Electoral results of Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir Assembly Elections may be viewed as politically significant from several angles. Both have certainly defied predictions – based on opinion polls and exit polls. In case of Haryana, according to many exit polls, Congress was expected to sweep the polls. Well, this is certainly a clear signal to limited credibility of opinion polls as well as exit polls regarding electoral results. The two may also be viewed as a “news” which is primarily based on assumptions and not on facts- based on what the final verdict reveals. Besides, exit and opinion polls, include what is gathered from a minor percentage of voters. There is no guarantee that all voters may really reveal who they have chosen to favor. So the hype created by opinion and exit polls is best viewed as only an assumption or a speculation, more of manufactured “publicity,” “news” and so forth.
Undeniably, against backdrop of parliamentary election results, chances of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) performing poorly in Haryana and making way for return of Congress to power seemed strong. The political reality that Congress did give a strong fight to BJP cannot be dismissed. Against 39.94% of votes secured by BJP, Congress managed 39.7%. In other words, there were strong chances of it securing a majority. This also suggests that possibility of either party sweeping the polls were dim- in view of there being nearly a 50% division of votes between the BJP and Congress. Besides, nearly 80 out of 90 assembly seats’ results project either BJP or Congress candidates as the winner or in number two position.
This also implies, if other parties and/or independents were not in the fray, both parties would have probably won more seats. It may also be noted, both parties have won more seats than they did in last (2019) assembly polls. In 2019, BJP won 40 against 31 bagged by Congress. BJP succeeded in forming the 2019 government by an alliance. Now, having crossed the magical number, it doesn’t need to shake hands with non-BJP winners. Interestingly, Congress has also performed better than it did in 2019 elections. However, difference in votes won by parties places Congress in a better position. In 2019 assembly polls, while BJP won around 36% votes, Congress got 29% votes. This suggests, BJP’s share of votes has increased by three percent against 10% more gained by Congress.
Interestingly, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) chose to fight elections on its own strength even though it failed to win a single seat in 2019. Perhaps, AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal was “over-confident” about repeating the party’s performance in Punjab. At times, the party’s political strategy suggests that the party leader is probably over-ambitious about giving BJP a stronger fight than Congress. Speculations have also been voiced about AAP’s aim to help BJP gain by cutting into vote-banks of Congress. This is possible. It is held that AAP has tried this strategy in states where the key electoral battle is between BJP and Congress. Well, the party has the right to try its luck. AAP’s political gamble failed to win a single seat in Haryana this time also. Its political popularity here can perhaps be gauged by it winning less than two percent votes. However, if these two percent votes had favored either BJP or Congress, the state’s electoral results may have been different. It may also be pointed out that percentage of votes gained by other parties and candidates in Haryana clearly suggest that the primary fight was between BJP and Congress, which may also be viewed as that of Prime Minister Narendra Modi against Congress leader Rahul Gandhi.
The failure of Congress to “sweep” the polls as had been projected by most exit polls is also being viewed as inability of Rahul Gandhi to give Modi a strong fight. In addition, issues such as intra-party problems and others are being pointed out as responsible for failure of Congress to win the polls. Paradoxically, little attention is being paid to difference of less than a percentage between votes won by BJP and Congress. Equally important is the fact that in essence BJP has not swept the polls by winning more than 70, 60 or even 55 seats. In other words, Congress has not suffered a bad defeat. The percentage of votes won by both parties is similar to equal seats won by them in Lok Sabha elections. Neither BJP nor Congress has won more 40 percentage of votes.
Certainly, BJP must be credited with for returning to power in Haryana on its own strength. Congress has lost the battle but it would be erroneous to view its defeat as a miserable one. This is being said on ground of both BJP and Congress winning a little more than 39% of votes. It may be noted, this percentage is not reflective of BJP having returned to power for the third consecutive term by winning above 50% votes. Division of votes among the parties/candidates may be viewed as largely responsible for BJP securing majority in the Assembly and Congress failing to do so.
Just as BJP has defied predictions regarding Haryana elections, the same may be said about Jammu & Kashmir elections but from angle of its rival parties. Here, the alliance of Congress with JK National Conference (JKNC) party was expected to gain just an “edge.” Well the BJP has won only 29 seats against 49 won by the alliance with JKNC winning 42, Congress – six and Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M)- one. What is worth noting is that BJP’s seats rest on 29% votes against 36% of the rival alliance. Undeniably, People’s Democratic Party (PDP) tried cutting votes of its regional rival but won only three seats and around eight percent votes. AAP’s attempt did succeed in opening its account here by winning one seat. Considering the percentage of votes won by rival parties, elections cannot be viewed as a close fight between them in J&K while a totally different picture is that of Haryana results.
Certainly, BJP has reasons to celebrate its victory in Haryana, against the backdrop of its failure to win majority in parliamentary polls, it probably has a tougher challenge ahead in Maharashtra assembly polls. Here, BJP cannot be over-confident about its own strength and Modi’s electoral appeal. Regarding Congress, to a degree, its defeat in Haryana has been balanced by success in J&K. Its forthcoming performance in Maharashtra is likely to be dependent on how well the party and its allies manage their agreement on sharing of seats!