Balochistan Traditional Threat Matrix: States’ Comprehensive Approach to thwart it

by Muhammad Ali Raza    24 April 2023

Pakistan since its creation has been facing resistance from Baloch Sub-Nationalist. But since the start of China Pakistan Economic Corridor its Geostrategic and Geo-economics location attracts other key players to this province. When we talk about players they come with their agendas and some of them are called spoilers who do not want to thrive the project. These players use the classic tool of lobbying to not let the project launch in the host state. But once it fails then the spoilers come who use indirect means to sabotage the project. This is exactly what happened in the case of Balochistan where hostile intelligence agencies (HIA’s) of spoiler countries are trying their best to sabotage the economic corridor in Balochistan. These HIA are establishing their contacts with the dissidents of states to use them for their interest. For that purpose, they are fueling the already burning fire of Balochistan by facilitating them with tactical support and funds to carry out their desired activities and also to work on their anti-state agenda. Since the fall of Kabul, these activities were on the rise and surprisingly there were attacks on especially security forces in the area near the Pak-Iran border Gwadar’s vicinity area which predicts the real objective of the dissidents supported by spoilers. On April 7, 2023, the National security committee chaired by Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif was held at the Prime minister house. In this meeting, important cabinet ministers including the defense, interior, and finance ministers’ Armed forces tri-services chief of staff also participated in it.  During the meeting, the ongoing upsurge in terrorist activities in countries remained on the top of the agenda, including the overall security situation of the country and the need for a response to thwart these activities effectively.  The meeting agreed to launch an all-out comprehensive operation with the entire nation and the government, which will rid the country of the menace of terrorism with renewed vigor and determination,” the security committee said in a statement. After the 7^th April meeting there had been an increase in the intensity of law enforcement agencies’ Comprehensive approach including intelligence-based (IBO) in Balochistan to counter the HIA-supported threat matrix. The last time Pakistan adopted its offensive operation against terrorists was in 2014 which cost Pakistan billions of dollars and thousands of lives. But this time tactics and military approach instead of relying on a more kinetic-based operation is on intelligence information which is minimizing the chances of loss of life and produces cost-effective results too.

In my recent article for South Asia Journal “The Arrest of BNA Founder: state’s Resolve to maintain peace in Balochistan “I argued that there is a prevailing nexus between Tehreek Taliban TTP and the Baloch sub-nationalists organization. So this time so far the strategy of law enforcement agencies has been seen to break this nexus so that the TTP outskirts of Balochistan can be eliminated. On 7^th April 2023, Pakistan Army conducted an intelligence-based operation during which a high-value asset a Baloch sub-nationalist group leader Gulzar Imam Alias Shambay was arrested. It was a breakthrough for law enforcement agencies to break the bone of the hostile agencies network in Balochistan, Pakistan. On 9 April 2023, security forces completed a three-day long intelligence-based operation that was launched in Mach district west of Sibbi by forces on Friday night 7 April 2023. During this operation, 2 terrorists were killed and one of them was apprehended according to ISPR, the military media wing. These networks are continuously trying to sabotage Pakistan’s socioeconomic activity and development. CPEC is one of the biggest reasons why hostile neighbors are trying to make unsuccessful through such miscreants elements. But Pakistan is trying its best to not let this Baloch sub-nationalist become prey to these hostile intelligence agencies (HIA’s). On Thursday 13^th April Thursday security forces conducted an IBO in Hoshab, Turbat.  According to ISPR, this operation was conducted by the “Lead intelligence agency” The movements and whereabouts of miscreants were being tracked by agencies.

Just in a few days security forces have provided a breakthrough to the state now it’s the state’s turn to utilize this opportunity by engaging and attracting the local population towards a meaningful purpose. Especially the Baloch you must be taken in confidence by the government of Balochistan because the feudal lord sitting in Balochistan are also aggravating the grievance of those underprivileged Young Baloch minds who think it is the state not providing them their right but instead it is their feudalism that in not accepting the modernism because ultimately it would endanger their grip on the Baloch populations.  The state is not the enemy of dissidents (Baloch sub-nationalists) it always tries to bridge the gap of miscommunication between federal and Balochistan so that misunderstanding and foreign agendas can be countered but ultimately people like Gulzar Imam who ultimately fall into the hand of foreign handlers doesn’t let this happen. They sabotage not only the peace of Balochistan but also the future of their youth by providing them with guns and promoting their anti-state agenda. The state should like it come up with an effective strategy like DDR to counter Baloch insurgents and must come up with a disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration approach for the people of Balochistan. So the misguided youth and people can be reintegrated with society and they can also see the perks of development.