Amos Harel
The highly tense relationships between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the leadership of the Israel Defense Forces and Shin Bet security agency will soon be facing another bump in the road: Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is expected to once again adopt a professional position in line with the military brass, this time focusing on the goals of the war. Gallant and the generals are seeking an early end to operations in Rafah, shifting to an approach involving limited raids in the Gaza Strip and having the army concentrate on preparing for the possibility of an all-out war with Hezbollah in the north.
Netanyahu, according to all the signs, is reluctant to leave Gaza and does not share the urgency and importance that Gallant and IDF Chief of Staff Herzl Halevi attach to seeking a hostage deal with Hamas. Based on the tone expressed by the prime minister’s associates since the weekend, a stormy confrontation is expected.
From Sinwar’s perspective, the only way out is a deal that would force a complete and long-standing cease-fire on Israel, and in exchange for the hostages there would be international guarantees regarding his own well-being and that of Hamas’ leadership.
On the Israeli side, Netanyahu also has concerns about a halt to the fighting – and he isn’t capable of granting Sinwar what he wants, which would constitute an Israeli admission of failure. The dispute between the prime minister and Gallant, Halevi, and Shin Bet director Ronen Bar relates to the quality of the achievements so far and the steps required of the IDF at this time.
At Sunday’s cabinet meeting, Netanyahu took a militant line. In a radio interview on Radio 103FM, his close associate Brig. Gen. (res.) Effi Eitam said the war would last three years: a year in Gaza, which would soon be completed, a year in Lebanon and ultimately a third year “to shape everything related to Iran.”
In remarks quoted over the weekend by the Yedioth Ahronoth daily, Halevi chose to stress the positive – that Israel is close to defeating the last Hamas battalions and within a few weeks can reduce operations in Rafah and, as a matter of fact, in the entire Gaza Strip. In the process, a large force, from both the regular army and the reserves, would be freed up for preparations relating to Lebanon – as well as for essential rest and freshening up after such lengthy combat.
One can quibble over the magnitude of the achievement. The operation in Rafah was late in coming, amid constraints. Netanyahu hesitated over it for months in the face of an American veto and serious disagreements among military and political officials. When the order was issued to the army to proceed with it in early May, it was done hastily and right after the previous round of hostage negotiations collapsed. But the Biden administration continued to create difficulties and forced the IDF to carry out a one-division operation instead of using two divisions like had been planned. The operational plans were hastily changed and the extent of the benefit derived from the operation was reduced.
Hamas chose to evacuate a considerable portion of its armed fighters from the city. On Monday, IDF officials estimated that so far about 550 terrorists have been killed during the recent fighting in Rafah, with two of Hamas’ four battalions in the city now deemed as having low capabilities. Nevertheless, the remaining terrorists have been trailing the Israeli forces using rocket-propelled grenades and explosives charges. After nearly a month and a half, the American ban on IDF troops entering the center of Rafah remains in place. So far, the operation is concentrating on the Philadelphi corridor along the Egyptian border, which was captured in its entirety – and several of Rafah’s neighborhoods.
And yet, it’s hard to explain to the public what soldiers are being killed for in Rafah and what the aim is beyond the same “total victory” that the prime minister still insists on talking about without any connection to reality. Security cooperation is creaking and not only with the Americans. Israel’s takeover of the Rafah border crossing is angering Egypt and at the moment, it’s difficult to find an arrangement that would ensure its transfer to another party without exposing IDF forces to attack in the narrow corridor for many months.
It’s Israel’s move
U.S. President Joe Biden’s special envoy Amos Hochstein came to the region on Monday for another tour between Beirut and Jerusalem. Officials in Washington are worried about the recent increase in hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah and are again seeking to prevent the eruption of all-out war. Just prior to Hochstein’s arrival, IDF Spokesman Daniel Hagari was dispatched on Sunday to convey messages through the foreign media. Hagari argued that “Hezbollah’s increasing aggression is bringing us to the brink of what could be a wider escalation, one that could have devastating consequences for Lebanon and the entire region.”
“Hezbollah is jeopardizing the future of Lebanon – so that it can be a shield for Hamas,” he said. “Israel will take the necessary measures to protect its civilians – until security along our border with Lebanon is restored.”
The Israeli warning also stems from an understanding that Hezbollah is satisfied with the progress of the campaign in northern Israel. Despite its losses (nearly 340 dead among the ranks of Hezbollah alone) and despite the targeted killings of several of its senior members, Hezbollah isn’t feeling that it’s at a disadvantage. It is dictating how the fighting is being conducted in the north – and it’s Israel that is responding. From an American standpoint, Israel – more than Hezbollah – is close to deciding to substantially escalate its firepower. Hochstein’s visit is designed to prevent a war, but a considerable amount of the effort will be directed toward us Israelis.
In the meantime, Netanyahu has declared that the war cabinet is being disbanded, which was foreseeable. Following the resignation of Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot of National Unity Party, the prime minister was concerned about demands by far-right ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir to join the limited war cabinet instead. Netanyahu announced that the main consultations would from now on be conducted through another limited consultation forum.
In other words, it would include himself, Gallant, Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, Knesset member Arye Dery and senior members of the defense establishment. But it’s not entirely clear where fundamental decisions will be made, such as the disagreement over the future of the campaign. Will it be the broader security cabinet, where Netanyahu apparently has an assured majority?
This is coming against the backdrop of renewed tensions between the prime minister and senior members of the defense establishment. The poison machine on social media has again been working overtime on his behalf, and Netanyahu also fired volleys of his own in statements at the cabinet meeting. (“We’re a country with an army and not an army with a country.”) He then ignited a fabricated confrontation over his public evasion from the IDF’s announcement about the opening of a humanitarian aid route from Kerem Shalom to Rafah, where the army is to refrain from activity during daytime hours.
In practice, the army was acting in accordance with a directive from Netanyahu, who acceded to American pressure (although the army didn’t update the prime minister on the details). But it was convenient for Netanyahu to escalate the confrontation and in the process divert attention from the heavy losses over the weekend in Rafah and from the public criticism of efforts to ensure passage of laws exempting the ultra-Orthodox from the draft.
A relationship of arms
Israel doesn’t release detailed information by country as to where its exports are going, but it does do so based on the region of the world. Because the Asia-Pacific region leads the customer list, accounting for 48 percent of the total, India can be assumed to be Israel’s No. 1 export customer. Europe was second, accounting for 35 percent, a figure that is continuing to grow against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and concerns about Russia. North America was third at 9 percent, while Africa represented a negligible 1 percent.
Senior sources in the defense establishment claim there is now stricter enforcement of restrictions on arms sales to countries with ongoing violations of civil rights, where there is political instability or where there is an ongoing military conflict. Antimissile systems continue to lead the product list (at 36 percent). Their phenomenal success on the night in April when Iran launched its rocket barrage only added to the interest.
On the other hand, senior officials are being repeatedly asked about the disparity between the failings on October 7 in Israeli communities near the Gaza border and the technological and intelligence capabilities about which Israel boasts. And there’s also a more critical problem stemming from the war.
The more that the United States is angered over Netanyahu’s policies, it resorts to delaying and slowing its export of weapons as a way of pressuring Israel. More than a month ago, President Biden delayed a shipment of 3,500 precision bombs to the air force. The disagreement has not yet been resolved. Defense Minister Gallant and his ministry’s director general, Maj. Gen. Eyal Zamir, will again be going to the United States next week. It can be assumed that the question of munitions will top the agenda. Anyone imagining the air force hitting Gaza and Beirut at the same time would do well to have a look at the results of the visit.
source : haaretz