by Sudhanshu Roy
The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the fragility of global health systems, and India’s response under the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government stands as a stark reminder of the consequences of mismanagement. Recent studies suggest that the actual death toll during the pandemic’s first phase in India could be eight times higher than the government’s official numbers, highlighting a severe undercounting of fatalities. This revelation, coupled with the devastating impact of the Delta variant in 2021, underscores the BJP government’s failure to control the pandemic and its subsequent efforts to obscure the truth from the public.
When the pandemic first hit, India implemented one of the world’s strictest lockdowns. Initially, this measure seemed to suggest that the country had escaped the worst effects of COVID-19. However, the recent study published in Science Advances reveals a different narrative. It found that India experienced 1.19 million excess deaths in 2020, compared to the 148,738 deaths officially reported. This discrepancy indicates that the government’s response was not only insufficient but also inadequately reported.
The Delta variant’s arrival in 2021 brought India’s healthcare system to its knees. Hospitals ran out of beds and oxygen, and many patients died outside healthcare facilities, unable to receive timely medical attention. Images of smoldering pyres in cremation grounds became emblematic of the crisis. Yet, the BJP government’s narrative continued to downplay the extent of the devastation. The government’s total reported deaths from the pandemic until the end of 2021 stood at 481,000, while the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated the death toll to be between 3.3 million and 6.5 million. The government’s dismissal of the WHO’s figures, claiming the model used for calculations was not applicable to India, further exemplifies its reluctance to confront the reality of the pandemic’s impact.
The study also uncovers deep inequalities among the pandemic’s victims, highlighting that COVID-19 exacerbated existing social disparities. Upper-caste Hindus saw their life expectancy drop by 1.3 years in 2020, while scheduled castes experienced a reduction of 2.7 years. Muslims suffered the most, with their life expectancy decreasing by 5.4 years. These figures are a stark reminder of how marginalized communities were disproportionately affected by the pandemic. Aashish Gupta, one of the study’s authors, emphasized that the pandemic intensified existing marginalization. He pointed out that Muslims faced severe stigmatization and lacked access to healthcare when infected. This marginalization is consistent with the broader trend of discrimination against Muslims in India, which has intensified under the BJP government.
Women, too, were more vulnerable during the pandemic. The study found that while the life expectancy among Indian men fell by 2.1 years, it fell an additional year for women. This contrasts with the global trend, where men’s life expectancy declined more than women’s. Longstanding gender-based discrimination and inequality in resource allocation in India’s patriarchal society likely contributed to this disparity. One of the most significant criticisms of the BJP government’s handling of the pandemic is its lack of transparency. Researchers like Gupta expected that the government would recognize the importance of accurate mortality data. Instead, the government has withheld crucial data, making it difficult to assess the true impact of COVID-19. The study only extrapolates numbers for 2020 due to the absence of quality data for 2021, suggesting that the death toll during the Delta wave could be even higher than reported.
Prabhat Jha, director of the Centre for Global Health Research in Toronto, emphasized that the Delta wave was likely more deadly than 2020. He estimates nearly 3 million excess deaths from the Delta wave alone. The new study’s findings for 2020, which are already higher than expected, further highlight the need for greater data transparency.
The BJP government’s failure to manage the COVID-19 pandemic effectively has had devastating consequences. The underreporting of deaths, the disproportionate impact on marginalized communities, and the lack of transparency in data collection all point to a systemic failure. The government’s reluctance to engage with independent studies and its dismissal of international estimates undermine public trust and hinder efforts to address the pandemic’s long-term effects. India’s experience with COVID-19 serves as a cautionary tale about the importance of transparent governance and the need to prioritize the welfare of all citizens, especially the most vulnerable. The BJP government must acknowledge its shortcomings, release accurate data, and take concrete steps to address the inequalities exacerbated by the pandemic. Only then can the country begin to heal and rebuild from this unprecedented crisis.