The ambitious and unpredictable plan of Donald Trump about ending the Ukraine war within one day in office seemed to be ruined when outgoing President Biden allowed Ukraine to use US ATACMS missiles against Russian territory. On 19th November 2024, marking the 1000th day of the Ukraine war, Ukraine used the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) inside,70 miles, the Russian town of Karachev while taking escalation to a new level.
Meanwhile, Russian authorities offered serious warming about the grave consequences of using fatal weapons against mother Russia while stating that any American, British, German and French weapons used against Russia would be responded with severe consequences for these nations, and Russia has, then, right to drag these nations directly into war theatre. It is also noting that Russia, recently updated its Nuclear Doctrine which explicitly states that Russia has the right to strike with an N-Weapon in the case of a potential existential threat to its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Experts viewed that the possible use of the ATACMS system against Russia has raised the bright prospects of Nuclear War.
On the other hand, Ukraine, who already faced tough circumstances on its battlefront against fighting with a much larger army and country, counted its fate as doomed with the second homecoming of President Trump on 20th 2025 Jan. President Trump said multiple times that Ukraine war is fruitless and useless war which are exacting economic pressure and inflation on American voters; therefore, most of Republicans voters and Republicans Congress members sought to throttle economic assistance and aid to Ukraine, a critical blow to Ukraine war effort against Russia. In that scenario, experts observed that Ukraine has very little or no chance of regaining its Eastern territory under Russian occupation and is forced to sign a peace deal with Russia under a Trump watchdog. However, other observers believe that despite the seriousness of Trump to end this war, yet because of Ukraine’s weakness on the battlefront and hustling peace deal will favor President Putin cast a bad reputation among American voters as a sign of weakness against Russia, not to mention American military establishment and bureaucracy who showed full support to Ukraine war and wanted to weaken Russian on its peripherical ground.
Nonetheless, the recent development of the Ukrainian strike inside Russia seemed much surprise to many observers as outgoing president Biden and its base faced backlash over the unfettered support of the Ukraine war, resulting in the loss of the critical election. However, President Biden, whose ideological leaning was largely shaped by the Cold War (1945-91), saw winning the Ukraine war as critical to the future of European security, the fate of NATO and the American Order world, which is facing odds time due to relative decline of American power across the world. In that consideration, most of the experts felt that President Biden has agreed with most of the Ukrainian demands of missiles, artillery, air-defense systems, drones, anti-craft defense systems, short- and long-range ballistic missiles, F16 fighter jets, and ATACMS. A recent finding of the Council on Foreign Relations estimates that about $106bn has been given to the Ukraine government by the USA, among which $69.7bn has been provided for military assistance and defense of Ukraine against Russia, showing the great dependency of Ukrainian war-efforts in the fight against Russia.
Meantime, with the heightened risk of further escalation, Russia, who has alarmed its N-Weapons on its highest alert, stated that the West is dragging Russia into a Nuclear war scenario, where Russia has left with no option but to use tactical and useable nuclear weapon in Ukraine front. One has to be careful about warning of nuclear escalation as Russia has contained around 6000 nuclear weapons of which 1500 are currently deployed for nuclear strike, the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world, although experts view that Russian most critical ally China has warned Russia to go N-Weapon in Ukraine; therefore, despite facing significant loss in battlefront in both Ukrainian and Russian territory, including drone strikes in Moscow, Kremlin showed restrain to use any tactical nuclear weapon.
However, allowing ATACMS against Russia by Ukraine authorities on the green signal from Washington can’t be seen in isolation. Washington felt quite upset with the latest intelligence reports which confirmed that around 10,000 North Korean troops are on the battlefield line by line in the defense of Russia’s war effort against Ukraine. Inside intelligence reports confirmed that a recent meeting between President Putin and North Korean Supremo Kim Jong resulted in allowing Korean troops to fight in the Ukraine theatre along with potential military assistance, mostly in the form of artillery, provided to Russia, which is facing a deficit in production and continuation of military weapons in the battlefield. Additionally, other credible intelligence reports saw that Iranian drones are being used by Russia on the battlefield, although Tehran rebuffed such reports. So, external support by North Korea and Iran to Moscow forced Washington to allow ATACMS to sustain Ukraine’s war effort against Russia.
One has to note that Ukraine, despite unabated support from the Western world mainly from NATO and the USA, still lags in any major successful counter-offence against Russia since the outbreak of war; therefore, even after entering the 1000th days of the war, Russia still holds large swathe of Eastern Ukraine, around 20pc of Ukraine territory. Military experts believed that even with the support of ATACMS, Ukraine still struggles to balance its military power against Russia on the battlefield, due to the absence of manpower. So, still, Russia has the upper hand on Ukraine’s front.
Domestically, Americans are deeply divided on the fate of the Ukraine war, with the homecoming of Trump in the White House, the immediate agenda of Trump is to end the Ukraine war by offering a peace deal to both Russia and Ukraine. However, experts agreed that Russia will only concede to that deal which favors territorial gains of Russia in Eastern Ukraine, non-entry of Ukraine into NATO, and rollback of NATO Infrastructure near the Russian border. And again, such a deal will be accepted by the American establishment? Or Trump Himself? Or American voters? Simple Answer: No! Therefore, despite the seriousness of Trump to end the Ukraine war, the complexity of Ukraine will not provide an easy and readymade solution to an escalated crisis where no party can inch away from its principle stance. Ukraine to restore its territorial integrity and guarantee of not being again invaded by Russia. Russian demands of non-eastward expansion of NATO, including Ukraine never being incorporated into NATO, and rollbacking NATO infrastructure near Russian borders. America’s goal of win of Ukraine war at any cost, inflicting a major defeat against Russia for weakening Putin’s regime. Therefore, at critical analysis, one can observe that Ukraine is just a pawn in the greater game between the USA and Russia in European theatre, where the great power politics has been back into the business and Russia is seeking to reclaim its past day glory of dominance and hegemony least in Eastern Europe. Hence, another Cold War 2.0 has been fought between the USA and Russia in the European theatre of Ukraine where both sides are refusing to back any chance of a peace deal; Even with the clear mandate of ending the Ukraine war, the great power politics will fail Trump to uphold its promise of ending Ukraine war.