The fate of millions of war-torn people in Myanmar ominously hangs in the balance with an embattled junta reportedly preparing plans with Beijing for a “joint security company” to put Chinese boots on the ground that potentially could widen the three-year bloody conflict.
It’s an audacious strategy and not a total surprise given China’s in-country assets — primarily a 771km oil and gas pipeline — and that it remains the only country to have engaged with both sides in a civil war which has left more than 72,000 people dead, including 5,000 civilians.
Beijing, however, has inched its way into the junta’s camp over recent months and any “joint security company” can only mean China is now firmly onside with the military led by Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, which will have dangerous ramifications for all involved.
ASEAN’s five-point consensus is in tatters and some members will no doubt be upset by Chinese interference in a neighbor’s affairs. And where China goes, the White House under the next Donald Trump administration, will be sure to follow.
The mess in Rakhine
According to The Irrawaddy the junta formed a 13-member working committee to prepare the groundwork for a “joint security company” with China on Oct. 22, with a drafted MoU yet to be signed with Beijing.
In the meantime, Major-General Toe Yi, the military’s deputy home affairs minister, has been charged with “scrutinizing the importing and regulating of weapons and special equipment” which the military desperately needs.
By any measurement, such a plan is a testament to battlefield failures registered by the military at the hands of anti-regime forces who are now in control of much of the country and most of its borders with Thailand, Laos, China, Bangladesh and India.
According to the United Nations, the fighting, military air bombardments and its conscription policies have resulted in 3.4 million people abandoning their homes and farms. And late heavy floods — blamed on climate change — have ruined the latest planting season.
That means two million people in Rakhine and nearby states must deal with the prospect of a famine in 2025 as the Arakan Army (AA), one of 20-odd EAOs, battles it out with the junta where China’s prized oil and gas pipeline is under threat.
Most at risk are the Rohingya, a muslim minority that has lurched from one tragedy to the next and call Rakhine home, including the lands that run parallel with the oil and gas pipeline China needs to secure as part of its Belt and Road Initiative.
Billions of dollars have been earmarked for railway and infrastructure development along the corridor, attracting real estate speculation and providing the junta and elements within the AA with a financial cause to rid the region of the Rohingya. They want their land.
Gen. Hlaing is a wanted man
But any deal for a “joint security company” has been complicated by the International Criminal Court (ICC) where a request for an arrest warrant for Gen. Hlaing has been made.
The warrant is for crimes committed against the Rohingya in Myanmar and parts of Bangladesh between Aug. 25 and Dec. 31, 2017. Allegations of atrocities committed by the military since Gen. Hlaing orchestrated a coup d’etat in early 2021 are still subject to investigations.
Beijing is arguing the ICC has no right to exercise the warrant but Chinese allies are few. Of the 10 ASEAN states, Beijing can count on just two for support, Cambodia and Laos which rely heavily on Chinese largesse.
Four days after The Irrawaddy broke the “joint security company” story, tongues were wagging when Cambodia and Laos sacked their foreign ministers and brought back old-stagers Prak Sokhonn and Thongsavanh Phomvihane, respectively. Both hold long, strong ties to China.
Then, former Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen — who retains an overarching role in domestic politics since transferring power to his eldest son — traveled to China amid speculation he will seek funds to complete a US$1.7 billion canal. There will be a quid pro quo.
Hun Sen is on good terms with Gen. Hlaing and is widely believed to have offered him sanctuary, if required. But Phnom Penh is a signatory to the Rome Statute and would be expected to execute any arrest warrant should the junta’s chief ever step foot on Cambodian soil.
Beijing’s quagmire
China’s backing of the junta, despite the moral and military realities, perhaps reflects its success in Sri Lanka where it backed that country’s military in ending a 26-year civil war in 2009 and in return gained access to ports and trade routes.
That won’t be the case in Myanmar where, according to the Stimson Center, the military has effective control of less than 17 percent of the country and the UN warned in a Nov. 7 report of a looming famine and an “unprecedented disaster” in Rakhine state.
“Without urgent action nearly the entire population will regress into survival mode. They will be left to fend for themselves amid a drastic reduction in domestic production, skyrocketing prices, widespread unemployment and heightened insecurity,” it said.
It is a tragic scenario that Beijing might have to deal with while Thailand, Bangladesh and India will witness further waves of refugees in need of medical care, food and shelter.
ASEAN, which has rarely proved itself fit for purpose, will split even further with Indonesia, a powerhouse within the bloc holding shared Islamic sympathies with the Rohingya, the only regional candidate capable of leading any form of outside help.
Meanwhile, the military will take advantage of Beijing’s weapons sale with any type of Chinese reinforcements along the oil and gas corridor enabling Gen. Hlaing to redeploy and shore-up his defenses around Naypyidaw, Mandalay and Yangon.
That won’t be enough but the AA and each EAO and PDF, and the National Unity Government (NUG) in exile, must decide whether to hold ground and rethink their strategies with China in mind or take their fight into the major cities while they hold the advantage.
Conflict with Chinese sponsored militias is far from given but it is a prospect that needs to be factored into any political-military equation.
Myanmar was shaping up for a decisive year when many expected the EOAs, PDF and NUG to completely rout the military and end the war.
A “joint security company” might delay that but it will sorely test multilateral relations and it will be the civilians at home who will bear the brunt if this strategy is deployed and goes wrong.
source : uca news