After a gap of ten years, elections for Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir’s (J&K) Legislative Assembly were finally held from September 18 to October 1, 2024. While the National Conference (NC) and its alliance partners won a total of 49 seats, giving them a majority to form government, the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) improved its vote share and bagged 29 seats, but all in the Hindu-majority Jammu region where it had won 25 seats previously. These results have several implications both for domestic politics as well as for the broader regional and international dynamics. These elections have once again laid bare the conflicting political interests of the two provinces of Jammu and Kashmir, and the ideological gulf that has persisted between them since 1947.
By the Numbers
A total of 870 candidates contested the elections for the 90-member Legislative Assembly, registering an overall voter turnout of almost 64 percent – a slight dip from the previous election’s over 66 percent. Srinagar district’s voters stayed away from the polls, recording a dismal voter turnout of just over 29 percent. The NC emerged as the single largest party, winning 42 seats, while its alliance partner, the Indian National Congress (INC), won 6 seats – all but one from Kashmir, with its Jammu performance hitting an all-time low. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), one of the dominant local parties in Kashmir, was reduced from 28 to 3 seats. The Communist Party of India (Marxist), also an alliance partner of the NC, retained its seat for the record fifth time from the Kulgam district, where it defeated an independent candidate backed by the banned Jamaat-e-Islami by nearly 8,000 votes.
The outcome of the assembly elections is consistent with the 2024 Lok Sabha general elections in which the Jammu region elected the BJP while the Kashmir region gave the mandate to the pro-autonomy NC and an independent candidate Engineer Rashid, a non-conformist politician with a strong Kashmiri nationalist stance who came out of jail on bail to campaign in the elections. The two regions have different demographics: the Kashmir Valley with 6.9 million population is Muslim-majority, while Jammu with 5.3 million population is broadly a Hindu-majority region with five Muslim-majority districts.
The local dynamics in these elections can be best described as occurring in a post-Article 370 context. In August 2019, the Modi government revoked Article 370, ending J&K’s autonomous status, and demoted the region to two Union Territories instead: J&K and Ladakh. Since then, the region has been centrally ruled through a lieutenant governor helming a largely non-Kashmiri bureaucracy that remains unattuned to local issues and sensitivities. While the new administration has implemented some governance reforms and initiated developmental projects, the rising living costs have created discontent among the public. More importantly, the lieutenant governor administration arbitrarily passed a series of far-reaching laws and amendments, such as the domicile laws, land laws and rules related to transaction of business of the government, which prompted the regional political parties to raise concerns about political disempowerment and marginalization of Kashmiris. In response to this concerns, however, the central government pursued what has widely been seen as a hardline Kashmir policy, arresting civil society activists and restricting political space for dissent. Consequently, public frustration grew, particularly in the Kashmir Valley, where many still remain incarcerated and the state has demonstrated increasing heavy-handedness and repression since 2019.
This political landscape set the stage for the assembly elections, with the tension between central rule and aspirations for regional autonomy at the forefront of the electorate’s minds. The regional political parties like the NC made restoration of statehood and reinstatement of Article 370 as their main campaign theme, which resonated with the people. The BJP, which as the ruling party is seen as the representation of the center, failed to win any seats from Kashmir, while its alleged local proxies like the Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party – through which the BJP attempted to fracture the Valley vote – also lost. The PDP, which had entered into a post-poll alliance with the BJP in 2014, got reduced from 28 to 3 seats, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with the party’s past political blunder.
Domestic Implications: Center versus Kashmir
The return of local rule after several years marks a shift in J&K’s evolving politics post Article 370’s abrogation. The win achieved by the NC-INC alliance, which opposes the abrogation of Article 370, opens up space for pro-autonomy politics, thereby complicating the BJP’s Kashmir policy. Since 2019, the BJP has encouraged new political entities in Kashmir to create an alternative discourse that is more aligned with the center and promotes integration with the rest of India, in an attempt to dent the traditional unionist parties like the NC and the PDP that are staunchly pro-autonomy. The BJP has continuously attacked them for “dynastic politics” that have ruined J&K. However, the NC not only succeeded in Kashmir but also got 7 seats from the Jammu region in these elections. This massive mandate gives the NC a much stronger political voice against the BJP.
While a pro-Article 370 and anti-BJP rhetoric catapulted the NC to power, the party understands the limitations of this confrontational approach. As the oldest political party of J&K, the NC has dealt with different central governments and knows that without New Delhi’s support, it cannot fulfill its manifesto promises to the people, some of which will require substantial central financial assistance. Additionally, with 29 BJP MLAs in the assembly, the NC will face a strong oppositional voice. It will be difficult to effectively govern a multi-religious, multi-ethnic J&K without balancing the interests of the different social groups and regions. This is likely why the party, particularly NC vice president and Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, toned down its rhetoric post win and is seeking a workable relationship with the Narendra Modi-led central government. Reaching out to the people of Jammu, NC’s president, Farooq Abdullah, also assured the people of an inclusive government.
Part of this pragmatism has also led the NC to seemingly backpedal on its campaign promise of passing a resolution challenging the central government’s abrogation of Article 370. This would have been a symbolic vote questioning the legal premise of the argument and supporting the view that J&K’s consent was required for the revocation. In any case, NC’s alliance partner INC would have been averse to such a resolution, given that the revocation of Article 370 has wide support within mainland India and any talk of its restoration may cost the party electorally. Thus, it may be more prudent for the alliance to push for the reinstatement of J&K’s statehood, which is a less contentious issue since Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah have already promised to do so.
Despite these accommodations, however, the NC-led government will have to deal with the lieutenant governor, who retains significant administrative powers under the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Act, 2019 (JKRA, 2019) to decide on matters of appointment and transfer of police officers and bureaucrats. Additionally, several provisions of the JKRA, 2019, restrict powers of the J&K Legislative Assembly. In this scenario, the winning alliance faces prospects of legal bottlenecks and limited powers, inevitably setting the stage for friction on key policy issues between the centrally-appointed lieutenant governor’s office and the popularly-elected government.
Regional and International Implications: All is Well?
The smooth unfolding of the election process in J&K and a healthy voter turnout provide New Delhi with a chance to project the situation in J&K as normal. Further, the victory of regional parties and the reinstatement of the provincial legislative assembly may help improve the perceptions of stability in Kashmir. This could potentially reduce international pressure on India regarding its human rights situation, especially since the government’s repressive Kashmir policy came under some scrutiny in the wake of the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019. The NC’s win may also provide some space for positive engagement with Pakistan. The party’s manifesto had called for the resumption of India-Pakistan dialogue over Kashmir and it supported Indian External Affairs Minister’s visit to Pakistan to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Meeting (SCO) Summit in Islamabad recently. The NC-led government may also push for the restoration of the political rights and freedoms of Kashmiris that were curtailed following the abrogation of Article 370. This may be akin to offering an olive branch to Pakistan, whose Kashmir policy post-Article 370 abrogation has focused on bringing international attention to the conflict and criticizing India’s actions against Kashmiris. While the return of a local government itself will not address the India-Pakistan conflict over Kashmir, it might contribute to reducing bilateral tensions and aid a potential thaw in ties that seems to be afoot post the SCO summit. However, much will depend on how the new government approaches issues like militancy and political prisoners – the key policy area where the BJP-led central government and the NC-led provincial government are likely to remain locked in a stalemate. Ultimately, the new dispensation in J&K would have to ensure economic opportunity, political autonomy, and peace and stability in order to improve the situation in the region and deliver on its promises to the people.
source : southasianvoices