GEN MM NARAVANE (RETD)
Bangladesh and India share a long and complex history, defined by both cooperation and tensions. Over the years, the relationship has evolved, shaped by political, economic, social, and security factors. Both nations have made strides in cooperation, including trade, infrastructure, and water-sharing agreements. However, the student-led demonstrations and violence in Bangladesh leading to the ouster of the Sheikh Hasina-led government, with Hasina having to flee to India in August, is perhaps the most overwhelming of the events of the year gone by. It has changed the dynamics of our bilateral relations, with grave security implications for India that can be directly attributed to the change in regime in Bangladesh.
This regime change culminated over two years of ever-increasing protests against a government that had lost citizens’ confidence. The extent of the anti-Awami League sentiment can be gauged from the backlash against anything connected to the party and its founder, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. That a persona who was revered as the Father of the Nation, was vilified and his statues desecrated, was the venting of public anger against years of repression and corruption. By supporting the Hasina government, India by association, also suffered from the backlash and is a factor in the prevailing anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh. Hasina’s continued presence in India further fuels this outlook.
Anti-India Bangladesh
The current dispensation, under Muhammad Yunus as Chief Adviser and various ministers, is using the anti-India sentiment as a rallying point to cement their positions. This fundamentally changed outlook impacts various dimensions of our bilateral relations, including security concerns, economic cooperation, and regional stability. The political direction taken by a new government in Bangladesh would have significant diplomatic consequences for India. Historically, India has maintained good relations with Bangladesh under the leadership of Hasina, whose government has generally been cooperative with India on issues like border security, terrorism, and economic partnerships. However, the pendulum has now swung the other way, as it has in the past too.
The rise of religious radicalisation in Bangladesh poses a major threat to India. Bangladesh, a Muslim-majority country, has largely followed a secular path since its independence in 1971. However, that is now changing with the growing influence of Islamist extremist elements. Leaders of religious groups like Jamaat-e-Islami (Bangladesh), Hefazat-e-Islam, Islami Andolan (Bangladesh) and Bangladesh Awami Olama League have openly called to make the country an Islamic State. The radicalisation of youth in Bangladesh and their association with global jihadist networks could fuel violence and militancy in our border states.
Illegal immigration from Bangladesh into India has been a longstanding concern, particularly in Assam, West Bengal, and other northeastern states. Bangladesh’s population is over 160 million, making it one of the most densely populated countries in the world. Economic deprivation, political instability, and climate change have driven many Bangladeshis to seek better opportunities in India. However, statements of some Bangladeshi politicians suggesting that the whole of the northeast including West Bengal, Orrisa and Bihar, is part of their ‘lebensraum’ are not conducive to good neighbourly relations.
Jingoistic statements by some former Bangladeshi service personnel—claiming that they could easily capture Indian territory—did not go down well. This even forced the Chief Minister of West Bengal Mamata Banerjee to react, saying that India would not be ‘having lollipops’ should external forces try to occupy our land. The only voice of reason in all this hullabaloo came from the Bangladesh Army Chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman, who said that India is an important neighbour, and that Bangladesh will not do anything that goes against India’s strategic interests.
Nevertheless, the influx of illegal immigrants poses several challenges to India with the ever-looming danger of demographic inversion—a threat first flagged by the former Governor of Assam, Lt Gen SK Sinha (Retd) in the 1990s. Many districts in Assam, particularly those South of the Brahmaputra adjoining Bangladesh, now have a Muslim majority. From a security standpoint, it is feared that illegal migrants could include extremists, criminals, or agents working for hostile foreign powers. On the demographic front, the presence of millions of undocumented Bangladeshis has led to tensions over resource allocation, social integration, and political representation, particularly in Assam. The National Register of Citizens (NRC) has been used to identify and expel illegal immigrants. The 2019 Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), which seeks to grant citizenship to non-Muslim refugees from Bangladesh, has also been a source of controversy and has exacerbated tensions between the two countries.
Economic ties, foreign policy, South Asia
Bangladesh has been one of India’s important economic partners, especially for trade, infrastructure development, and energy cooperation. Political upheaval and the prevailing anti-India sentiment in the neighbourhood could disrupt these economic ties. Bilateral trade has grown substantially over the years, with India exporting a wide range of goods, including machinery, textiles, and chemicals. Bangladesh exports primarily raw materials like jute, garments, and seafood. Political instability following the regime change has disrupted this economic relationship, affecting supply chains, tariff policies, and border infrastructure that facilitates trade.
India has been involved in several infrastructure projects in Bangladesh—roads, railways, and power supply. The Indian government has provided concessional loans for projects like the construction of bridges, roads, and power transmission lines, which aim to improve connectivity between the two countries. If the new government in Bangladesh decides to pivot away from India and seek closer ties with other countries (such as China or Pakistan), it could delay or even cancel these projects, undermining India’s investment in the region. Additionally, political instability might make it difficult to maintain the momentum for such cross-border projects.
The new dispensation could also change its foreign policy. For instance, if a new government in Bangladesh chooses to align itself more closely with China or Pakistan, as seems to be the case, this could have strategic consequences for India. Pakistani vessels have already docked in Bangladesh and the country’s unprecedented decision to invite Pakistani Army personnel to train its soldiers is a matter of consternation in Indian strategic circles. Bangladesh has already experienced significant Chinese influence through infrastructure investments under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and this trend could accelerate, leading to deeper geopolitical competition between India and China in South Asia.
India already faces inimical neighbours to its west and north and can ill-afford to have another one on its eastern borders, as it will further strain an already delicate security situation. Effective management of all possible threats will ensure that Bangladesh’s domestic compulsions do not destabilise India’s position in South Asia.
SOURCE : theprint