it goes without saying that Pakistan’s establishment and its friends have been ecstatic since American President Donald Trump mentioned the country in his first joint address to the United States Congress. It’s seen as an achievement that a US president acknowledged Pakistan’s efforts in supporting American counter-terrorism activities. Trump’s gratitude towards Pakistan for apprehending Islamic State – Khorasan Province terrorist Sharifullah — involved in the 2021 Kabul airport attack that killed 13 American soldiers and dozens of Afghan civilians — is seen as recognition of the Pakistani military’s role in combating terrorism.
The excitement comes from the rare acknowledgement in a speech where Trump offered few kind words to other allies, including India and the European Union. There’s also a sense of relief, given that Trump had harshly criticised Pakistan in 2018, accusing it of “lies and deceit” despite receiving billions in aid.
US-Pakistan counter-terrorism cooperation: Real or superficial?
It must be noted that Pakistan is not in the big race where it gets bruised by trade tariffs. Of course, it depends on American and European special quotas for its textile sector, but we haven’t even got to the point where decision-makers in Islamabad are thinking about that. This is also because with the military in charge of the country, the primary thinking is on geo-political and geo-strategic matters. The critical thing at this juncture, as pointed out by Pakistani-American author Hassan Abbas, is that perhaps there is a sign of ‘resurrecting the dwindling US-Pakistan counterterrorism cooperation,” though he warns that “many challenges remain.”
The counter-terrorism dialogue, reignited by the Joe Biden administration, stalled due to diverging priorities—the US wanted help against ISKP and locating terrorists that harm American interests, while Pakistan hoped for some cooperation in teaching Taliban a lesson with Washington forcing them to rein in the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Islamabad must have seen little issue in securing American support in controlling the Taliban since the US provided financial assistance to Kabul.
- Trump’s speech: Pakistan’s establishment celebrates Trump’s praise for capturing ISKP terrorist Sharifullah, seeing it as recognition of military efforts.
- Counter-terrorism dialogue: US wants help against ISKP; Pakistan hopes to pressure Taliban to control TTP — but cooperation remains fragile.
- Geopolitical gamble: Pakistan may try to attract US investment in Balochistan minerals, risking tension with China and security challenges.
- Political calculations: Trump’s lack of interest in Pakistan’s democracy gives relief to the military, but long-term relations may stay purely transactional.
Now that Pakistan’s establishment believes it has opened a door with Trump by helping capture a high-value terrorist, the talks on Afghanistan and the Taliban can be pursued. There may still be more critical targets in the Inter-Services Intelligence’s (ISI) control that could be bartered at a later stage for keeping the conversation going. However, such a perception misses an important point that initial intelligence on Sharifullah came from the US, and Pakistan didn’t have much of a choice but to cooperate. Still, the establishment and its friends are eager to frame this cooperation as a win for Pakistan’s security apparatus. There is, of course, no mention in Pakistan of the hard fact that Islamabad could not have hung on to the ISKP terrorist the way it kept Osama bin Laden. The repercussions from the Trump administration would have been severe.
Nonetheless, the more important point, as sources in Islamabad indicated, is to use this moment to deepen the counter-terrorism collaboration. For Pakistan, that means acquiring US technology to monitor the Pakistan-Afghanistan border and prevent attacks like the recent Bannu cantonment bombing or clashes at the Torkhum border. At the same time, Islamabad hopes to draw Washington’s attention to the Taliban and TTP as threats to regional and global stability. If the US sees these groups as a direct risk to American interests, it might encourage stronger counter-terrorism ties. Yet, despite this opening, Trump hasn’t cut aid to the Taliban, which may continue through 2025.
Future of US-Pakistan relations: Military, minerals, political risks
There is certainly no sign of any deeper ties developing between Washington and Islamabad. In fact, Trump’s speech was followed by reports of a possible travel ban on Pakistan and Afghanistan. Or it could be a travel ban on Afghans traveling from Pakistan. Relations, at best, will remain narrowly transactional – focused on military cooperation. As a source in Islamabad argued, the US may even be interested in using Pakistani forces for future peacekeeping missions in Gaza. This, however, would be a slippery slope for Islamabad.
Moreover, Pakistan might try to draw American interest in its minerals, especially in Balochistan. Militarily and geo-politically, this would be a tough call. Firstly, it means competition with China, which is already engaged in drilling. Secondly, it will require beefing up capacity to secure American workers and companies, which the Pakistani Army has not failed to do for Chinese personnel. In case of a security lapse, the Americans will be less thoughtful and forgiving compared to the Chinese.
As for the excitement on Trump’s remarks, the political government and the military establishment led by General Asim Munir would interpret it as a failure of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) lobby in the US to draw attention to Imran Khan’s incarceration. Trump’s proverbial ‘pat at the back’ has brought relief to an establishment that was, up until now, nervous about the possibility of the new American president tweeting about Khan or demanding his release. The establishment will certainly ensure that the newly installed US administration does not dabble in Pakistan’s democracy or political matters and remains primarily engaged with Rawalpindi. This, indeed, is not an unachievable desire since Donald Trump is not bothered about democracy anywhere in the world or contesting hybrid or non-hybrid military regimes.
Ultimately, Trump’s acknowledgment doesn’t look like a door opening but a tiny crevice through which Pakistan’s establishment can breathe and impress its domestic audience of its continued global relevance.
The article appeared in the theprint