Brinkmanship and Blowback: How Israel’s Strike on Iran Changed the Middle East

0
45
Israel and Iran small flags on burning dark background. Concept of crisis of war and political conflicts between nations. Selective focus

Two weeks ago, Israel attacked Iran on the dubious grounds of decapitation Iranian nuclear sites, resulting in the elimination of top Iranian nuclear scientists, and military commanders of IRGC and the bombardment of several residential areas inside the Islamic Republic of Iran. The response from Iran was also severe and lethal by launching more than 400-450 ballistic missiles inside Israel which severely damaged the air-defense system of Israel, resulting in a direct military response from the USA on nuclear sites of Iran, especially Fordow, by using 13600kg bunker buster bomb. The Iranian response is cumulative in the form of targeting the headquarters of American military bases in the Middle East in Qatar. In the aftermath of brinkmanship from both sides, the American president offered a ceasefire, although fragile in nature, accepted by Israel and Iran, marking the end of deadly conflict in the Middle East.

First and foremost, Israeli military misadventure in Iran is a severe breach of the UN Charter and international law. Experts view that there is no imminent threat of Iran’s nuclearization, a view further confirmed by the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Tulsi Gabbard, USA Director of National Intelligence, stated a few weeks ago that Iran’s nuclear program was nowhere to initiate a weapon of mass destruction.

Therefore, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s assertion about Iran’s posing an imminent threat to the state of Israel was clever rhetoric for justifying the attack on Iran. Indeed, for the last 33 years, Netanyahu stated several times that Iran was just a few years away from nuclear weapons, which is never true since that day. Interestingly, it is Israel who became the prime source of instability in the region by launching unnecessary wars from Lebanon to Iran and committing genocide in the Gaza Strip by killing at least 55,000 people in Palestine, among which half of them were children and women.

Secondly, since the existence of its birth and especially after 7 October 2023, Israeli actions have proven several times it has no regard for the UN Charter, International law and norms. And, unfortunately, owing to Israel’s military aggression severely damaged international order which is based on the principles of non-aggression, peace and mutual harmony. Indeed, the era of globalization, peace, and harmony are buried somewhere in great power politics and rivalry of states.

Thirdly, the unabated aggression and militarism of Israel in the region of the Middle East is due to the support of Western governments, especially the USA. American administration has always a deep and strategic relations with the state of Israel on multiple levels such as political ties, economic and military partnership, technological and intelligence sharing and robust diplomatic relations. Many argued that Israel became the master of the USA controlling the foreign policy of the USA due to the deep penetration of Jews into American politics.

For instance, for years, President Trump was against the war with Iran or any other country in the Middle East or beyond, therefore he claimed to be an anti-war president. But unsurprisingly, he chose to go a war with Iran owing to feeling heat from Israel, although many American people and politicians, especially his political base “MAGA”, were against initiating a war with war. Despite that President Trump chose to target the deep-ground nuclear facility of Fordow by using b-2 bombs, another clear violation of international law by breaching the sovereignty of another state; however, in today’s world, there is no ground for respecting the UN Charter and international law.

Fourthly, diplomacy and negotiation become a dead horse. The timing of the Israeli attack on Iran was quite surprising because Tehran was involved in 6th round of nuclear talks with the USA which is facilitated by Europeans and Arab countries. Targeting the top negotiator of nuclear talks with Iran on 13 June by Israel gave a clear message that Tel Aviv didn’t want any kind of negotiation and diplomacy in the region for cooling off tensions. Meanwhile, during the war, when Iran was in talks with European countries for de-escalation of conflict, America chose to target Iranian nuclear sites, another brinkmanship for sabotaging diplomacy. Therefore, in the era of today, there are only lies, deception and cheating in the name of diplomacy.

Fifthly, despite the Israel-USA nexus and considerable losses on the side of Iran, Tehran managed the crisis effectively. Tehran can trade its ballistic missiles into Israel by destroying the overrated multilayer air-defense system of Tel Aviv, damaging the military edge of Israel. Various credible reports confirm that the effectiveness of the air-defence system of Tel Aviv has dropped to 30-35pc, marking the end of the psychological invincibility of Israel. Furthermore, it also dashed the hopes of Tel Aviv to bring a regime change operation in Tehran after decapitalizing its nuclear sites, because many experts inside Israel viewed that Tehran was weakest at the moment due to the crippling condition of the axis of resistance, especially diminishing capabilities of Hezbollah and Hamas and removal of the pro-Iranian regime in Syria. Nevertheless, Israel miscalculated the offensive nature of Tehran’s ballistic missile program and the resilience of its people and leadership. Therefore, attacking inside of Israel and American bases in the Middle East gives a clear response that any aggression towards Tehran will not go unpunished and establish a clear line of deterrence.

Lastly, the recent development in the Middle East is closely watched by both Russia and China. Bejing and Moscow condemned Israel-USA aggression against Tehran, ruling out any possibility of regime change operation in Tehran, which gave the signal of further deep ties among three anti-USA states because all these states faced American aggression in their respective region.

To summarize the whole picture, one can clearly say that cracks within the international order are quite visible, the first line of defense such UN Charter and international law are dead now. This suggests that a dangerous time is ahead before weak countries, therefore a strong military power, robust economy, high technology and unity among nations have become real currency against any external aggression.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here