Will the proposed bill, that of One Nation, One Election (ONOE), as claimed by its supporters really contribute to strengthening Indian democracy and reduce expenditure in the electoral process? After being debated upon in the Parliament, the bill has been referred to a Joint Parliamentary Committee. This also implies that it has for the time-being pushed to the back-burner. There is nothing surprising about this. If it didn’t seem like floating a deflated balloon, it may not have pushed to the backburner. The question of the controversial bill being actually passed by the Parliament are at present non-existent. It was apparently introduced in the Parliament to gain people’s attention and of course that of media, to spread the “message” that its supporters were “serious” regarding it. Yes, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seems “keen” regarding its passage. Elementarily speaking, it’s passage would have been probably possible, if the party had returned to power with a massive mandate. Such is not the case. Besides, geographically, India is not a small country nor is its population low. It is at present the most populated country in the world. The situation would have also been different, if the population was distributed in an organized manner across a more or less similar terrain. Such is not the case. It may be noted, climatic differences have fairly recently led to recent assembly elections, earlier scheduled for around the same time, being held at different periods.
ONOE being considered implies holding of national elections, particularly parliamentary and that of state assemblies at around the same time. Is this possible? This implies campaigning by key national leaders of different parties at around the same time. Give a thought to dress used by certain national leaders, particularly Prime Minister Modi while campaigning for state polls. He tends to use the dress, people of that area may be familiar with and/or a celebrity of that particular state. As for instance, while campaigning for West Bengal Assembly polls, he tried appearing like Rabindranath Tagore by using his style of dress. When national leaders campaign, they receive media coverage practically throughout the country. This implies, his “Bengali-style” campaign would reach non-Bengali voters also, who may also pay attention to it as parliamentary as well as their state polls would be probably taking place at the same time. Chances of Modi’s Bengali-campaign moving voters in other parts of the country may be viewed as fairly limited. Rather, the same may not have the impact Modi desires in other states, including Maharashtra, Punjab, Bihar and so forth.
Where regional leaders are considered or leaders whose appeal is primarily confined to their respective states, they are least likely to be affected by how voters in other parts of country view their campaigns. Besides, the latter would be more concerned about nature of campaigns in their respective areas. And voters may not be too pleased about key national leaders going overboard in appealing for votes in other states. Politically speaking, the issue is not just of whether this ONOE will really lead to less money and time being invested in this exercise. What also needs to be considered is whether this electoral move, if implemented, will really help national politicians electorally at all levels where elections are combined. In context of preceding point, it really doesn’t seem to be a practical option. National politicians, particularly those choosing to campaign by adopting regional attires/moves when appealing for votes may not really gain.
At present, as timing of elections, parliamentary and all states doesn’t clash, the above mentioned problem doesn’t appear to have any negative impact on national and/or regional campaigns of key politicians at various levels. However, if and when the so called ONOE is actually implemented, there is no guarantee that it will not have. What perhaps also needs to be considered is the number of constituencies where the basic idea of ONOE is likely to begin with. There are more than 4000 constituencies in state assemblies. Added to this are 543 seats in Lok Sabha. One is compelled to deliberate here on how is the Election Commission expected to handle this task? How are voting, counting and declaration of results going to be organized? What about the security? Additional force of security will probably have to be recruited just for ensuring violence-free campaigns, voting and counting till the aftermath of announcement of results. Given that Lok Sabha elections are not devoid of these factors and nor are assembly polls, if the two are held together, prospects of the related problems being further aggravated cannot be sidelined.
Perhaps, the idea of ONOE was considered earlier in view of increasing importance of Modi-wave coupled with decline in prowess of the leading opposition party, the Indian National Congress (INC). True, it seemed as if the communal-frenzy was increasing, apparently serving political interests of right-winged extremists. The idea was probably based on the view that BJP would reach an unprecedented height, winning more than 400 seats in Lok Sabha, so it would be an easy task to introduce changes in this direction. Political developments have certainly not taken this turn.
Rather, given that BJP heads the central government with support of its allies, that the expected trend has reversed cannot be denied. While prevalence of communalism and attempts to spread it through social tools cannot be ignored, the reality that these strategies have ceased to have electoral impact on people as desired by politicians indulging in the same stands out fairly strongly. Voters are apparently giving greater importance to their socio-economic needs and progress. They have becoming highly conscious of communally oriented, religious designs of politicians’ key goal being their votes. And they, the voters have chosen not to be entrapped by this move. Not surprisingly, the mega-drama involving Ayodhya-temple failed to win BJP majority in 2024 parliamentary polls. These factors are clearly a pointer to limited, rather practically non-existing prospects of ONOE having the impact as had been apparently desired by BJP-stalwarts along with saffron-brigade at present or in near future.
There is no denying that the so-called Modi-wave is fading away and the opposition parties, particularly the INC, have a stronger political standing in the Lok Sabha than they did earlier. Besides, along with opposition parties, regional parties are against this bill as they fear that its passage bears a great risk to their political identity. Prospects of ONOE being somehow pushed through seem least likely. But if it is, it may take another decade or more, before being actually brought to the stage of being implemented. Temporally and strategically, prospects of it spelling political and/or electoral gains for BJP at various levels may be viewed as non-existent. Given the present political scenario, through its passage, perhaps even BJP has more to lose than gain. This may not have been the situation if BJP, banking on Modi-wave, appeared to be on stronger socio-political as well as electoral ground!