by Irfan Mahar 16 June 2023
Afghanistan is a multi-ethnic and cultural society with several ethnic, linguistic, and tribal groups. Pashtuns, Tajik, Hazara, Uzbek, Aimaq, Turkmen, Baloch, Pashai, Nuristani, Kurds, Gujjar, Arab, Brahui, Qizilbash, Pamiri, Kyrgyz, Sadat, and others make up the country’s population. Afghanistan is regarded as a terra incognita–a land of tribes, warlords, and imperial graveyards. Afghanistan has seen at least seven major conflicts since the formation of the modern nation-state between 1880 and 1929: the war of state construction and establishing a centralised authority between 1880 and 1901, the 1919 conflict, the war against Soviet invasion, the civil war among rival mujahedeen factions, and the war against US/NATO forces. Since the creation of the modern nation-state in Afghanistan between 1880 and 1929, the country has experienced at least seven major wars: the war of state construction and establishing a centralised authority between 1880 and 1901; the conflict in 1919; the war against Soviet invasion; the civil war between the competing mujahedeen factions; and the war against US and NATO forces.
Throughout the course of the nation’s history, the people of Afghanistan have endured a great deal of suffering and hardships, including militancy, instability, conflicts, terrorism, poverty, underdevelopment, corruption, and interethnic strife. Significant psychological, economic, social, infrastructural, political, and religious effects have been left behind by the bloodshed, wars, irregularities, disturbances, and unjust behaviour, not only on Afghanistan but also on the surrounding area and the rest of the world. The security situation in Afghanistan also got worse, especially following the Soviet invasion in 1979. Afghanistan’s population has suffered greatly as a result of the ten years of conflict between the Mujahideen, who were supported by foreign nations such as the United States, Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, China, and the United Kingdom, and the military occupation of Afghanistan by the Soviet Union and the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan.
The war decimated the nation and brought about death, destruction, dictatorship, anarchy, and mayhem. Between 562,000 and 2,000,000 Afghans are thought to have died, while millions more have fled, mainly to Pakistan and Iran. Following the Soviet Union’s defeat and departure from Afghanistan, civil war broke out among numerous mujahideen organisations and warlords. The Taliban seized control of the nation in 1996 and ruled it until 2001 in that game of thrones. In addition, the 9/11 attacks altered the nation’s security dynamics, which changed in 2001. Many terrorist organisations, most notably Al-Qaeda, joined forces with the Taliban at that time to fight against US and NATO soldiers in Afghanistan. The fate of the nation was altered by the 9/11 attacks on the Pentagon and World Trade Centre (WTC). America and its allies declared war on terror from Afghan territory. In order to arrest Osama bin Laden and destroy Al Qaeda and other extremist organisations that threatened global security, US and NATO forces invaded Afghanistan.
On August 15, 2021, US and NATO forces departed from Afghanistan after twenty years of conflict. Taliban seized control of the entire nation and assumed de facto control of Afghanistan. In this aspect, the Taliban have had difficulty gaining de-jure recognition; a recent tour of the area, which included stops in Moscow, Beijing, Tehran, and Ashgabat, was intended to promote Taliban de-jure acceptance. American and Western literature claims that Afghanistan is home to a large number of militant groups that operate there. While the Taliban disagreed with the data and viewpoints provided by the United States and other Western nations over Afghanistan. They believe that the information being spread about the Taliban and the Afghan people by the West and the United States is exaggerated, skewed, and exploited.
Taliban and other militant organisations view themselves as liberation warriors who have been battling against foreign occupation, atrocities, exploitation, and imposed conflict in order to maintain their independence and freedom. The majority of the material on Afghanistan that is now available demonstrates the existence of multiple militant organisations including Al-Qaeda, ISKP, TTP, ISPP, ETIM, Tajik Taliban, IMU, Fatemiyoun Brigade, AQIS, and many others. On the continents of Asia, Europe, America, and Africa, these groups have participated in numerous terrorist and militant acts. The regional and bordering countries of Afghanistan, including China, Pakistan, Iran, India, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, are deeply concerned about the operations of these extremist groups that may jeopardise regional stability. The flood of Afghan refugees following the Taliban takeover, drug trafficking, and the movement of foreign militants to other surrounding nations for terrorism are issues that all the countries in the region share.
The latest attacks by a militant organisation on Chinese people in Kabul worry the Chinese government. In regard to the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), China has frequently expressed its worries for national security. Beijing wants the Afghan government to ensure and get rid of any militant elements that are active in China’s Xinjiang region and among Chinese nationals in Afghanistan or anywhere else in the world. Regarding Uyghur Muslims’ connections to ETIM and its top officials, it has maintained its misgivings. The attack on a Pakistani diplomat in Kabul and numerous other attacks within Pakistan that the TTP claimed responsibility for further alarmed Pakistani officials about additional terrorist actions on Pakistani soil by other terrorist groups including the TTP and ISPP. Islamabad is concerned about the terrorist activities carried out on Pakistani land by the TTP, Alqaeda, and ISPP since these organisations constitute severe threats to Pakistan.
In addition, India perceives a threat from the actions of militant groups across the nation and from its operations in or from Afghan territory in Jammu and Kashmir. Similarly, if the security situation in Afghanistan deteriorates, Uzbekistan will face significant security and economic concerns. It’s also possible that under Taliban leadership, Afghanistan could once again serve as a base for jihadist and militant groups. For Uzbekistan, this might imply an increase in support for the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), an organisation that aims to topple the Uzbek government and establish an Islamic state. To guarantee that ISKP does not pose a threat to its borders, Iran maintains cordial ties with the Taliban. In addition, the Fatemiyoun Brigade, a Shia Hazara Afghan terrorist organisation is having trouble reintegrating into Afghan society and may join forces with the ISKP to defend Shia Muslims in Afghanistan. Countries in the region are concerned about the insurgency, threats, and insecurity on Afghan soil since the stability of the region is correlated with the security dynamics of Afghanistan.
The withdrawal of international forces, particularly the United States, has further complicated the security dynamics in Afghanistan. While the withdrawal was intended to shift the responsibility to the Afghan government and promote peace and stability. The hasty withdrawal has also raised questions about the effectiveness of the international community’s efforts in Afghanistan and its commitment to the country’s long-term security. Achieving lasting security and stability in Afghanistan requires a comprehensive approach that addresses both the internal and external factors at play. It is crucial to support the Afghan government in its efforts to strengthen governance, build capable security forces, and promote inclusive political processes. Regional cooperation is equally important, with neighboring countries playing a constructive role in supporting Afghanistan’s stability rather than pursuing their own narrow interests. Furthermore, international support and engagement must continue to ensure that Afghanistan does not become a safe haven for extremist groups that threaten regional and global security. Counterterrorism efforts should be enhanced, focusing on intelligence sharing, capacity building, and targeted operations against militant organizations. Humanitarian assistance and development initiatives should also be prioritized to address the root causes of instability, such as poverty, unemployment, and lack of education. Afghanistan’s security dynamics have had far-reaching implications for regional stability. Addressing these challenges requires a comprehensive and coordinated approach that includes the Afghan government, regional actors, and the international community. By prioritizing security, governance, and development, it is possible to create the conditions for a more stable and peaceful Afghanistan, which in turn will contribute to a more secure region as a whole.
The writer is Research Officer at Independent Research Institute based in Islamabad and PhD Scholar at the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies, Quaid-i-Azam University Islamabad, Pakistan.