A J-20 stealth fighter jet of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. China’s development of high-speed weaponry such as hypersonic glide vehicles is driving global military designs. (China Daily via Reuters)
LONDON — China is learning from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and starting to prepare for a “protracted” war in the Indo-Pacific region by making legal changes that will help integrate military and civilian mobilization, an analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies said on Tuesday.
Recent moves by China to ease any return of reservists and veterans to their former units as well as give the military access to civilian infrastructure and fuel stocks show Beijing’s thinking about how to fight a conflict in the Indo-Pacific, said Meia Nouwens, senior fellow for Chinese security and defense policy at the IISS.
These changes suggest Beijing thinks an Indo-Pacific conflict might not be “a short, quick, swift victory after a surprise attack, but actually acknowledging that potential conflict might be protracted, and a war of attrition,” she told Nikkei Asia at the launch of the IISS Military Balance 2024, an annual report.
Beijing is studying Russia’s moves to cope with the war in Ukraine, she said. Moscow had thought it would conquer Ukraine in days, but fighting continues nearly two years later.
With the Hamas-Israel war in Gaza threatening to become a wider conflict, as well as coups in Niger and Gabon, Azerbaijan retaking the Nagorno-Karabakh region and China’s belligerence over Taiwan and the South China Sea, the London-based think tank warned of an “era of insecurity” in its Military Balance.
The report expects global defense spending this year to surpass the record $2.2 trillion for 2023, itself a 9% increase over the year before.
Chinese defense spending increased 5.4% in local currency terms to 1.55 trillion yuan in 2023 ($219.5 billion), according to figures from the Military Balance, for a 29th consecutive year of growth. This is equivalent to $407.9 billion, taking into account purchasing power parity.
Beijing’s assertive actions are prompting substantial defense budget increases in East Asia. Taiwan’s spending rose 24.2% in 2023, while Japan began its planned multiyear growth with a 10.5% increase in 2023.
The report noted “the current military-security situation heralds what is likely to be a more dangerous decade.” Robert Wall, editor of the report, said it is no longer Russia but China that is “driving the designs” of modernizing capabilities.
Though Moscow “talks a lot,” it does not have much to show on the field, Wall said. In contrast, “the Chinese are developing new weapons, they’re advanced weapons, they’re increasingly interesting in design approach, and they’re actually starting to get them out there,” he said, referring particularly to high-speed weaponry such as hypersonic glide vehicles.
“Washington is not obsessing about what Moscow is doing in terms of weapons capability. It is very much focused on what Beijing is doing,” Wall said.
The report also found that Russia now spends more than 30% of its national budget on the military. Since beginning its full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago, Russia has lost around 3,000 of its main battle tanks, roughly what it held in active inventory.
But the IISS estimated that given the scale of its stored equipment, “Moscow could potentially sustain around three more years of heavy losses and replenish tanks from stocks, even if at lower technical standard, irrespective of its ability to produce new equipment.”