Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina meets Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, weeks before she was ousted from power. (Photo from X account of China’s vice minister of foreign affairs)
HONG KONG — Less than a month ago, Bangladesh’s then-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was in Beijing, shaking hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping and signing a slew of agreements. Now she is in exile, her government toppled by student protests that remind many of China’s own past.
The events in Bangladesh have upended a government in which China has invested heavily but paved the way for a new one that, experts say, might favor Beijing more. Yet, much remains uncertain.
“What if the relations between the students and army [go] wrong,” said professor Kanti Bajpai, vice dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School at National University of Singapore. Or what if “the interim government doesn’t perform,” he added. Still, many observers like Bajpai believe Beijing could be a major beneficiary.
While Hasina sought to balance her diplomacy between powerful regional rivals, she was perceived as closer to India, where she fled. “The opposition has always been closer to China,” Bajpai said. “It would seem that this puts China in a better situation in Bangladesh.”
Still, China has been treading cautiously since the Bangladesh protests erupted, and continues to do so.
In early July, hundreds of students took to the streets of Bangladesh after its Supreme Court decided to reinstall a quota system that reserves a significant amount of civil servant jobs to descendants of freedom fighters who had fought in Bangladesh’s 1971 liberation war.
Around the same time, Hasina visited China, where the two sides sealed cooperation agreements on matters ranging from the economy and trade to public health. China also offered Bangladesh about $140 million in aid and elevated their relationship to a “comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership.”
As the turmoil continued back in Bangladesh, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stressed at a July 19 news conference that what was happening there was an “internal matter.”
After clashes between police and anti-government protesters turned violent on Sunday, raising the total death toll to over 300, Hasina resigned on Monday. She was rushed to India by helicopter while triumphant demonstrators stormed her residence in Dhaka.
Protesters take pictures with the Bangladeshi flag inside the grounds of the Ganabhaban, the prime minister’s residence in Dhaka, after Sheikh Hasina fled on Aug. 5. © ReutersLate on Tuesday, the Chinese ministry made another statement: “China is closely monitoring the situation in Bangladesh. As a friendly neighbor and comprehensive strategic partner, China sincerely hopes that Bangladesh will restore social stability soon.”
While China may well find it easier to work with the next government in Dhaka, it “will worry about an extended period of uncertainty,” said Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Washington-based Wilson Center. “That’s something that Beijing can’t afford, given all its investments and other interests and equities in Bangladesh.”
China and Bangladesh established diplomatic relations in 1975. Bangladesh joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2015, and China invested heavily in Bangladeshi infrastructure projects — including a tunnel, still under construction, that is named after Hasina’s father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the founder of the country.
Based on an estimate from the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington-based think tank, China’s total investment in Bangladesh from 2005 to 2024 came to about $7.56 billion.
In May, the Chinese and Bangladeshi armies conducted their first joint military training. The state-owned Xinhua News agency said this was “conducive to enhancing mutual understanding and friendship between the two militaries and deepening practical exchanges and cooperation.”
The manner in which Hasina’s 15-year reign ended — in the face of a relentless student movement — is also sensitive for China.
In 1989, students in China protested for months over issues like inflation and corruption, until they were crushed on June 4 at Tiananmen Square in Beijing. Thirty-five years later, the incident is still a taboo subject in China.
“China would be the last country to comment on student protests, given its own history,” said Jabin Jacob, an associate professor in the department of international relations and governance studies at India’s Shiv Nadar University.
Frustration in Chinese society has been growing in recent years, fueled by issues ranging from high youth unemployment to a property crisis that is shrinking the asset values of many families.
The Bangladesh protests appear to have resonated with some young Chinese. One university student in Shanghai said he felt a moment of joy when Hasina resigned.
In 2022, he had been locked inside his university dormitory for months under China’s stringent zero-COVID restrictions. When young people in Shanghai started to gather and protest in November that year, calling for an end to the policy, he wanted to join, “but I couldn’t get out of my campus.”
On Chinese social media platforms, the Bangladesh movement has spawned many supportive comments. Some called it a “victory of the people.” One user wrote, “I salute to the brave Bangladesh people.”
Wen Kejian, a Hangzhou-based political researcher, said such voices are “a reflection of the emotions within Chinese society itself being expressed through an external event.”
source : asia.nikkei