By Olli Pekka Suorsa 20 March 2020
SYNOPSIS
China has expended significant resources in erecting seven artificial islands in
the Spratlys, in the South China Sea. The real worth of these artificial
islands may be in extending its coast guard and other paramilitary forces’
presence in the South China Sea.
COMMENTARY
MUCH HAS been written about China’s artificial islands in the Spratlys, South
China Sea. A lot of the debate has focused on the outposts’ potential military
value. The actual military potential in any near-peer military confrontation
would prove more of a hindrance than an asset for Beijing. The United States
military still holds more options to degrade or stop Chinese military
operations from those outposts in a conflict.
The real value those outposts bring to Beijing, however, is not in
their potential wartime uses but in the value they offer right now, during
peacetime. China has placed significant air and surface surveillance and
intelligence gathering capabilities on all of its seven holdings in the
Spratlys. The surveillance capability provided by these systems allow China to
effectively monitor all air and sea traffic — civilian and military — entering
or departing the South China Sea. This ability supports both Chinese civilian
and military functions in the South China Sea.
Sustained Presence
Even more critically, China’s Spratly outposts — in particular the three
largest islets: the Fiery Cross Reef, Mischief Reef and Subi Reef — have seen
frequent refuel and resupply visits from China Coast Guard (CCG) and sheltered
other paramilitary forces vessels like the People’s Armed Forces’ Maritime
Militia (PAFMM).
The ability to refuel and resupply in the artificial island outposts in the
Spratlys has greatly expanded both CCG and PAFFM reach and helped sustain
prolonged presence in the disputed waters.
The Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) has mapped the movements of
Chinese CCG and fishing trawlers broadcasting AIS (Automatic Identification
System) signal. The
gathered AIS data, tracking Chinese vessels, shows several CCG ships
operating in the South China Sea making frequent supply-runs to and operating from
the three largest artificial islands.
The AMTI recorded several ships, likely based at Hainan, sustaining weeks- and
months-long presence in the disputed waters, facilitated by intermittent
resupply visits to the artificial islands in the Spratlys.
Harassment of Other
Claimants’ Operations
During the most recent period of heightened tensions, from May 2019 until
January 2020, CCG ships harassed Malaysian and Vietnamese oil/gas exploration
and survey activities, and extended operations to Philippines and Indonesian
EEZs. In May, a CCG ship harassed Shell chartered drilling rig Sapura
Esperanza, near the Luconia Shoal (Block SK 308), over the period of two
weeks. Chinese ships have maintained frequent presence around the Luconia
Breakers since 2013.
Following a brief resupply visit in Hainan, the ship moved on to Vietnamese EEZ
on 16 June 2019, causing tense standoff between Vietnamese and Chinese vessels
lasting from mid-June till early July. This was the most intense standoff
between the two claimants since the 2014 HYSY981 oil rig incident that
unleashed anti-China protests in Vietnam.
Another vessel, a Chinese survey ship, HD-8, crossed into Vietnamese EEZ a few
weeks later, on 3 July 2019, to collect seismic data near Vanguard Bank (Block
06-01), supported by three CCG vessels. Any Vietnam Coast Guard attempts to
intercept the survey ship were met with CCG ships shooing the Vietnamese away.
Significantly, the HD-8 was recorded to refuel and resupply at the Fiery Cross
Reef at least once before returning to its survey station in Vietnam’s EEZ.
After finishing their missions there, several CCG ships, having called port at
the artificial islands, entered Indonesia’s EEZ, at the North Natuna Sea, in
January 2020. Upon departing Indonesia’s waters, the vessels returned to the
Fiery Cross Reef for resupply.
Elsewhere, Mischief Reef has supported CCG activity toward the
Scarborough Shoal, a maritime feature China took control over after a brief
spat with the Philippines in 2012. The third of the ‘big three’— the Subi Reef
— has received CCG vessels and maritime militia boats on their operations near
the Philippines’ Thitu Island, which lies just over 12 nautical miles from the
Subi Reef outpost.
China’s Extended Forward
Presence
Previously, CCG ships would have had to make supply-runs to Hainan, some 550
nautical miles north from the Spratlys. The sheer distance limited ships’
operational range and on-station time significantly. The new ‘forward bases’ in
the Spratlys have thus greatly benefitted the CCG in extending endurance and
reach.
Conducting refuel and resupply runs to the Fiery Cross Reef,
Mischief Reef and Subi Reef has facilitated the CCG longer loitering times and
help vessels reach further into disputed waters. The CCG presence is also typically
lauded by AIS broadcasting as if they want to be seen. The CCG vessels are
often seen patrolling near contested maritime features, especially near
features where China does not have any infrastructure of its own.
The near constant presence therefore is used to demonstrate Chinese ‘sovereign
rights’ over those waters. Simultaneously, CCG and fishing trawlers engage in
constant intimidation of other claimants’ fishermen, conducting illegal,
unregulated and unreported fishing, stealing catch or engaging in violence. The
CCG ships have asserted exclusive rights for hydrocarbon research well within
other disputants’ EEZs, harassing others’ similar activities.
Taken together, these assertive actions have served to assert Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea, based on “historic rights” and “sovereign rights”, and to deny others from doing the same. The CCG’s presence ensures that those rights are respected by others.
The military value of China’s Spratly outposts to Beijing in any
near-peer conflict is often overblown. Instead, the real value of those
outposts lie in extending China’s “eyes” and “ears” deep into the South China
Sea, creating a superior situational awareness in the region. They also
facilitate the CCG and other maritime paramilitary forces, such as the PAFFM,
near constant presence in Chinese claimed waters in the South China Sea.
The persistent presence and
frequent patrols by CCG around several key maritime features in the South China
Sea help Beijing assert its claimed ‘rights’ and ‘sovereignty’, bullying
littoral states to accede to China’s de facto control of the waters
within the so-called nine-dash line.
Olli Pekka Suorsa, PhD, is a Research Fellow at the Institute of Defence and
Strategic Studies (IDSS), S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS),
Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.