“These developments, along with heightened tensions in the region, have raised concerns about accelerated arms racing as well as new risks for escalation in a potential conflict between India and Pakistan, especially since India is also increasing the size and improving the capabilities of its nuclear arsenal,” wrote FAS analyst Eliana Johns.

Not surprisingly given Pakistan’s secretiveness over its nuclear program, the evidence for nuclear-armed JF-17s is somewhat circumstantial. Pakistan’s current nuclear strike aircraft are the 1960s-vintage Mirage V, armed with nuclear bombs, and the Mirage III, which has been tested with the Ra’ad cruise missile, which can be armed with nuclear or conventional warheads. And a JF-17 in flight was recently photographed carrying what appears to be a Ra’ad missile.

Suspicions that the JF-17 would be armed with Ra’ad missiles were mostly speculative, until a photo surfaced recently. “During rehearsals for the 2023 Pakistan Day Parade (which was subsequently canceled), an image surfaced of a JF-17 Thunder Block II carrying what was reported to be a Ra’ad ALCM,” according to FAS. “Notably, this was the first time such a configuration had been observed in public.”

The Federation of American Scientists “was able to purchase the original image,” and compared the Ra’ad mounted on the JF-17 with previous images. One question was which version of the Ra’ad had been fitted to the JF-17. The Ra’ad I (also known as the Hatf-8) is a subsonic air-launched cruise missile with an estimated range of more than 200 miles, and corresponds to other models such as the Europe’s Storm Shadow, according to the CSIS Missile Threat defense site. The newer Ra’ad II reportedly has a range of almost 400 miles. Pakistan is also developing the Taimoor, an anti-ship version of the Ra’ad.

Using tools such as Photoshop Vanishing Point to analyze the images, FAS concluded that JF-17 had been armed with the older Ra’ad I. If true, this would put numerous targets within western and northern India within range of nuclear or conventional cruise missiles.

There is still considerable uncertainty about the exact capabilities of the Ra’ad. “Observing the differences between the Ra’ad-I and Ra’ad-II missiles raises a few questions,” FAS noted. “How was Pakistan able to nearly double the range of the Ra’ad from an estimated 350 kilometers to 550 kilometers and then to 600 kilometers for the newest version without noticeably changing the size of the missile to carry more fuel? The answer could possibly be that the Ra’ad-II engine design is more efficient, the construction components are made from lighter-weight materials or the payload has been reduced.”

Thus for now, Pakistan’s air-launched cruise missile capability will remain a mystery. It is “unclear whether either of the Ra’ad systems has been deployed, but this may only be a question of when rather than if,” FAS said. “Once deployed, it remains to be seen if Pakistan will also continue to retain a nuclear gravity bomb capability for its aircraft or transition to stand-off cruise missiles only.”

And though the JF-17 is a joint Sino-Pakistani aircraft, Johns doubts that China will try to restrain Pakistan from modifying it into a nuclear strike aircraft. “China and Pakistan have enjoyed economic and technical partnership for a long time,” Johns said. “It is suspected that Pakistan received a blueprint for its first nuclear device from China. The JF-17s were not built for a nuclear mission in the Chinese air force. Nonetheless, Pakistan seems to be preparing it for this capability since the Mirage III and V aircraft are aging.”

“This context presents an even greater need for transparency and understanding about the quality and intentions behind states’ nuclear programs to prevent mischaracterization and misunderstanding,” Johns concluded.

Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on Twitter and LinkedIn.