By Saad Hasan : The simultaneous missile and drone strikes in Iraq, Pakistan and Syria have raised questions over Iran’s potential motives in trying to expand military confrontation at a time when its proxies are already at war with the United States and Israel.
Over the past few days, Iran struck an alleged militant base in Pakistan’s southern Balochistan province and blew up a house with drone-mounted missiles in Iraq’s Erbil region that Tehran alleged was used by Israeli intelligence. A similar attack was carried out against the Daesh in Syria, where Iran-backed militants have been active for years.
There were casualties in Iraq and Pakistan, with authorities in both countries saying that civilians – including children – were killed in the Iranian attacks.
Early on Thursday, Pakistan retaliated with precision strikes in Iran’s Balochestan-Sistan province at what Islamabad says was a hideout of a Baloch separatist group.
“It seems to be mostly driven by domestic politics in Iran. They needed to respond to that suicide bombing at the Soleimani tomb that killed so many people,” Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East analyst at the RANE Network risk intelligence consultancy, tells TRT World.
“So they needed to have a show of force that they were in some capacity going after the perpetrators.”
Bohl was referring to the January 3 bombing near the mausoleum of slain General Qasem Soleimani in the Iranian city of Kerman, in which more than a hundred people were killed.
The attack was claimed by Daesh, and analysts believe it was likely carried out by the Afghanistan-based branch of the terrorist group. The bombings exposed loopholes in Iran’s security apparatus, putting pressure on President Ebrahim Raisi’s government to act.
Bohl says the Iranian response, especially the attack on the alleged camp of the Jaish al Adl terrorist group in Pakistan, was a “scapegoating” attempt as Tehran should have instead hit Daesh targets inside Afghanistan.
“They didn’t want to escalate the situation with the Taliban at this point. They already have strained relations and border clashes with them.
“It seems like they were trying to find somebody within the region that they could, through their state media, paint just as close enough to Daesh to suit their domestic purposes.”
Extension of proxy war
Yemen’s Houthis, which have close ties with Iran, have been targetted by the US and its allies for disrupting marine trade in the Red Sea. The Houthis say their missile attacks and hijacking attempts of the cargo ships are in response to Israel’s deadly war on Gaza.
There are concerns that the US-Houthi confrontation can lead to another war in the volatile region.
“We are seeing Iran becoming embroiled in growing instability in the Middle East because of its sponsorship of violent proxies,” says Michael Kugelman, South Asia Institute Director at The Wilson Center.
“It fears that its security interest will be increasingly imperilled. So I think it’s trying to go on the offensive and hit out against various anti-Iran targets around the broader region. And that includes Pakistan in this case.”
The deadly Pakistani response, which was followed by Islamabad’s decision to recall its ambassador to Tehran, can easily escalate the crisis between the neighbours, which share a porous border.
Both sides have pointed fingers at each other for allegedly harbouring anti-state groups. Pakistan accuses Iran of hosting separatists who are behind a decades-long insurgency in its Balochistan province. Iran says Pakistan hosts militant groups.
“What Iran is doing is risky. You don’t want to push your luck too much with a nuclear power,” says Kugelman.
At the same time, Pakistan is struggling to deal with a faltering economy, renewed attacks from the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan group and political infighting ahead of the February 8 national elections.
“It really can’t afford to become embroiled in a new conflict with its neighbour,” says Kugelman.
Pakistan is also home to millions of Shia Muslims – roughly 15 percent to 20 percent of its population.
A warning shot
The Iranian missile strike in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq has made analysts question Tehran’s true intentions. Iran says it targetted an Israeli spy hub, which was operating near the US consulate in Erbil.
Iran-backed militias have a strong foothold in Iraq, where they have been operating for decades and regularly carry out attacks against US troops.
“They could have responded by sending in their militias. But the choice of using long-range missiles was also the dual purpose of sending a message to the Americans and the Israelis,” says Bohl of RANE Network.
“They are saying that if there are escalations elsewhere, their missile capabilities remain in place and as potent as they were a few years back.”