Nepali Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli begins his visit to China on Dec. 2. © Reuters
During his visit from Dec. 2 to 6, Oli is expected to request a waiver for the $216 million loan for Pokhara International Airport, which was built with loans from the Chinese government. The country’s third international airport has not attracted any international flights since its inauguration in January 2023.
Oli also aims to negotiate projects under China’s Belt and Road Initiative. However, his coalition is divided over whether to accept loans or pursue grants for the projects.
Nepal joined the BRI in 2017 under a coalition government between the Nepali Congress and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoists Centre). More recently, however, there have been concerns from NC politicians about falling into a Chinese debt trap.
Moreover, the current coalition — Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) and NC — harbors divergent views on the matter that could hamper the prime minister’s attempt to finalize BRI projects.
“If the Nepali Congress disagrees on the financial modality of the BRI, Oli wouldn’t be keen on going ahead with agreements,” Bishnu Rijal, a central committee member of the Unified Marxist-Leninist party, told Nikkei Asia.
However, Sudheer Sharma, an author and analyst on China-Nepal relations, said the NC’s opposition was a reaction to China’s earlier aggressive strategies and it might be waning. “Beijing’s preference for a communist government and the international dynamics forced the Nepali Congress to adopt a more assertive policy towards China,” he said. “Now, China seems to have realized the shortcomings of its past adventurism in Nepal.”
Nepal and China made significant agreements, including a trade and transit pact, during Oli’s previous terms as prime minister, who sought to reduce his country’s dependence on India. Now in his third term, Oli has been trying to build on this legacy, according to Sharma. “Oli has been a key figure in shaping Nepal-China relations,” Sharma said. “He seems intent on preserving this legacy, especially now with a coalition partner like the Nepali Congress, known for its proximity to India.”
China’s President Xi Jinping shakes hands with Nepali Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli as he wraps up a two-day visit to Nepal, in Kathmandu in October 2019. © ReutersNew Delhi, meanwhile, has been reluctant to engage with Oli, who twice has formally invited Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to visit Kathmandu.
“India seems to want to determine the agendas of the visit, the way it did with former Prime Minister [Pushpa Kamal] Dahal,” Rijal told Nikkei. “New Delhi is aware of crucial agendas, such as border encroachment, [that] Oli would raise in India — issues it doesn’t want to discuss.”
In 2020, during his second term, from February 2018 to May 2021, Oli frayed ties by including contested territory in Nepal’s northwest regions of Lipulekh, Limpiyadhura and Kalapani on its official map. Relations further deteriorated this past May, when Nepal decided to feature the map on its new 100-rupee notes.
Following a critical power-sharing deal between the country’s two largest parties — the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) and the Nepali Congress — Oli formed a coalition government in July after the NC withdrew support for Dahal, chair of the Maoists.
Capitalizing on public resentment toward India following a 2015 border blockade, Oli’s Unified Marxist-Leninist party formed a left alliance with the Maoists, securing a landslide electoral victory in 2017. The two parties unified in 2018 but split after Oli and Dahal in 2020 bickered about how to share power. At the time, Chinese ambassador Hou Yanqi’s offer to mediate was criticized as an attempt to interfere in Nepal’s internal affairs.
The Unified Marxist-Leninist party’s Rijal underscored the need for Nepal to balance its relations with its neighbors. “Nepal should avoid antagonizing or overly aligning with either India or China,” he said. “India’s primary concerns include managing open borders, cross-border terrorism and counterfeit currency smuggling, while China aims to enhance connectivity with Tibet and foster strong government relations in Kathmandu.”
As Oli prepares for his third trip to China, observers are advising the prime minister to put Nepal’s interests front and center. Sanjeev Satgainya, a columnist for The Kathmandu Post, recently wrote, “His China sojourn could go beyond simply breaking the so-called custom of prioritizing one neighbor over the other; it might even pave the way for a new approach. But this must be done in the best interest of Nepal, not to satisfy personal pride or vanity.”
source : asia.nikkei