Excitement about Pakistan’s election is hard to find

Ayesha Siddiqa :

As Pakistanis prepare to go to the polls next week to elect a new government, the excitement on the streets that accompanied previous elections is missing.

The subdued atmosphere reflects a sense that the results have been predetermined this time, as the country’s powerful military has maneuvered to block out former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party.

Electoral manipulation is nothing new in Pakistan. Barring the 1970 election, which could be considered the fairest ever held in the country, the army has always meddled in the electoral process to help ensure the result would bring the party it favored to power. It then tended to find a way to remove that party when the situation became uncomfortable.

During the 1990s, prime ministers were removed through an amendment to the country’s 1973 Constitution, which empowered the president to sack a government. Since the revocation of the amendment in 1997 and the end of Gen. Pervez Musharraf’s term as president in 2008, the political system has been controlled through the removal of prime ministers while leaving the elected parliament in place.

Khan’s supporters are frustrated, watching their party being shattered and pushed aside to ensure it will not have much voice in the next parliament. A major blow was struck last month when the Supreme Court of Pakistan upheld a decision by the Election Commission of Pakistan to deny the PTI the right to have its party symbol — a cricket bat symbolic of Pakistan’s 1992 Cricket World Cup victory under Khan’s leadership — appear on election ballots.

The pretext was that the PTI failed to provide evidence of internal party democracy in terms of holding elections for party leadership positions. This test, though, has not been applied to the rival Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) or Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).

The decision will not just confuse voters looking for the PTI party symbol, but also means that victorious PTI candidates will be considered independents rather than members of a party bloc and thus wield less influence in parliament. A further consequence is that the PTI will not get a proportional share of the parliamentary seats reserved for women or religious minorities.

Khan himself will not be on the ballot either, as he has been disqualified from seeking office. On Tuesday, a court sentenced him to 10 years in prison for leaking secrets. Then on Wednesday, he and his wife each received 14-year sentences for corruption, making it his third conviction in recent months.

Khan’s nemesis is army chief Gen. Asim Munir, who has been going around the country with caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar trying to dissuade young voters from voting for the PTI and decrying the negative influence of social media. Munir has also ordered PTI street gatherings to be forcefully dispersed.

The young, who have been particularly supportive of Khan and eager consumers of PTI social media posts, account for around 44% of the electorate. If they turn out in large numbers next week, they may be able to deny a parliamentary majority to PML-N’s Nawaz Sharif, seen by many as the military’s favored candidate for prime minister.

Young voters may be able to deny a parliamentary majority to the PML-N’s Nawaz Sharif, center, seen by many as the military’s favored candidate for prime minister.   © Reuters

Aside from sidelining Khan, Munir’s other priority is to bring in a government that will support economic growth and stability and lead the country back from the brink of default on its debts — factors that may play toward PML-N strengths.

The next government will face the challenge of negotiating for more support from the International Monetary Fund. Nawaz Sharif’s brother Shehbaz, then prime minister, led the government’s talks with the fund last year. But the poor state of the economy and Pakistan’s deal with the IMF may keep the PML-N from fulfilling its election pledge to cut electricity bills by 30%.

Yet the new prime minister may have less influence over the economy than his predecessors, as the PTI, when it was on good terms with the military, brought it to the forefront of driving the economy — and the army’s position has only gotten more entrenched since then. Munir, for example, now serves as a key member of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, which was set up last year to bring in more foreign direct investment and implement the privatization of state-owned companies.

Despite the army’s support, Nawaz Sharif still faces obstacles to his return as prime minister, a position he last held in 2017 before losing support of the army and going into exile after being convicted of corruption.

For one, the numerous prosecutions of Khan could actually alienate some potential Sharif voters. The PPP — which joined the PML-N in a coalition government under Shehbaz Sharif after Khan’s ouster in 2022 — itself hopes to lead the next government.

Under the leadership of the young Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, the PPP may be able to draw the support of some PTI voters. Both the PML-N and PPP have been given free rein to campaign, much as the PTI was in 2018.

Many Pakistanis worry that the next government could be a weak coalition that will leave ample room for the army to preserve its grip on governance. As with the other countries going to the polls during South Asia’s busy 2024 election year, this vote will underscore the longevity of Pakistan’s electoral process, but not the strengthening of its democracy.

Ayesha Siddiqa is a senior fellow with the department of war studies of King’s College London and was previously director of naval research for the Pakistan Navy.