The signing of a formal Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia on 17 September 2025 is being considered as a strategic turning point in South Asia’s security landscape. The SDMA was signed during Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s visit to Saudi Arabia. The SMDA includes a NATO-type like a clause, which states that aggression against one party, would be considered aggression against both. However, nuclear weapons are not explicitly mentioned in the pact, but the Saudi officials have stated that “all military means” are covered. Therefore, the pact prompted the speculation about a de facto nuclear umbrella extended by Pakistan. It is anticipated that this pact would have larger implications for the South Asian regional security.
Historically, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have close strategic cooperation, although the same was in informal format. As and when, the troops were required in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan deploy the troops. Moreover, Pakistan has trained Saudi forces, and even provided military advisory support. Reuters has been reported that presently about 1,500 and 2,000 Pakistani soldiers have been stationed in Saudi Arabia. These troops have been providing operational, technical and training help to the Saudi Arabia military.
Regional Motivations
The timing of the SMDA is geopolitically a very critical and significant. From Saudi perspective, the Middle East has been passing through a very critical phase on account of heightened regional instability, growing tension in the Gulf, including the latest Israeli airstrikes on Qatar. On the other hand, from Pakistan side, this pact would offer a diplomatic prestige and strategic relevance during the time of highly volatile security situation, when already South Asia marked as an ‘Arc of Turbulence’, and regional isolation. Moreover, Pakistan’s economic fragility and foreign reserves hovering around $8 billion coupled with a very high inflation exceeding 25% (State Bank of Pakistan, 2025). Thus, Islamabad is keen to secure financial and political backing from Riyadh. Thus, for South Asia, the pact can introduce a new variable into some already complex security equations in the region. It indicates that that Pakistan’s intent is to reposition itself as a regional player by leveraging military capabilities and Islamic credentials to heighten its strategic ties with Gulf monarchies. These recalibrations and re-engagements with the Middle East Region, could encourage Pakistan to dealing with India with geopolitically and geo-strategically, particularly on the contentious issues like Kashmir and cross-border militancy.
India’s Strategic Calculus
The SMDA, has serious implications for the South Asian regional security. However, India has responded very cautiously to the pact. It has emphasized both vigilance and balance in its diplomatic approach. The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) stated that India is reviewing the agreement to assess the impacts on both national security and regional peace. Further, the MEA highlighted that India expects that Saudi Arabia to take into account the “mutual interests and sensitivities” underpinning the India–Saudi’s wide ranging strategic partnership. However, the SMDA reportedly have committed both countries, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia to treat aggression against one as aggression against the other, raising the prospect of Saudi involvement in any Pakistan–India conflict. This perception was further substantiated with the confirmation by Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif, in an interview with Geo TV that under the mutual defence pact, Riyadh would come to Pakistan’s support if India attacks. However, he emphasized that the agreement is a collective defensive arrangement. Rather he clarified that the same is aimed at not any specific country. Moreover, it is defensive, not offensive pact.
On the other hand, Saudi Arabia has responded in context of SMDA, reaffirmed its commitment to the pact. Rather, emphasized that it is a natural extension of their longstanding defense and security cooperation with Pakistan. A senior Saudi official elucidated that the pact is not a reaction to any specific event but the same reflects the deepening of bilateral ties over time.
India’s Implications and Response
The pact has resulted into a transformative shift in South Asian regional security landscape. Under the clause of an attack on one country constitutes an attack on both, and commitments on part of both countries, can elevates Pakistan’s strategic posture and may introduce a new deterrent layer against India. Under its commitment, Saudi Arabia would back Pakistan by its financial, logistical, and potentially technological sources including military, that could embolden Pakistan in its conventional and strategic calculations. These calculations signal that future regional conflicts may take larger shape with major geopolitical geo-strategic consequences in the South Asian region.
It is also worth mentioning here that the pact did not explicitly mention nuclear assets, however, Saudi Arabia, with its vast financial resources and history of strategic ambiguity on nuclear matters, can support Pakistan’s nuclear infrastructure i.e., may be through direct/ indirect channels. Riyadh’s funding can ben for expanding the military-industrial cooperation, dual-use technologies, or may be facilitating access to advanced delivery systems. These strategic anticipations may fuel the assumptions of enhancement of threat perception for India.
India’s response can be multi–pronged diplomatic engagements. By combining strategic recalibration, diplomatic outreach, and regional coalition-building, India has the capabilities to counterbalance the pact’s implications and prevent strategic overreach by Pakistan. Secondly, India can adopt a developmental strategy over deterrence i.e., getting engaged Saudi Arabia, i.e., deepening economic ties through joint ventures including the digital innovation that aligns with Riyadh’s Vision 2030. Offering regional stability through various developmental programmes can address Saudi Arabia’s security concerns. Both sides can lesson from history that increased security threats led to arms race in one country often provokes others to follow the same suit. Thus, the developmental cooperation, not arms races, is the more sustainable path to South Asian and Middle Eastern security stability.