Election Watch: India

India’s next general election, in which voters will select 543 of 545 members of the Lok Sabha, the lower house of Parliament, is expected to be held between April 19 and June 1, 2024, before the five-year tenure of the current Lok Sabha ends in June. President Droupadi Murmu will subsequently appoint the country’s prime minister from the party or coalition that achieves a majority in the Lok Sabha. Incumbent prime minister Narendra Modi, who leads the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is favored to win a third term. Over 25 opposition parties have formed a big-tent coalition, the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), with the aim of defeating Modi and the ruling government. Although the Indian National Congress (INC), the major national opposition party, is a member of INDIA, several prominent regional parties left the alliance in January.

This assessment was last updated on March 27, 2024.

Opinion polls conducted throughout late 2023 project that voters are likely to award the governing BJP–led coalition a majority of Lok Sabha seats. In the most recent statewide elections, held in late 2023, the BJP won three of five state legislatures. The BJP and its coalition partners now lead 17 of India’s 27 states and 8 union territories. Modi himself remains enormously popular.

The independent Election Commission of India, which administrates the balloting, is generally considered to be free from undue political interference. However, politicized decisions relating to citizenship, such as the forthcoming implementation of the discriminatory Citizenship (Amendment) Act and a long-controversial citizenship register in Assam, may undermine access to the balloting for marginalized groups, particularly Muslims.

India has faced serious democratic backsliding in recent years. Prime Minister Modi has presided over the imposition of discriminatory policies and a rise in persecution affecting the Muslim population. Prominent critics of the BJP face increasing legal and extralegal retaliation for their statements. Rahul Gandhi, former leader of the INC, was initially disqualified from holding office in March 2023 as a result of a politicized defamation lawsuit; the Supreme Court intervened several months later to reverse his disqualification. Authorities have raided media outlets—including Indian news sites like Newslaundry and NewsClick, as well as international outlets like the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC)—in apparent retaliation over their reporting and commentary on the government and Prime Minister Modi. Meanwhile, evidence continues to emerge that opposition politicians and journalists have been targeted with Pegasus spyware, though the government denies any role.

Freedom House has identified the following as key digital interference issues to watch ahead of election day:

• Website blocks and content removals: Indian authorities frequently order the removal of online content about political or social issues, and sometimes block websites. Opposition politicians are sometimes targeted. For example, in March 2023, the government ordered Twitter to restrict over 120 accounts in India, many of which belonged to journalists, politicians, and activists who criticized an internet shutdown that month in Punjab or the government’s related effort to arrest Khalistani separatist Amritpal Singh. Indian authorities have asserted an increasing mandate to order large social media companies to moderate and censor online content at the government’s demand, particularly since the passage of the Information Technology (Intermediary Guidelines and Digital Media Ethics Code) Rules, 2021. Blocking websites or removing online content about politics, including criticism of the government, ahead of the election could limit people’s access to information about the balloting and candidates.
• Information manipulation: Political parties manipulate online narratives in their favor, including by coordinating with social media volunteers and partnering with hyperlocal influencers. The BJP reportedly manages one of the most sophisticated apparatuses for such manipulation, known as the Information Technology (IT) Cell. During the 2019 Lok Sabha election, for example, researchers found that information manipulation on Facebook, including the use of bots and fake accounts, benefited the BJP. Similar manipulation efforts during recent state-level elections in late 2023 sought to paint candidates in a false light, as with a video altered to depict Bollywood star Amitabh Bachchan criticizing the Madhya Pradesh government’s agricultural policy. Such efforts, including those using generative artificial intelligence (AI) services, may distort voters’ understanding of the issues at hand in the election and impede access to reliable information.
• Internet shutdowns: Local law enforcement officials regularly restrict internet connectivity, citing the need to restrict protests, quell communal tensions, or stop the spread of disinformation. Shutdowns have occasionally been imposed during election periods, as in several states during the spring 2019 general election. Connectivity restrictions imposed during election periods limit people’s ability to express their views on or access information about voting online, along with widespread economic and social repercussions.
• Arrests and prosecutions: Journalists, activists, and ordinary social media users often face arrest or prosecution over online activities that officials have deemed objectionable, including about political or social issues. Media professionals are especially at risk: in 2023 alone, journalists were arrested for reasons that included publishing a report on social media noting that a Haryana lawmaker had been accused in gambling case; posting a tweet that criticized the unabated ethnic violence in Manipur; and reporting on allegations of anti-Muslim bias in the Kerala police force for an online outlet. Such arrests during the electoral period impede access to information and press freedom, fuel self-censorship, and can threaten the integrity of election outcomes if candidates and party-linked figures are targeted.
• Online harassment: People who criticize the government often experience online abuse, especially journalists, politicians, activists, and members of marginalized communities. Such attacks are often coordinated: for example, a YouTube journalist who investigated the violent misogynistic harassment directed at her over her reporting in 2023 found that it appeared to originate from a loose network of Facebook groups and YouTube channels. Online harassment campaigns can drive people to avoid expressing their views about political or social issues, limiting their participation in election-related discussions online.

India has a score of 62 out of 100, with 100 representing the least vulnerability in terms of election integrity, on Freedom House’s Election Vulnerability Index, which is based on a selection of key election-related indicators. The score reflects that elections are generally free and fair, though held in an environment in which freedom of expression is shrinking. The country is rated Partly Free in Freedom in the World 2023, with a score of 66 out of 100 with respect to its political rights and civil liberties and Partly Free in Freedom on the Net 2023, with an internet freedom score of 50 out of 100. To learn more about these annual Freedom House assessments, please visit the India country reports in Freedom in the World and Freedom on the Net.