In August a student led mass uprising toppled the decade and a half long autocratic and kleptocratic government of Shiekh Hasina.
The Interim Government (IG) headed by Bangladesh’s Nobel Laureate is on a mission to democratize and improve transparency and accountability in Bangladesh. The IG commissioned a non-political technical Committee to investigate corruption in the public sector and produce a White Paper detailing the extent and magnitude of corruption that took place during the Hasina regime.
The ‘White Paper on the State of the Bangladesh Economy’ has since been released which provides a troubling glimpse into the nation’s developmental challenges, a legacy of the ousted authoritarian regime’s loot and horrific plunder that has emptied the national exchequer and left the nation with a huge debt. .
Stated GDP Growth and the Incongruities
Bangladesh’s economic performance in the years leading up to 2024 presented a complex scenario. Despite achieving relatively high GDP growth rates which reached 7% per annum in 2023, the White Paper revealed that this growth was characterized by unevenness, unsustainability, number tempering and a growing disconnect between the high GDP and the realities – stagnating poverty and deepening inequality – faced by a significant portion of the population.
The focus of the authoritarian regime on extensive infrastructure initiatives, favoritism in business dealings, and the overexploitation of natural resources significantly exacerbated economic inequalities, weakened the nation’s manufacturing edge, and led to a decline in environmental health.
The White Paper’s findings on issues such as the ‘middle-income trap,’ the ‘lingering pain of inflation,’ the ‘pitfalls of external imbalance,’ and the ‘growing burden of public debt’ underscore the systemic economic challenges confronting Bangladesh. The authoritarian political structure and the regime’s emphasis on short-term political gains, rather than fostering long-term, inclusive economic development, were responsible for many of these challenges.
In this context, the White Paper acts as an in-depth assessment of the Bangladesh economy, offering a measured and evidence-based appraisal of the nation’s development path. The observations illuminate the intricate relationships in an authoritarian rule, the deterioration of institutions, and the nation’s economic and social difficulties, highlighting the pressing necessity for a comprehensive reassessment of the country’s development strategy and political framework.
The findings of the White Paper regarding ‘institutional decay’ and the ‘lethal interplay of politics, business and governance’ highlight the deliberate erosion of Bangladesh’s democratic institutions in the context of statecraft. The accumulation of authority among a political elite enabled them to undermine the essential checks and balances necessary for preserving the integrity of crucial institutions, including the judiciary, the civil service, and regulatory bodies. The political leadership thus leveraged state machinery to prioritize their personal interests over the collective welfare of the public. The White Paper indicates that the decline in institutional integrity hindered the country’s ability to formulate policies and successfully execute development initiatives.
The White Paper brought to the fore the issues of disparities, marginalization, and the suppression of dissent. The divisions present in Bangladeshi society, such as increasing inequality, gender disparities, and the marginalization of vulnerable populations, indicate that the authoritarian regime favored the interests of its power base rather than striving for comprehensive development. This pattern of marginalization and unequal treatment exemplifies the characteristics of authoritarian rule, wherein the political elite strive to consolidate their power by prioritizing their core constituencies while stifling dissent from marginalized groups. The ousted regime mirrored previous administrations in its actions, which intensified social and economic inequalities, ultimately jeopardizing the nation’s enduring stability and prosperity.
Corruption
The White Paper’s deep dive into the widespread corruption in multiple sectors of the economy, including public investment and the banking system, is an opener and an indictment on the authoritarian regime’s role in facilitating horrific cronyism and rent-seeking.
The political elite exploited their influence to amass wealth for themselves and their associates, frequently undermining authentic economic progress and the well-being of the wider community. The pervasive culture of corruption undermined competition, discouraged private investment, and distorted the distribution of public resources, favoring projects and initiatives that served the extortionist zests of the ruling party’s supporters over the nation’s long-term welfare.
The observations regarding the ‘foggy visibility’ and ‘policy-mediated fragility’ in economic management highlight how technocratic decision-making is overshadowed by political factors within the authoritarian regime. This led to a situation where political leaders’ immediate interests often shaped economic policies, instead of a coherent long-term strategy for the nation’s advancement. The diminishing autonomy and trustworthiness of economic policymaking bodies, including the Planning Commission and the Bureau of Statistics, intensified this issue, weakening the efficacy of governmental actions and degrading the standard of public discussions surrounding economic matters.
Decline in human development
The White Paper highlighted significant decline in human development outcomes, showcasing that that corruption, and a pervasive neglect of priorities in the health, education, and labor market sectors adversely affected the human development component of growth.
Authoritarian governments frequently exhibit this characteristic, prioritizing the preservation of their authority over promoting the welfare of the populace. The regime did not achieve meaningful advancements in enhancing the nation’s human development indicators, resulting in a continued scenario where the population’s access to quality healthcare, education, and economic opportunities was significantly limited. This, consequently, strengthens the existing social and economic disparities that hinder the nation’s potential for sustainable development in the future.
Fake statistics
There is this instructive saying about statistics that “Figures do not lie but liars figure”, an adage that seemed to have played out fully during the 2009-2024 autocratic and kleptocratic reign.
The authoritarian regime attempted to manipulate crucial national data, including GDP, export earnings, and poverty rates, resulting in an inaccurate and misleading depiction of the economy. This approach negatively affected the credibility of crucial statistical agencies and the accuracy of economic data.Most authoritarian governments, and the 2009-August 2024 authoritarian government in Bangladesh was no exception, commonly employ this strategy to control and hype the narratives of progress and hide the true picture, the facts on the ground that are often in variance with the realities on the ground that hide the severity of the issues and the challenges the nation encounters.
As a result, this type of regime that lies to the nation and distorts data ends up undermining the usefulness and trustworthiness of data, thereby stifling opposition and evading responsibility caused by policy failures and mismanagement.
Key lessons and the way forward
While the White Paper serves as a sobering reminder that unchecked political power, lack of accountability, and the erosion of democratic institutions can have profoundly negative consequences for a nation’s long-term progress and prosperity, it falls short of explicitly proposing a comprehensive set of solutions to address the challenges it outlines. The analysis is robust, uncovering the complex relationships among political authoritarianism, economic mismanagement, and social inequities.
The White Paper’s primary contribution lies in its demand for a thorough reevaluation of Bangladesh’s developmental framework. It implies that genuine advancement necessitates more than mere surface-level changes—it calls for a fundamental overhaul of political culture, economic governance, and social frameworks.
It is essential to rejuvenate the democratic institutions of Bangladesh and reinforce the rule of law. This necessitates implementing strategies to protect the autonomy and effectiveness of essential oversight entities, the judiciary, and regulatory bodies while also addressing the detrimental interaction between politics, business, and governance that has compromised institutional integrity.
The White Paper emphasizes the imperative for a unified approach to address the widespread corruption that has infiltrated multiple sectors of the Bangladeshi economy. This necessitates the improvement of transparency, the fortification of accountability mechanisms, and the reduction of the impact of vested interests in the processes of policymaking and the allocation of public resources.
This highlights the necessity of shielding economic policymaking from overt political influence by enabling technocratic institutions and experts to guide the decision-making process through thorough analysis and a focus on long-term development goals rather than succumbing to immediate political pressures. It highlights the critical need for maintaining the integrity and transparency of economic data, which is essential for fostering evidence-based policymaking and informed public discourse.
The White Paper underscores the pressing need to confront the numerous divides and disparities present in Bangladeshi society, such as income inequality, gender gaps, and the marginalization of vulnerable groups. This necessitates a deliberate commitment to enhancing human capital, reinforcing social safety nets, and promoting more equitable access to economic opportunities.
In conclusion, the White Paper presents a significant framework for Bangladesh’s prospective recovery and sustainable development. The implications of this policy extend beyond simple technical modifications, necessitating a deep reconsideration of governance, economic strategy, and social equity. The primary difficulty resides in converting these insights into tangible, politically feasible reforms that can systematically restore institutional integrity, foster inclusive growth, and rejuvenate democratic principles.