by Hammad Baloch 15 September 2023
The possibility of false flag operations has been a recurring concern in the complex and often tense relationship between India and Pakistan. As India gears up for its 2024 Lok Sabha elections, problems have surfaced regarding the potential use of such operations for political advantage. The term “false flag” refers to covert operations conducted by one party to make it appear as though they were carried out by another, often with a specific political or military agenda in mind. This article examines the likelihood of India resorting to a false flag operation against Pakistan before the upcoming elections, drawing on historical events, expert opinions, and recent developments.
One of the most notable instances of alleged false flag operations in India-Pakistan relations is the Pulwama attack in February 2019. This attack, in which over 40 Indian troops lost their lives, was initially attributed to the terrorist group Jaish-e-Mohammed. However, suspicions have long persisted that it may have been politically motivated and orchestrated to secure electoral gains for the Modi government. The timing of the attack, just months before the 2019 general elections, raised eyebrows and led to accusations of political manipulation.
Several experts, including Ambassador Ashraf Jahangir Qazi, Air Marshal Waseem ud Din, and Dr. Mujeeb Afzal, have shared their concerns about the possibility of India using false flag operations before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections at a Seminar arranged by the Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies.
Ambassador Qazi emphasizes India’s historical use of Pakistan in its electoral politics, often by accusing Pakistan’s name and using anti-Pakistan rhetoric during elections. He suggests that Pakistan should raise this issue at the international level to counteract India’s false flag politics. Air Marshal Din highlights India’s tendency to use Pakistan to divert attention from its internal problems during election times. He specifically points out the volatile region of Kashmir as a likely location for such an operation. Dr. Afzal underscored the role of media and public perception in India’s politics. He also suggests that the BJP might wait for the results of state assembly elections before potentially engaging in a false flag operation.
Renowned Indian lawyer Prashant Bhushan has also sounded an alarm, warning that the Modi government may resort to false flag operations to secure electoral advantages. Bhushan’s concerns stem from believing that such incidents conveniently appeal to the BJP’s ‘nationalistic’ approach to gain electoral dominance. He parallels past events such as the Pulwama attack and the Balakot airstrike, both of which occurred in the lead-up to elections and were surrounded by controversy.
In parallel to Bhushan’s warning, Pakistan’s intelligence agencies have reportedly claimed to have exposed an alleged Indian false flag operation planned for India’s Republic Day in 2023 in the disputed region of Indian illegally occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK). This likely operation was intended to create the perception of “infiltration” in IIOJK, further highlighting the potential for such actions in the region.
The possibility of India resorting to a false flag operation against Pakistan before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections is complex and concerning. While historical events and expert opinions suggest that such tactics have been used, it is essential to approach these claims with caution and a commitment to transparency and accountability. False flag operations, if proven true, undermine regional stability and raise ethical and democratic concerns. As India moves closer to its next elections, democratic institutions must uphold principles of justice and truth and for diplomacy to remain the preferred avenue for addressing regional conflicts and disputes. The international community also has a role in monitoring and mediating the region to prevent potential escalations from such incidents. Ultimately, the delicate balance between politics and security in the world’s largest democracy hangs in the balance, with the potential for false flag operations casting a shadow of uncertainty over the region.