Always risky to predict what will happen in Bangladesh, but I am increasingly of the view that there is now no way back for prime minister Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League to govern normally in the country. Why do I say this?
(a) At least 155 people have been confirmed killed by law enforcing authorities but local observers are saying the true figure could well be many multiples of this number. The issue of “quotas” is now no longer the principal concern of students/supporters – it is the shooting of civilians by the state.
(b) The Awami League government has now lost a key rationale for its presence in power – its ability to allow the public to get on with their lives without political conflict and violence. A large proportion of the public in Bangladesh may not have liked the Awami League that much, were critical of its restrictions on freedom of speech/assembly etc and would rather it have allowed free and fair elections, but at the same time they appreciated the peace and stability that the party provided them, particularly since the opposition violence of 2015. However, now, it is clear that the Awami League cannot provide peace and stability in the future, and so it has lost a crucial basis for it to remain in power.
(c) Since Friday afternoon, the government has shut down the internet. It is likely this was done to: – stop images of killings and police violence from being shared online; – prevent people from accessing news from online media websites; – hinder students from being able to organise protests. However, the government cannot keep the internet blocked for too long – as so much of its economy is so dependent on it.
(d) Imagine then what will happen when the internet is opened again – there will be an outpouring of rage against the government on both social and online news media sites, and there will likely be an avalanche of highly critical social media posts about the police killings and violence, with photos and videos. This will feel overwhelming for the government.
(e) Since Friday night, the government declared a curfew and brought the army onto the streets. A curfew, enforced by the army, with apparent shoot to kill instructions, effectively brought to the end students protests, except in isolated places. But how long can this last. At some point in the near future, the government will have ro remove the curfew and allow the army to go back to the barracks.
(f) And when that does happen, there will surely be a huge resurgence of student protests (catalysed by by the outpouring of social media news etc discussed above) against the killings and the violence meted out by the law enforcing authorities. If the government allows the students to protest without facing police violence, then there is a good chance the protests will get bigger and bigger, with the involvement of more and more ordinary citizens, and the government would become overwhelmed. If the government uses the police to shoot on them again, the cycle of violence will start again, and the government will again be forced to declare a curfew and bring the army, something that would become unsustainable
(g) The Awami League government is not going to just resign – and there is no civil society entity independent or powerful enough to persuade it to resign. Remember, the government is authoritarian in nature, and has been willing to use brutal violence in the past to remove any threats to its position. It will do everything to hang onto power. The only way there can be a transfer of power away from the Awami League is if the army decides to take a role. And I believe the situation in Bangladesh could well force the army to make such a decision
(h) As set out in the thread written earlier (see below) the head of the army is loyal to the Awami League and he would do everything he can to preserve the government. However, due to a combination of the argument set out above, there will be a point where the army realises that in order to avoid chaos it will have to take charge, and this will require forcing the government to resign, taking over power temporarily, and hopefully allowing the possibility of free and fair elections.
(i) Of course the Awami League and Sheikh Hasina has managed many crises before – indeed one critic of the prime minister has described her to me as an “indestructible cockroach.” However, she has never had to deal with a situation quite like this one, and it would require quite monumental political skills on her part to remain in power after a crisis like this one, ironically a crisis completely of her own making.
source : The analysis is from David Bagmaman’s x handle