by Rajesh Kumar Sinha 28 July 2023
The Indian political scene continues to be chaotic and dynamic as has been the
case since late 1970s. While post-emergency, the coalition experiment of disparate
political parties without any coherent leadership, ideologies and policies made its way
strongly into the hunky-dory of Indian politics, it became firmly established post-1989
general elections. The next 25 years till 2014, coalition politics and political instability
became a norm rather exception in Indian political system.
There have been some positive advocacies of coalition political experiments in
India. Some believe that coalition has in fact promoted democratic, transparent socio-
economic cum-political developments, reined in autocratic tendencies, enhanced
greater participation of varied social groups and promoted economic growth.
A detailed analysis of post-1989 political scene in India however, presents a
picture of mixed bag and missed opportunities. While economic growth and
development after years of what some call, Hindu Rate of Growth, has seen a credible
forward movement, the worst part has been an incessant political instability. The caste
politics played out explicitly by V P Singh through his Mandal Commission Report, in
fact led to a furthering of caste bias and prejudices in India.
The short-run governments of V P Singh, Chandra Sekhar, H D Deve Gowda
and Gujaral are classic cases of internecine political feuds marring the Indian political
culture for long. Even somewhat stable political coalitions of NDA under Vajpayee
(1999-2004) and UPA under Dr Singh/Sonia Gandhi (2004-2014) remained hostage to
frequent political dramas and slugfest. While Vajpayee had to be extra-accommodative
to demands of his tiniest of coalition partners, the UPA government made a great
number of economic, political and strategic compromises just to remain afloat and
survive politically.
Politically, this coalition business led to the growth of greater regionalism in the
form of regional parties and their leaders, many of who actually branched out of parent
political parties like Indian National Congress (INC). Regional parties like Nationalist
Congress Party (NCP), Trinamool Congress (AITC), Samajwadi Party (SP), Rashtriya
Janata Dal (RJD), Dravida Munnetra Kazgam (DMK), Akali Dal, Shiv Sena (SS) have
broadly evolved into family-run political entities that have fixed succession plans. All of
them have followed the lead of INC and their leadership process is entirely family-driven
and dynastic.
In the midst of such a volatile and unstable political scenario, the Narendra Modi-
led Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) swept the 2014 general elections and after almost three
decades, formed a national government with complete majority. In 2019, Modi did even
better and if his continued popularity and charisma are any indication to go by, then
2024 general elections too are likely to see a comfortable majority for his party and
government.
While 2014 victory for Modi government was not widely anticipated though
resentment against the then UPA government of Dr Singh and led by Sonia Gandhi had
been building for quite some time. There was disappointment, resentment, insecurity
and a sense of complete disillusionment with the UPA government. However, very few
political analysts could predict an emphatic Modi victory in 2014.
Since 2014 however, Modi has charted a different course for himself, his party,
opposition and the nation as well. He continues to be the most popular leader in the
nation since then; nobody in Indian political landscape actually reaches even closer to
him. His party’s unprecedented electoral successes are hugely attributed to his
personality, communication, attitude, integrity and micro-management of native issues.
The fact is that in spite of incessant personal attacks by the opposition, his image
of a workaholic, efficient, honest and detached of typical bhai-bhatijawaad so common
among Indian politicians and working for betterment of India and its citizens, continue to
find solace among Indians. Beyond his personal appeal and chemistry with common
masses, some of his works (out-of-box thinking) like Swacch Bharat, Ujjala Scheme,
JAM, Direct Benefits Transfer to poor and economically vulnerable individuals without
any discriminations of caste/religion, turning of India as the showcase for financial
inclusion, stupendous success of UPI technology, all have helped Modi to emerge as a
leader of the nation unlike most of his predecessors who turned out to be mere
politicians.
There have been grey areas no doubt like perceived and highly exaggerated
disinformation campaign as so-called democratic backsliding and growth of
majoritarianism in India, ably amplified by sections of Indian/western media and
armchair intellectuals settled in the west. The ones supposedly in the line of fire,
common Muslims in particular however, seem less perturbed than the elite activists,
academicians, journalists, politicians and intellectuals who incidentally almost all
happen to be Hindus with an inglorious track record of Modi bashing and acting as foot-
soldiers of Congress/left for decades.
No wonder, the coming together of women/men like Mamata Banerjee, Kejriwal,
Rahul Gandhi, Lalu Yadav, Akhilesh Yadav, Stalin, Uddhav Thakre, Pawar in the form
of I.N.D.I.A. (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) failed to inspire
confidence among Indians. Politicians apart, most citizens did not give too much of
attention to the making of this politically smart and opportunistic formation.
While Modi government has brought about some incredible positive
developments like transformation of banks/defense PSUs, infrastructure
(highways/expressways/railways/airports/ports/waterways/pilgrimage tourism) and a
national interest oriented pragmatic foreign policy and assertive diplomacy, issues like
severe unemployment, seasonal inflation, hyped up isolated law-order incidents and
ineffective state-communication are domains of concern that need to effectively handled
and dealt in with.
With almost all opposition leaders as political dynasts will be fighting the 2024
general elections for their political survival, Modi-led BJP currently stands on a confident
pedestal. However, a lot needs to be done in the next few months if not weeks not only
to inspire further confidence among electorate but also to fight an increasingly hostile,
disparate and opportunistic opposition alliance likely to run its campaign based on
disinformation and a perception battle where the current Indian government seems to
be lagging behind.