Although Assad’s dethroning process started with the Arab Spring in 2011, thanks to the solid backing of his powerful allies in Moscow and Tehran, the motley groups of Syrian rebels and jihadists associated with al-Qaeda and ISIS, surprisingly with American/Western, Israeli, Turkish, Saudi, and Qatari support, took almost fourteen years to force Assad and his family to board a Moscow-bound aircraft, most likely for the last time for the former dictator and his family. Neither Assad nor his regional allies, Russia and Iran, anticipated the rapid downfall of the Assad regime (in just twelve days from November 27 to December 8), which may signal the end of Russo-Iranian dominance in Syria and its influence across the entire region.
It’s clear who is in control in Damascus, Idlib, Aleppo, and other areas of the country: radical Islamists. Specifically, those linked to al-Qaeda and ISIS, who were active from 9/11 until the fall of the Assad regime, have effectively taken over. Interestingly, the jihadists’ former major adversaries, including the US, Israel, and various Arab nations, have expressed enthusiasm for the overthrow of the corrupt and tyrannical Assad regime, even though opponents who have brought about this change they once considered arch-enemies, associated with Osama bin Laden and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Why is that? That’s the question. But the more important one is, what comes next?
Additionally, millions of Syrians have been displaced from their homes, with several million fleeing the country—three million of whom sought refuge in Turkiey alone. This humanitarian crisis has had profound implications for the region and beyond. A brief examination of the country’s history from 1919 onward helps us understand what went wrong, affecting not only Syria but also the broader region, including Turkey, the Arab world, and Iran. Furthermore, it allows us to consider the likely scenarios in both the short and long term.
Until the end of World War I Syria was a province of the Ottoman Khilafat or Empire. Syria, aka Greater Syria, incorporated Palestine, Jordan, and Lebanon as integral parts of the entity until the Treaty of Severs in 1919, between imperialist nations of Western Europe and Turkiey — between the victors and the vanquished. However, as desired by the League of Nations (created with the mission to “end all wars” by Western European colonial powers and the United States to serve their transcontinental extra-territorial interests), several artificial countries came into being in the Arab World. Syria became fragmented after three artificial entities emerged from Syria: Jordan, Lebanon, and Palestine. The League of Nations arbitrarily granted a mandate or the right to Britain and France to administer erstwhile Ottoman territories in the Arab World, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Palestine, and Lebanon for an indefinite period. Britain got Iraq, Jordan, and Palestine; Syria and Lebanon went to France.
Although nominally independent, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Palestine, and Lebanon were virtually under the mandatory Britain and France. Syria held its first Presidential election in 1949. Syrians elected a freedom fighter Shukri al-Quwatli (1891-1967) as President, who had fought for the unification of all Arab Ottoman territories, and was once sentenced to death by the French. In 1949, his presidency came to an end abruptly. President Truman’s Administration staged a military coup under Colonel Husni al Zaim (“The American Boy”). Syria’s political landscape changed dramatically in 1963 when Hafez al-Assad staged a coup. After this event, the Syrian faction of the socialist Arab Nationalist Baath Party took control of the country. Hafez al-Assad orchestrated coups until he became president in September 1971. While initially supporting socialism and utopian Arab nationalism, he later championed Palestine and Syrian nationalism within a capitalist framework. His pro-Soviet rule marginalized non-Alawites and Sunnis along sectarian lines. One-party rule promoted a cult of personality around him. Hafez Assad’s legacy, the Baath Party’s rule and the cult of personality surrounding Senior Assad were dominant until the overthrow of his son.
It’s, however, noteworthy that the ascendancy of the tiny Alawite minority sect – representing around ten per cent of the population of Syria – in the armed forces and civil administration was a French legacy. The Alawite belief system is notably different from Sunni and mainstream Shiite beliefs and practices. Founded in the 9th century, the Alawites view Ali, the first Shiite Imam and Prophet Muhammad’s son-in-law, as embodying “the physical manifestations of God.” They consider alcohol permissible in Islam and believe in the reincarnation of souls, regarding Ali as a divine incarnation of God. Additionally, they believe in the reincarnation of Muhammad, Ali, and Salman Farsi.
Between 1949 and 1955, America staged five military coups in Syria. From 1957 to 2024, the United States, Israel, and their Western allies made concerted efforts to establish control over Syria. It wasn’t until President Erdogan of Turkey supported the wave of the Arab Spring in Syria in 2011 that Junior Assad experienced significant unrest; prior to that, he was relatively complacent and at peace. However, thanks to the combined support from Iran and Russia, the Assad regime managed to withstand the combined attacks from Western powers, Turkey, Israel, and Islamist groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS. The devastating 13-year civil war resulted in the deaths of around half a million Syrians and others, with approximately five million Syrians fleeing the country—three million of whom sought refuge in Turkey.
Despite these harrowing events, the Assad regime survived, albeit ruling over a war-torn country plagued by extreme poverty, high unemployment, and widespread uncertainty. On December 27, Syrian rebels, primarily from the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), captured Idlib. They quickly went on to take major cities, including Aleppo, and ultimately seized Damascus on December 8. It took twelve days of final battles for Damascus for western weapons and Saudi and Qatari bankrolling to overthrow Assad.
Abu Muhammad al-Julani, a 42-year-old former activist with al-Qaeda and ISIS (who was once the target of a million-dollar ransom declared by the U.S.), currently leads Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a prominent anti-Assad rebel group. He also collaborates with other factions, including the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army. Despite his stated goal of establishing a Sunni caliphate upon entering Damascus, al-Julani is sending mixed signals, such as advocating for equal rights for minorities. The future of Syria under his leadership remains uncertain.
Meanwhile, what we have witnessed so far concerning Israel’s brutal one-sided attacks on Syria – across the “Buffer Zone” in the Golan Heights and more than 300 air attacks on Latakia Port in 48 hours, which have virtually destroyed Syrian Naval fleet – were unprovoked, with Netanyahu’s flimsy excuse of “saving Israel from terrorist attacks” by the kind of people who overpowered the Assad Regime. These pre-emptive, unprovoked attacks for carving out “Greater Israel” out of Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, and the whole of Palestine are likely to augur much more destruction and killing of people than what has so far happened in the Arab World since 1919.
Ironically, Netanyahu asserts that he defeated the Assad regime, a claim supported by Ayatollah Khameini, suggesting that he backed the rebels, many of whom have ties to al Qaeda and ISIS. Again, in justifying his unprovoked attacks on Syria, he blames the same individuals whom his government, along with America, Turkiye, and Islamist groups, armed and financed to overthrow the Assad regime!
The central question is why America, Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and various Islamist groups sought to overthrow the Assad regime. Since the end of World War II, the United States has often engaged in or initiated wars primarily to benefit its powerful Military-Industrial Complex. Additionally, it supports Israel, influenced by the strong presence of the Zionist Lobby in Washington. Israel’s motives are clear. For two main reasons, it aimed to weaken Syria, its arch-enemy since 1967: first, to eliminate this adversary, similar to its actions in Iraq and Libya; and second, to advance the Zionist aspiration of Greater Israel by seizing Syrian territories.
Across the Turkish-Syrian border, Turkey desires a friendly regime in Damascus that will not provide refuge to anti-Turkish Kurdish separatists. Alongside Qatar, Turkey also sought revenge against Assad, who refused to allow a pipeline transporting natural gas and LNG from Qatar to Europe through Turkey—an arrangement that would have benefited both countries. Assad’s alignment with Putin, who has been supplying oil and gas to Europe for years, likely played a role in this refusal, as it threatened the monopoly Putin wanted to maintain. Moreover, Qatar was dissatisfied with Assad for blocking its ambitions to sell natural gas and LNG to Europe via Syria. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations supported the overthrow of Assad to limit their mutual enemy, Iran, which had established a friendly relationship with the Assad regime.
The troubling consequences of the recent regime change in the Arab world suggest that no one will emerge as a clear winner. On the one hand, America, Israel, and Turkiey have achieved certain victories in the conflict, but these victories pertain only to specific battles rather than the overall war. The same can be said for the Islamists and jihadists involved. Notably, the three entities mentioned—America, Israel, and Turkey—don’t share any common interests with Julani and his group. There are significant reasons to anticipate conflicts arising in Syria and potentially in other parts of the Middle East shortly after the situation stabilizes there. Additionally, it’s important to note that the majority of Syrians have historically harboured strong anti-Israel sentiments, a feeling that existed long before the establishment of Israel in 1948.
In summary, starting in 2012 and continuing until Russia and Iran were deeply engaged in their conflicts with Ukraine and Israel, respectively, both countries played a crucial role in supporting the Assad regime by actively fighting against rebel forces. Fortunately for the rebels, there were no noticeable direct military interventions from Assad’s key allies in Moscow and Tehran during this period. Consequently, the reasons behind Assad’s need to flee and the subsequent takeover of Syria by the rebels are quite evident.
However, it is still too early and complex to predict the near or distant future of Syria and the broader region in relation to the fall of the Assad regime. As mentioned earlier, this war does not have clear winners or losers. The United States, Israel, and potentially Turkey appear to be the winners, while Russia, Iran, and the Baathist regime seem to be on the losing side. As former CIA operative and analyst Graham Fuller noted, “No situation remains the same for long…. Many hidden pitfalls we’re not aware of…. The US often selects unreliable allies.” We will need to wait to see the outcome of the dramatic changes surrounding the regime’s overthrow.