by Dr. Manoj Kumar Mishra 5 August 2018
Afghanistan appears to be a quagmire in the face of the American strategy of war and peace. While Obama Administration’s peace and reconciliation efforts in Afghanistan shifted to a hardened stance towards the concluding phase of its term, Trump Administration’s coercive approach was quickly switched over to direct talks between the US and the Taliban on Afghan peace process as news reports suggest. Neither the Obama’s policy of aiding Pakistan nor did the Trump’s policy of withdrawing aid worked.
The US Administration under President Barrack Obama followed an Afghan policy under the rubric of ‘AfPak’ strategy which focused on Al Qaeda as its target and called for substantial military and economic aid to Islamabad not only to prop up Pakistan to bolster the American counterterrorism efforts, it also aimed at building schools, roads, and hospitals in the Pakistani side of Af-Pak border areas to undercut support-base of Al Qaeda as conceived under the Kerry-Lugar bill. The Administration drew down the number of American troops stressing on a timeline for American troops’ withdrawal and pushing for an exit strategy based on political reconciliation with the Afghan Taliban. On the other hand, it intensified air war in the form of drone strikes to liquidate the Al Qaeda militants in the border areas. So far as data on US drone strikes are concerned, the highest numbers of drones to date were fired in 2010. While the Obama Administration was successful in dismantling the Al Qaeda stronghold, the Afghan Taliban and Haqqani network replaced Al Qaeda as the primary threats to US forces within Afghanistan.
It was towards the concluding phase of the Administration that some of the earlier strategies were reversed. The plan of withdrawal of troops as was previously conceived to continue was given a pause, the policy of lavishing aid to Pakistan was rolled back. For instance, the US assistance to Pakistan scaled down from $2.177 in 2014 to $1.118 billion in 2016. The American Congress refused to subsidize the sale of eight F-16 fighter aircraft in 2016 which the Administration had committed itself to earlier. Though the frequency of drone strikes reduced drastically, selective strikes were conceived to dampen the strength of the Afghan Taliban based on robust intelligence information. For instance, an air strike was conducted in May 2016 resulting in the killing of the Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Mansour in Balochistan while he was allegedly returning from Iran. The concluding phase of the Obama Administration also witnessed two US Congress legislators undertaking efforts to introduce a bill designating Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism following the terrorist attack on Uri military camp in India. The Obama Administration’s stringent behavior towards Pakistan towards the end of its term perhaps stemmed from Pakistan’s alleged support for the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani network.
The Trump Administration’s Afghan strategies although marked a departure from the strategy adopted by the previous Administration led by Obama, the new strategy did not present a paradigmatic shift. The Trump Administration decided to begin where Obama left on the Afghan issue. It preferred to adopt a coercive approach towards Pakistan from the beginning by suspending military aid following a freeze of $255 million with the conditions that Pakistan must show commitment to fight terrorism. It believed in a coercive strategy to ensure Pakistan’s compliance with Afghan war efforts and undercut its alleged support for the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani network. The incumbent Administration also authorized an increase in the number of American troops in Afghanistan and resumed drone strikes perhaps driven by the belief that negotiations with the Taliban could only be pursued from a position of strength as the insurgent groups were still a resilient force even after so many years of reconciliation efforts. It is noteworthy that the Taliban declined an offer of the Afghan government led by Ashraf Ghani in February 2018 to abjure violence in return of political recognition, release of prisoners, issuing of passports and relocation of their families while the insurgent group accused the government of being an American puppet and demanded direct talks with the US Administration.
However, notwithstanding the Trump Administration’s efforts at tightening screws over Pakistan, his coercive Afghan strategy did not prove fruitful as there was a surge in the incidents of terrorist attacks allegedly propped up by Pakistan as a retaliatory response to US action and in a bid to show its influence over the insurgents in Afghanistan. For example, after Kabul ambulance bombing death toll reached beyond hundred, the head of Afghanistan’s intelligence service, National Directorate of Security (NDS) Masoom Stanekzai stated that these actions were deadly attempts by the Pakistani backers of the insurgency to show they cannot be sidelined.
The American Afghan gestures are now poised towards pursuing peace talks directly with the Afghan Taliban. Peace talks from a position of weakness in a hasty attempt to end 17 year-long Afghan war have raised concerns from within Afghanistan. It is believed that America is pursuing peace talks at a time when the Taliban’s sway is unfathomable both concerning territorial expansion and confidence after the adoption of successful war strategies. It is further believed that such efforts would only help push the agenda of the Afghan Taliban to form a radical Islamist regime while neutralizing and cornering the moderate political voices. By quickly switching over to peace talks from a coercive strategy, the Trump Administration also indicated palpable failure of the US in forcing Pakistan to commit itself to fight terrorism. Peace talks and negotiations approached from a position of strength can only yield positive results by tempering the radical ambitions of the Taliban and forcing them to bring to the table just the pursuable objectives within the framework of a stable and inclusive Afghan polity and society. By pursuing peace talks with the Taliban unilaterally without efforts at engaging regional powers like Iran, Russia, and India and assuaging their geopolitical concerns, the US would end up nowhere expect pandering to Taliban’s demands or else the talks would be suspended.
The new strategies conceived under President Trump’s South Asia policy do not seek to engage Iran and Russia in Afghanistan whereas Obama Administration opened up avenues for their cooperation by forging a nuclear deal with Iran and attempting to reset relations with Russia although conflicting claims and roles in Syria and Ukraine stifled such possibilities. Obama Administration adopted a dual strategy of cooperation and conflict with these two countries in his apparent and continuous overture of resetting relations. However, Obama did not assign any prominent roles to Iran and Russia on the Afghan theatre except expecting limited cooperation as and when it considered necessary. For example, the US sought Russian collaboration in supplying lethal and non-lethal goods to American troops in Afghanistan through Northern Distribution Network which included several transit corridors running through the Central Asian states. Russian cooperation was necessary as it not only enjoys significant influence in the Central Asian region; it considers the region as its strategic backyard as well. On the other hand, the Obama Administration cast Pakistan in a vital role to fight terrorism and anchor the reconciliation process to bring peace and stability to Afghanistan.
The Trump Administration pursued specific policies and was engaged in overtures which excluded the possibility of Iranian and Russian cooperation on the Afghan problem. Trump not only reversed the previous Administration’s nuclear deal with Iran by withdrawing from it, but he also put up new sanctions against Iran to build economic pressure on Tehran as part of his containment policy. Further, the Administration has palpably taken an interest in pursuing a trans-Afghan pipeline project to supply Central Asian natural resources bypassing Iran. The Trump Administration has, on the other side, accused the Russian government of its alleged role in arming the Afghan Taliban and undercutting American influence in Afghanistan.
Along with this, lack of any American policy of engagement, dialogue, and consultations with these powers on the Afghan issue has contributed to complicated atmospherics within Afghanistan. With American presence near the Iranian border, mounting economic pressure under American sanctions cutting down Iran’s oil supplies, and looming long-term geopolitical threat in the form alternative pipeline routes, Iran perhaps believes contributing to instability in Afghanistan by training and arming the Afghan Taliban would build pressure on the US forcing it to co-opt Iranian interests in the region. A recent surge in terrorist attacks in the western Afghanistan region is alleged to have been propped up by Iran as Tehran considers the region its sphere of influence and a bridge to Central Asia.
With Russia and America jostling for influence in Ukraine, Syria and Central Asian region, it is not farfetched to believe that Russia would also be interested to see a diminution of American influence in Afghanistan. Apart from this, ISIS presents itself more as a transnational threat in contrast to assumed domestic aspirations and role of the Afghan Taliban. Russia believes that ISIS as a more significant threat needed measures that would strengthen the Taliban as a hedge against the growing influence of ISIS. However, Russia believes that the US has continued to criticize it for its alleged role in strengthening the Taliban and undermining the American war efforts while underplaying the threat posed by ISIS.
The Quadrilateral Coordination Group which consisted of the US, China, Afghanistan, and Pakistan and was engaged in brokering peace in Afghanistan by bringing the Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban to negotiating table excludes Russia and Iran. The US continues to depend on Pakistan’s ground and air supply routes to supply goods to American forces in Afghanistan despite its apparent offensive gesture towards Pakistan. Souring of relations between America and Russia has prevented the US from promoting Northern Distribution Network as a feasible alternative to Pakistani routes while the strategy to roll back the nuclear deal and impose sanctions on Iran has pushed India – a strategic partner of the US to uncertainty over its role in developing Chabahar as an alternative route to Afghanistan bypassing Pakistan on which the US could have banked on for its Afghan supplies.
The euphoria over the US granting India Strategic Trade Authorization-1 (STA-1) status and easing export controls for high technology product sales which have so far applied to NATO allies cannot allay Indian concerns over the peace talks between the US and the Taliban. Pakistani sentiments and influence have not only limited India’s role on the security front, but it has also been sidelined in brokering peace being kept outside the Quadrilateral Coordination Group. India must be wary that if the Americans are planning to withdraw entirely anytime soon by forging a hasty deal with the Taliban, they are going to leave behind an Afghanistan which is much weaker and more fragile than ever before and India might be forced to redefine its role in Afghanistan.