by Kashif Mehmood 19 January 2020
The Post Balakot episode of 27 Feb, 2019 was an eye Opener for the people sitting at the helm of affairs in New Delhi , the Military masterminds of India and the Defense top brass . Apparently un-nerved, composed on TV screens and going with the usual rhetoric of having taught Pakistan a lesson, and having shot down a Pakistani state of the Art, 4th Generation –F-16, which has consequently earned IAF and Indian Government humiliation and embarrassment at different levels – The reality is far from what they have been portraying. The way Pakistan and its Air Force displayed their brilliance not only in Aerial Warfare but also in Electromagnetic spectrum, has set the alarm bells ringing at the top echelons of its adversary. PAF’s acquisition of futuristic tools and aircrafts in the last two decades in the shape of SAAB – Ereyie AWACS and their incredible efficiency during the aerial battle of 27th Feb coupled with the effectiveness of its Fighter jets, won the hearts and the minds of Pakistanis. But having said that, let’s not forget that the defense shopping spree of New Delhi after the aerial battle post Balakot, can turn the tables completely into its favor. The recent creation of Chief of Defense staff position by the ministry of Defense and consequent appointment of General Bipin Rawat as India’s 1st Chief of Defense staff is a major Indicator that the Indian Military Master minds are moving towards complete modernization of its armed forces and seeking for establishment of their military dominance in the new domains of Modern warfare i.e. Cyberspace and Electromagnetic Spectrum. The only major responsibility of Gen Bipin Rawat as chief of Defense Staff is “Military Procurements “, revealing the modernization designs the Indian Armed forces are up to.
As a matter of fact, India’s military modernization is an act for the balance of power in South East Asia against a burgeoning Chinese Military power and their display of incredibility in Cyberspace and electromagnetic warfare, but in case of an all-out war with Pakistan, it is a laughable assumption that they won’t put in their maximum Military resources into action. With the induction of $5bn worth Russian S-400 Missile defense system and the acquisition of 4.5th Generation Dasault Rafael Fighter Jet, the IAF can render their Airspace virtually impregnable. That’s the first area where the Military Master minds of Rawalpindi have to figure out some strategy in order to maintain the balance of power in the region. In this case the Chinese HQ-9/FD-200 missile defense system –an equivalent of Russian S-300 missile defense system is a reasonable option, though inferior in range and lethality as compared to S-400, but still it can mitigate the Indian prospective dominance to some extent. Deteriorating relation with US and dwindling economy, the Patriot missile defense system is not an option of Pakistan anymore. Though the aerial skirmish in Azad Kashmir in Feb 2019 was a success but we must not forget the fact that Indian fighter jets were able to fire their missiles 40 kilometers from the targets which speaks of the gaps our air defense has.
The induction of Dassault Rafael , a 4.5th Generation , commonly branded as “ Omni role” fighter jet is a valuable addition in the Indian fighter aircrafts inventory .Equipped with latest AESA Radars , having some stealthy features and the capability to launch Meteor missile , a next generation beyond range air to air missile (BVRAAM) that will revolutionize air to air combat in 21st century. PAF in this regard has to look inwards in order to counter this development. The JF-17 thunder block 3 as claimed by PAF IS a 4.5th generation multirole aircraft, prospectively equipped with AESA radars and Chinese manufactured latest PL -15 air to air missile, but the fact of the matter is that JF-17 Block 3 is not battle tested air craft as compared to Rafael that has seen some action in various hot theaters around the world. The Indian Air force faces another dilemma of ageing squadrons of Soviet era MIG – 27s and MIG -21s, with the retirement of these vintage jets, the IAF shall be reduced to half its strength of fighter jets that puts it in a vulnerable position in case of a two front war with China and Pakistan both. PAF to some extent faces the same ordeal with legacy jets like Mirage 3/5, F-7P/PG nearing their retirement ages to be replaced by home built JF-17 thunders. The PAF must go for a 5th Generation stealthy fighter jet once for all, and in this context Chinese Chengdu J-20 is the best option available to Islamabad, keeping in mind the budget & relationship constraints it faces if it goes for some western 5th Gen air crafts like Lockheed Martin F-35s or Russian Suk hoi -57s.
The starkest difference Pakistan faces is at the sea. Indian navy is equipped with an aircraft carrier-INS Vikramaditya that hosts Indian Home built LCA Tejas recently developed for naval requirements. On top of that another Air craft carrier INS Vikrant is under construction at Kochin Shipyard. This gives Indian navy quite a massive edge upon Pakistan Navy. News was that China may be selling its almost aged air craft carrier Liaoning, but it sounds like a hearsay so far.
The latest domains of modern warfare i.e. Cyberspace and electromagnetic spectrum are the key areas Pakistan need to look into. The Indian armed forces are working on network centric warfare that includes Satellites, radars, AWACS, communications all working in coordination with ground troops and forces in an integrated battle group in order to decimate the enemy in blitzkrieg style. Electronic warfare has evolved to remarkable level in last two decades. The people’s liberation Army (PLA) and People’s liberation Army and Air Force ( PLAAF ) have since decades been gaining advancements in both EW and on induction of Artificial intelligence in its weaponry . Other than the Cyberspace and Electromagnetic spectrum, the Chinese have moved forward huge leaps in Upper space warfare in the shape of Development of Hypersonic missiles and Deep sea warfare as well. India has started working in these domains in order to counter Chinese threats. Pakistan can never afford to stay complacent in this regard, the changing geopolitical dynamics of the region can trigger a war that can engulf the whole region into an inferno. Keeping in view the perennial unstable political situation and the dwindling economic state, the Military master minds at GHQ have a daunting task to accomplish.