by N.S.Venkataraman 15/2/2018
The present disturbed condition in the Maldives has made some people including opposition parties in the Maldives say that India’s military intervention is necessary.
It is now becoming increasingly clear that Pakistan and its friend China think that war in one form or the other, in cold form or hot form, is desirable option for them in dealing with India and bringing it to its knees,
China and Pakistan would be too pleased , if India would get into the muddled water in the Maldives by military intervention, which may even end up just like what Rajiv Gandhi government did in Sri Lanka by sending Indian troops to fight the LTTE forces several years back, leaving the Indian forces in a difficult situation.
India has to carefully weigh the situation in the Maldives , particularly because China would escalate the crisis if India would intervene militarily.
The Maldives – An opportunity for China
The problem is that China has the un concealed ambition to dominate and overpower the world economically or militarily or both.
Its first target is to dominate far east and south-east Asia where it seems to be already successful now to some extent. The Maldives is an attractive region for China in its ambitious target of dominating the nearby regions. It will not like to let go the present opportunity to entrench itself in the Maldives further.
Nearby regions now feel threatened by China :
China forcefully occupied peaceful country Tibet more than six decades back and drove out the venerable the Dalai Lama and his disciples mercilessly, and China has not been challenged by any other country. The world conscience remained silent, which only gave greater courage and confidence to China that might always be right.
China has already brought Pakistan almost totally under its dominance and control and it appears now that Pakistan is only an extended territory of China. China has invested huge money in Pakistan and has taken a stranglehold over the infrastructure projects and vital economic activities of Pakistan, and there is no way that Pakistan can get rid of China in the foreseeable future.
By extending loan, grant to economically weak nearby countries like Nepal, Bangladesh, Maldives, Sri Lanka and actively involving itself in participating in several projects in these countries as a dominant partner, China is well on its way to achieve its ambitious expansionist targets. It is now making claims on India’s Arunachal Pradesh and is deliberately creating conditions of war attrition in Doklan to subdue India in whatever way possible. It is also laying claims on the South China Sea, Senkaku island and others causing anxiety to nearby countries like the Phillipines, Vietnam, Japan, and others.
Given such scenario, India cannot remain unconcerned about the happenings in the Maldives , where China will do everything possible to exploit the confused conditions in its favor and further tighten the control over the region. China has already warned India that any military intervention by India in the Maldives would be viewed by it seriously.
Difficult options for Mr. Modi :
Given the warlike situation being created by Pakistan in Kashmir with obvious tacit encouragement from China and China;’s blowing hot and cold policy against India, the question is whether India can afford to go for military intervention in the Maldives, opening one more front.
Certainly, the government of India would exercise great caution. In dealing with the Maldives situation.
Possibly, the one option for India is to use the recently formed axis of USA, Australia, Japan, and India, to find a way out to ensure that the Maldives would not go under China’s control and become a region of instability. However, this axis still seems to be informative stage, and one cannot be sure whether this axis can be activated so soon.
Mr. Modi has difficult decisions to take and seems to have limited options.