Dr. Manoj Kumar Mishra 25 October 2023
The militant outfit which was elected to administer Gaza strip in 2006 (no elections have been conducted ever since)- Hamas breached the Israeli security and intelligence mechanisms on October 7 and killed around 1400 Israelis within its territory compelling Israel to retaliate in response to the massive toll on its civilians in proportion to its population. Apart from the massive airstrikes which have already taken lives of more than 5000 Palestinians including more than the lives of 2000 children, Israel is contemplating sweeping ground operations against Hamas with an objective to obliterate the group from the strip. Meanwhile, the airstrikes by Israel continue to wreak havoc in the strip and it has warned people of Gaza to move south as the operations gravitate towards the northern city areas. Amid such operations, Israel is also targeting the Hamas sanctuaries in West Bank and Hezbollah cells in Lebanon.
The war is likely to turn into a regional and global conflagration unless contained by vivid diplomatic steps by the US – the lone superpower and trusted ally of Israel. The October 7 surprise attacks by Hamas and the resultant civilian deaths swayed public opinion and confirmed unflinching support of US, European countries as well as of many other significant state actors in favour of Israel’s retaliation.
Israel’s air, sea, military and intelligence control over the border areas since 2005 when Israel unilaterally withdrew from Gaza and the strip was left to the Palestinian Authority (PA) assured that threats from Gaza would largely remain under control and diplomatic channels could be regularly established. However, Hamas won elections in Gaza in 2006 squeezing the internationally recognised group PA out of the strip and started to administratively control it and conducted airstrikes in regular intervals without succumbing to the US demand for recognition of Israel. The casualties were minimum and Israeli reprisal could easily overwhelm the sinister designs of Hamas. The last massive and unprecedented attack by Hamas, however, was the last straw in the Israeli perspective considering the damage it did to the prevailing status quo.
Regional and Global Conflagrations
Now that Israel is apparently poised to wipe out Hamas, the ground operations will nevertheless be very arduous for different reasons. The operations will have to pass through difficult urban areas where ranks and files of Hamas and civilians cannot be separated. The areas are further riddled with difficult tarrains and tunnels which would facilitate Hamas to adopt guerrilla warfare tactics. Despite being a Sunni group, Hamas has been deriving support in terms of military and financial assistance and training from Shitte militant group- Hezbollah of Lebanon and from Iran. Hezbollah is a far more powerful militant outfit compared to Hamas and has the capability to strike any part of Israel with massive arsenal in its possesion. Although the group battered by its continued operations in Syria might have wished the Israeli operations to be a limited one and it might have fired rockets and shells just to demonstrate support for Hamas, Israeli move to take the war to its logical end and its reported airstrikes into the Hezbollah cells has opened another front to Israel and Hamas war. Emboldened by the unequivocal support from the US and its fleets arriving at the waters of the Middle East, Israel is poised to cross the Iranian redlines. Israel’s direct confrontations with Hezbollah would invoke Iranian involvement in the war. The diplomatic progress in relations between Iran and the US seems to take a reverse gear. Similarly, the more civilians die in the Israeli ground operations, the lesser legitimate the operations become and it would take away the much needed diplomatic support from the European capitals and other major powers for Israel. It even took much time to provide humanitarian assistance including life saving medicines, food and water to the people of Gaza with the support of Egypt. Despite warnings from Israel, it is highly unlikely that many people would be able to vacate their homes in the northern part and move South. The airstrikes on the medical in Gaza taking a large civilian toll is already shrouded in mystry and many Islamic countries blame Israel for the attacks. The Israeli actions are alienating the Palestinians who believed that the conflict between Israel and Palestine can be resolved through diplomacy and on the negotiating table including the PA. The diplomatic progress that Israel and the Arabic countries were witnessing by normalising their relations under Abraham Accords are not only stalled, they are likely to reverse. Indiscriminate and disproportionate use of violence by Israel and deaths of more numbers of civilians would push the Arabic countries to side with Hamas.
The Israeli long-term operations would make the diplomatic solutions to Russian war with Ukrine further difficult by driving the global attention away from that theatre of conflict whereas deaths and destructions would continue on that front too. Russia and its allies would like to see that happen. The Iranian involvement in support of Hezbollah would spur the American direct involvement in the war which would also invite the Chinese involvement despite its concerns for stability in the supplies of energy resources from the Middle East.