertise the upper age limit is higher, at 45 for males and 35 for females, with a service period of three years, also extendable to five years.
Exemptions from compulsory service could include “temporary deferments” for civil servants, students, those caring for elderly parents, drug addicts undergoing rehabilitation, those receiving medical treatment and those serving prison terms. But they would eventually have to serve the required period, even if they are beyond the age limit after the deferment, according to the law.
Permanent exemptions are given to members of religious orders, married women, persons with disabilities, those declared by the military medical assessment board to be permanently unfit for military service, and “those who are exempted by the conscription board.”
Myanmar military soldiers march during a ceremony to mark the country’s Union Day in Naypyidaw on Feb.12, a few days after the military regime enforced the conscription law. © (AFP/Jiji)Critics say the new rules went further than any military recruitment policy since Myanmar gained independence from British rule in 1948. Even so, the inclusion among exempt categories of “those who are exempted by the conscription board” signaled an easy exit for some. “This is simply a get-out clause for those with enough money or influence to buy off the right people,” said a Yangon-based diplomat.
Analysts also warned of the potentially divisive effects of the conscription order that would force citizens to fight against each other. One resistance group, the Bamar Peoples Liberation Army, said in a Facebook post: “It is the time now to choose whether you want to serve for the SAC, or the revolutionary army.”
While the regime has now clarified the time frame for initial recruitment of conscripts, it remains doubtful that untrained citizens would be handed weapons or any significant combat roles, said the diplomat. “Rather than proper training, conscripts are likely to be given basic support roles and, as seen under previous juntas, possibly used as porters, human shields and minesweepers,” he said.
“We know they will use civilians as human shields and porters, similar to the practices of the past seven decades,” said Thinzar Shunlei Yi, human rights activist and co-founder of People’s Goal, a military defector support organization. “However, today, we can see the military is exhausted, with front lines emerging everywhere, making every ethnic group, including their fellow Burmese, their enemies.”
Before it gets to that point, urgent questions need to be answered over the conscription law, said Hmine Wai.
“[Former President] U Thein Sein once said he wanted those who held guns to hold laptops, but now [SAC chief and Senior Gen.] Min Aung Hlaing wants those who have laptops to pick up guns — I just want to ask if the military would force children of their own and of rich people to fight for the military.”