Since Sheikh Hasina came to power in 2009, Bangladesh has solidified its role as a key ally for India. However, her departure could potentially disrupt, if not reshape, infrastructure ties between the two nations.

Infrastructure and connectivity have become the cornerstones of this deepening partnership, as underscored by India’s Minister of External Affairs, S Jaishankar.

Bangladesh is India’s largest development partner, receiving nearly one-fourth of New Delhi’s line of credit commitments. Since 2016, India has extended three lines of credit to Bangladesh, totaling $8 billion, to bolster road, rail, shipping, and port infrastructure.

Among the many initiatives, the rehabilitation of six pre-1965 rail links stands out, with the sixth cross-border rail link between Agartala in India and Akhaura in Bangladesh being the crown jewel.

Inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Hasina on 1 November 2023, this vital link offers a new route from mainland India to the North East, circumventing the narrow and vulnerable Siliguri Corridor, famously known as the “Chicken’s Neck”, which is just 22 kilometres wide at its narrowest point.

A disruption in Indo-Bangladeshi ties could jeopardise this crucial connection, leaving India solely reliant on the fragile “Chicken’s Neck” for access to the North East.

Beyond rail, five operational bus routes currently link cities like Kolkata, Agartala, and Guwahati to Dhaka and Khulna. The future of these essential connectivity projects is now a pressing concern amid the “Bangla Spring”.

Another pressing issue revolves around the fate of the Chittagong and Mongla ports under the interim Bangladeshi government or any future administration.

In 2018, Bangladesh granted India full access to these two ports for transit and cargo shipping. The cooperation was further solidified in 2023 with the operationalisation of the agreement for the usage of Chittagong and Mongla ports, which will allow India to avail the services of these ports in Bangladesh for transit cargo between North East and mainland India.

The most pressing question for Indian statecraft amid the unfolding crisis is whether India will retain the operating rights to a terminal at the Mongla Port. In July 2024, India scored a strategic victory by securing the management of the Mongla Port terminal, though details remain under the wraps.

Looking ahead, strategically located ports in the Indian Ocean will become increasingly crucial for major powers. China, despite not being a littoral state, has already established a significant presence through its port investments in the Maldives, Djibouti, Gwadar in Pakistan, and Hambantota in Sri Lanka.

In this competitive landscape, investments in the Mongla Port could secure India a vital foothold in the Bay of Bengal and the broader Indian Ocean region.

Moreover, political turmoil in Bangladesh might also impact India’s first transnational power supply project by Gautam Adani’s Adani Power. The project has faced criticism in Dhaka for the “lopsided nature” of the Power Purchase Agreement, which many experts argue favours the Adani Group.

Amid all the uncertainties, one thing is clear: political instability in Bangladesh will have repercussions, and that includes infrastructure ties.