Gaza’s fault lines are less linear than meets the eye

Like much else in the Middle East, Gaza’s fault lines are less linear than meets the eye.

At first glance, it’s Israel, backed by the United States, against the rest of the world.

This week’s United Nations Security Council debate spotlighted that divide, with US Interim Ambassador Dorothy Shea as the only representative to accuse Hamas rather than Israel of breaking the ceasefire, reigniting hostilities, and worsening an already catastrophic humanitarian disaster in Gaza.

Similarly, Israel and the United States stand alone at first glance in supporting President Donald J. Trump’s vision of Gaza as a high-end beachfront real estate development void of much of its indigenous population.

The rest of the international community supports the Arab world’s alternative plan that calls for an end to the war, an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, the creation of a Palestinian interim administration of the Strip, and the temporary resettlement of Gazans in safe zones in Gaza while the war-ravaged territory is reconstructed to the tune of US$53 billion.

So far, it all seems straightforward. But dig a little deeper, and the fault lines begin to blur.

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A series of persistent but unconfirmed reports suggest that the United Arab Emirates may be privately more in sync with Israel than with its Arab brethren when it comes to Hamas and Gaza.

Mr. Netanyahu was not the only Middle Eastern leader infuriated by a meeting earlier this month between a senior US negotiator and Hamas, the first ever face-to-face US engagement with the group, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood that the United States has designated a terrorist organisation.

So was United Arab Emirates President Mohammed Bin Zayed, a staunch opponent of Islamist groups.

UAE ambassador to the United States, Yousef al-Otaiba, a close associate of Mr. Bin Zayed, lobbied the Trump administration to reject the Arab plan for Gaza drafted by Egypt and adopted unanimously at a March 4 Arab summit in Cairo.

Privately, UAE officials have complained that the plan failed to call for the disarming of Hamas and its removal from Gaza.

Mr. Bin Zayed did not attend the conference, sending his deputy prime minister instead.

Last month, Mr. Al-Otaiba described Mr. Trump’s call for the resettlement of Gaza’s 2.3 million Palestinians as “difficult” and “challenging.”

But when asked whether the UAE was working on a plan for Gaza, Mr. Al-Otaiba responded, despite Egypt’s draft of the Arab plan already having been circulated, “Not yet. I don’t see an alternative to what’s being proposed. I really don’t.”

Meanwhile, Emirates Leaks, a mysterious website critical of the Emirati government, asserted that the UAE had unsuccessfully attempted to persuade South Africa to withdraw or at least weaken the genocide case against Israel it filed in the International Court of Justice. The report could not be independently confirmed.

In an even greater blurring of the fault lines, the UAE, alongside Saudi Arabia and Qatar, is the largest shareholder in an investment firm headed by Jared Kushner, Mr. Trump’s son-in-law, with stakes in Israeli financial services group Phoenix Holding.

The Holding is invested in businesses listed by the United Nations Human Rights Council as operating in West Bank settlements deemed illegal under international law.

In a seemingly bizarre muddying of the fault lines, Mr. Netanyahu has kicked up a political storm with his attempt to fire Ronen Bar, the head of Israel’s domestic Shin Bet security service, in part for investigating members of the prime minister’s staff for their dealings with Qatar.

Eli Feldstein, Mr. Netanyahu’s former spokesperson, allegedly worked for a Doha-based firm that recruited Israeli journalists to write pro-Qatar stories.

Two other Netanyahu staffers, Jonatan Urich and Yisrael Einhorn, allegedly helped Qatar bolster its image ahead of the Gulf state’s hosting of the 2022 World Cup.

Israeli police this week detained two suspects in the case accused of bribery, fraud, breach of trust, money laundering. and illegal contact with a foreign agent. The suspects were not identified under a gag order placed on investigation details.

The staffers’ activities countered Mr. Netanyahu’s long-standing efforts to tarnish Qatar’s reputation and undermine its mediation role after having encouraged Qatar to fund the Hamas government in Gaza to weaken the Palestinian polity by perpetuating the rift between the group and the West Bank-based, internationally recognised Palestine Authority.

The blurred lines contribute to Israel’s ability to do what it wants with the Trump administration’s backing, even if its actions violate agreements, such as the Gaza ceasefire, negotiated with the help of the United States, Qatar, and Egypt, and accepted by Israel.

They also enhance Israel and the United States’ ability to blame Hamas rather than Israel for the collapse of the ceasefire.

In the latest iteration of efforts to get the ceasefire back on track, Hamas agreed to an Egyptian proposal to reinstate the Gaza ceasefire.

The proposal involves Hamas swapping up to six Israeli hostages and the remains of an unspecified number killed during the war in exchange for Palestinians incarcerated in Israel, negotiations on ending the war, and the lifting of the Israeli blockade that has prevented humanitarian aid from entering Gaza and cut off the supply of electricity in recent weeks.

Speaking to Al Jazeera, Hamas Political Bureau member Bassem Naim said the group’s acceptance of a 50-day extension of the ceasefire’s first phase was dependent on the mediators, the United States, Qatar, and Egypt, guaranteeing that all parties would engage in serious second-phase negotiations that would lead to an end to the war and Israel’s withdrawal from the Strip.

The problem is that whatever guarantee the mediators may give is unlikely worth the paper it would be written on, particularly given that the United States is the only country capable of pressuring Israel to comply.

“There is no force on the planet prepared to give Hamas assurances that if they give up their only card — the dead and living hostages — Israel would agree to all of its obligations. Hamas understands what Trump and Netanyahu are doing with the phases. They’re stripping Hamas of the cards it has left,” said veteran Middle East peace negotiator Aaron David Miller, who worked for both Democratic and Republican administrations.

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.