by
*Balinder Singh and **Professor (Dr.) Jagmeet Bawa 3 August 2023
Introduction
Since gaining independence in 1991, Central Asian countries have been the focus of attention from the Arab world, which has sought to promote the revival of Islam in the region, often emphasizing fundamentalist tendencies seen in the Arab East. This has raised concerns in the West, leading them to prefer Turkey’s supposedly more secular approach to engaging with Central Asia. As a result, trade and investment between Central Asian and Arab states have remained relatively small, accounting for less than 1 % of the Arab world’s total foreign economic activity abroad. The outlook suggests that these economic flows are likely to remain limited in the near future. However, even small amounts of Arab investment could play a crucial role in assisting the Central Asian states in meeting their economic needs and also acting as a counterbalance to the influence of other external powers like Turkey, Russia, China, and the West. The latter’s objectives seem to hold greater significance, as the five Central Asian countries are considering adopting a common policy to form a regional bloc, enabling them to exert leverage against external influences and collaborate on matters like the equitable division of water resources among themselves. Such regional cohesion could enhance their collective standing in the international arena and strengthen their position in dealing with other major players in the global context (ILO, 2022).
Historical connections and trade routes
The historical and geopolitical context of Central Asia’s trade and cultural exchanges with the Arab world. The ancient Silk Road played a significant role in connecting Central Asia with various regions, including the Middle East. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Central Asian countries gained independence and sought new economic partners, with the Arab world becoming an attractive option due to its economic influence. Moscow has historically been interested in Central Asia and sees it as part of its sphere of influence. Cooperation between Central Asia and the Arab world could create new trade opportunities and connectivity, aligning with Moscow’s interest in developing north-south trade routes. This could impact Russia’s regional influence and control over trade flows. However, the situation is complex, and the outcomes depend on evolving economic and political developments in the regions involved. The cooperation between Central Asia and the Arab world could have a positive impact on advancing Moscow’s preferred north-south trade routes. By working together, both regions share common interests in achieving this objective, and their collaboration may contribute to the successful development of trade routes that run from the northern parts of Asia to the southern regions. This cooperation could foster greater connectivity and trade opportunities, benefiting not only the participating countries but also potentially providing an alternative trade corridor that aligns with Moscow’s interests in the region (Winter, March 29, 2016).
Recap of the significance of building bridges
Last week, (July 29, 2023) when the five presidents of the Central Asian countries met, all of these issues were prominently on display in public. The presidents of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, Emomali Rahmon and Shavkat Mirziyoyev, visited Jeddah to attend a summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council and Central Asian countries. Upon their arrival, they were received by the deputy governor of the Makkah region, Prince Badr bin Sultan bin Abdulaziz. Additionally, the President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, visited Madinah to pray in the Prophet’s Mosque before heading to Jeddah. The President of Turkmenistan, Serdar Berdimuhamedow, and the President of Kyrgyzstan, Sadyr Japarov, also arrived in Jeddah on Tuesday night. The summit is scheduled to take place on Wednesday. Leaders from Central Asian countries convened in Riyadh for a historic summit with United Arab, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and the Emirates. It marked the first-ever meeting between the two regions. The Central Asian presidents arrived with concrete proposals aimed at enhancing Arab trade and investment in their respective countries (Arab News, July 19, 2023).
Central Asia-Arab World Relations: Economic, Political, and Diplomatic Cooperation
The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, expressed his welcome and support for the adoption of a joint action plan between the Cooperation Council and the countries of Central Asia. The plan covers the period from 2023 to 2027 and focuses on various key areas. These include addressing issues related to political stability, fostering dialogue, enhancing cooperation in the economic and investment sectors, and establishing effective partnerships between the two regions. The joint action plan aims to strengthen ties and collaboration, contributing to mutual development and prosperity in both regions.
Central Asia and the Arab world hold promising potential in strengthening economic ties through trade and investment opportunities. Both regions boast valuable resources and markets that can yield mutual benefits. This enhanced economic cooperation can bolster their economies, fuel industrial growth, and spur regional development. Additionally, by aligning their interests on regional and global issues, political collaboration enables them to address common challenges like security concerns, regional stability, and geopolitical dynamics. Such collaboration may give rise to joint initiatives, agreements, and treaties that foster mutual understanding and cooperation. Establishing and maintaining diplomatic relations are crucial for facilitating communication and engagement between Central Asian countries and Arab nations. Diplomatic channels serve as a platform for official dialogues, negotiations, and building trust, ultimately promoting peaceful coexistence and resolution of potential disputes or differences. In summary, the amalgamation of economic, political, and diplomatic efforts paves the way for a more interconnected and mutually beneficial relationship, opening up new avenues for prosperity, stability, and cooperation in both regions (Trtrussiancom, July 21, 2023).
Collaboration on regional and global issues
The potential implications of Central Asia’s cooperation with Saudi Arabia and the Arab world on the influence of major powers in the region, particularly Moscow, Beijing, Turkey, and the Western nations. One possible consequence of Central Asia’s engagement with Saudi Arabia and the Arabs is that it may reduce Western influence in the region. The Saudis and Arabs may promote messages that counter those of Turkey, a NATO ally, and this could weaken Turkey’s impact on the region. It is more likely that the relations between active major powers in Central Asia and the countries in the region will remain relatively unchanged, regardless of what the Arab countries do.
However, there are two aspects that will likely change due to the Riyadh meeting. First, Saudi Arabia emerges as a significant winner from the summit, as the meeting enhances its authority in the region. This newfound influence may allow Riyadh to take actions that could reshape regional geopolitics, potentially challenging both Eastern powers like China and Russia, as well as Western powers. Central Asia’s collaboration with Saudi Arabia and the Arab world could lead to shifts in regional dynamics. While it may not significantly alter the relations between major powers and Central Asian countries, it has the potential to bolster Saudi Arabia’s authority in the region, potentially affecting the balance of influence among East, West, and regional players. Nevertheless, the exact outcomes are subject to uncertainty and complex geopolitical dynamics (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, July 19, 2023).
Geopolitical influence of major powers in the region
During the current summit, President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, expressed satisfaction with the increasing trade between Central Asia and the Cooperation Council countries. He highlighted the potential for further growth, proposing to expand the range of goods traded to significantly boost mutual trade. Kazakhstan specifically offered to increase its exports to Gulf countries by introducing 100 new commodity items worth about $400 million. Energy cooperation was also a prominent topic, with President Tokayev emphasizing Central Asia’s vast energy reserves, making the region the world’s second-largest after the Arabian Peninsula. As a member of the OPEC+ agreement, Kazakhstan expressed its appreciation for cooperation with the organization and willingness to deepen all-round collaboration. Diversifying energy transportation routes is a priority for Kazakhstan to expand its role as an energy supplier to regional and global markets. (Special Eurasia, July 18, 2023).
President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, proposed the creation of a single visa-free tourist space “Gulf – Central Asia” to strengthen human contacts between the regions. While visa liberalization and air traffic can boost tourism, reliable land, and water routes are crucial for trade in goods. Uzbekistan is working on developing such routes, including a railway route to the Indian Ocean through Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan. President Mirziyoyev called on partners to actively participate in the construction of the Trans-Afghan railway, connecting the Gulf states with Central Asia along the shortest route. Furthermore, Tajikistan’s leader, Emomali Rahmon, sought investment from Arab partners for hydroelectric power plants in the country, particularly the ongoing construction of the Rogun plant. Tajikistan’s interest in attracting investments from Gulf countries for the development of green energy was emphasized during the summit.
The gathering of Gulf nations with the Central Asian republics signifies their intention to strengthen collaboration and foster increased interregional cooperation. In the dynamic geopolitical landscape, each participant is striving to secure their interests and influence in this crucial part of the world. The meeting reflects the recognition of the strategic importance of the region and highlights the potential for deeper partnerships that can shape the future trajectory of both Central Asia and the Gulf states (Rhythm of Eurasia, July 24, 2023).
Conclusion
The outcome of the Riyadh meeting between Central Asian countries and the Arab world may not follow conventional expectations. While many anticipated closer ties between Central Asian states and the Arab world, the meeting could instead lead to the formation of a unified bloc among the Central Asian countries themselves. If the Central Asian nations come together as a bloc, it can have significant implications for external powers that have historically engaged with the region. In the past, some outside powers may have manipulated or played one Central Asian country against another to achieve their own objectives in the region. However, the unity of Central Asian countries could complicate such tactics and create a more formidable collective force. By acting as a united bloc, Central Asia gains greater leverage in dealing with external influences and asserting its interests. This unity could potentially challenge the strategies of other countries or organizations seeking to exert influence in the region. The meeting in Riyadh has the potential to be a turning point in the region’s dynamics, reshaping how external powers interact with Central Asia. The unexpected unity among the Central Asian countries may present new challenges and opportunities for other nations involved in the region’s affairs.
*Balinder Singh (Ph.D. Scholar), Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences, Central University of Himachal Pradesh, Dharmshala, India. Email: balinder15pol@gmail.com
**Professor (Dr.) Jagmeet Bawa, Head Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences, Central University of Himachal Pradesh, Dharmshala, India. Email: jagmeet.bawa@gmail.com
References
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