The political transition following the ousting of Sheikh Hasina is gradually improving Bangladesh’s relations with Pakistan. © Reuters
Imran Khalid is a Karachi-based geostrategic analyst and freelance writer.
Bangladesh’s foreign affairs adviser, Touhid Hossain, recently said there is no longer any reason for relations with Pakistan to be strained. This statement carries considerable weight given the historical tensions between the nations.
This sentiment was further emphasized by the announcement that Pakistan Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar is expected to visit Dhaka in April. Such a trip would not be a routine diplomatic engagement; it would symbolize a thaw in relations that have been frosty for decades.
The implications of this shift are profound, not only for Bangladesh and Pakistan, but for the entire South Asia region.
The catalyst for this change can be traced back to August, when former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League government were ousted after 15 years in power. Hasina’s tenure was marked by a strong alliance with India — a relationship that was both strategic and deeply entrenched. Her government’s pro-India stance was evident in various bilateral agreements, trade partnerships and security collaborations. However, her removal from power has led to a noticeable cooling of ties with New Delhi. Hasina, who is currently in exile in India, represents a bygone era of Bangladeshi politics, and her absence has created a vacuum that is being filled by new diplomatic priorities.
One of the most striking developments in the wake of this political transition is the gradual improvement in Bangladesh’s relationship with Pakistan. Historical grievances, particularly those stemming from the 1971 Liberation War, have cast a long shadow over their interactions. The memory of this conflict has been a persistent source of tension.
Yet, despite this fraught history, there are signs that both nations are willing to turn a new page. Over the past six months, there have been several high-level engagements that suggest a thaw in relations. Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, the chief adviser of Bangladesh’s interim government, has twice met with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. These meetings are significant, not least because Yunus has yet to meet face-to-face with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
A mural of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is seen vandalised by protesters as people celebrate her resignation in Dhaka on Aug. 5, 2024. © ReutersThis contrast highlights the shifting priorities of Bangladesh’s interim government and underscores the growing importance of its relationship with Pakistan. Similarly, in November and December, two cargo ships carrying commodities arrived at Chittagong port — marking the first such arrivals since the 1971 war. These developments, though seemingly small, are indicative of a broader trend toward normalization.
The cooling of relations with India has created an opening for Pakistan to step in. Trade has emerged as a key area of development between Bangladesh and Pakistan. While bilateral trade remains imbalanced, favoring Pakistan, there has been a concerted effort to diversify and expand economic ties. Between August and December 2024, bilateral trade increased by an estimated 27%. To facilitate this, the trade bodies of both countries signed a memorandum of understanding on Jan. 13 to establish a joint business council.
Perhaps the most significant development, however, has been in the realm of defense cooperation. Since the political transition, there have been several high-level meetings between senior military officials from Bangladesh and Pakistan. In January, these officials convened in Pakistan’s Rawalpindi to discuss regional security dynamics and explore opportunities for joint military exercises, training programs and arms trading. Pakistan’s military described the two nations as “brotherly countries,” a term that signals a potential to reshape South Asia’s security landscape.
Adding another layer of complexity is China’s role as a strategic partner to both Bangladesh and Pakistan. India is particularly worried about the potential for Pakistan to use Bangladesh as a springboard to destabilize its northeastern states.
India’s concerns are further compounded by the growing defense cooperation between Bangladesh and Pakistan. Reports of Bangladesh’s interest in acquiring JF-17 Thunder fighter jets from Pakistan, jointly developed with China, have raised eyebrows in New Delhi. Such a move would not only diversify Bangladesh’s military assets but also strengthen the trilateral axis between China, Bangladesh and Pakistan. This development has the potential to alter the regional balance of power, compelling India to reassess its own diplomatic and military strategies in South Asia.
India must manage this changing landscape with a strategy that acknowledges the new dynamics in Dhaka. A more pragmatic approach — one that acknowledges Bangladesh’s evolving priorities while reinforcing historical ties — can ensure that India remains a central partner in South Asia’s shifting landscape. In the long run, fostering a stable and cooperative neighborhood will serve not only India’s interests but also the broader vision of regional peace and economic integration.
For all three nations, this evolving dynamic demands careful management. Bangladesh will have to balance its newfound partnership with Pakistan against its economic dependencies on India, particularly in trade, energy and raw materials. Pakistan, while eager to deepen ties with Bangladesh, must recognize that its ability to replace India as a strategic partner is limited by its own economic constraints. India, on the other hand, must reassess its approach to Bangladesh, addressing the grievances that have fueled anti-India sentiment while avoiding actions that could push Dhaka further away.
If handled with care, this evolving relationship could not only reshape the dynamics of South Asia but also serve as a testament to the power of diplomacy in overcoming even the most entrenched divides. The stakes are high, but so too are the possibilities: For Pakistan, Bangladesh and India, this is a moment to redefine their futures — both individually and collectively — in a region where history and geopolitics are inextricably intertwined.
source : asia.nikkei