Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: Bangladesh prepares for elections on Sunday with a nearly certain outcome, Pakistani election candidates are denied nominations ahead of the February vote, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gives a speech in Uttar Pradesh ahead of a controversial temple consecration.

Bangladesh Heads to the Polls

Five countries in South Asia will hold elections this year, and the first—in Bangladesh on Sunday—features the least uncertainty. With the main opposition party boycotting the polls, Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the ruling Awami League party are all but guaranteed a fourth consecutive term.

This outcome will be roundly condemned by Hasina’s critics at home. It will also raise concerns among Western governments that already worry the Awami League is dismantling democracy and leading Bangladesh to become a virtual one-party state. But throughout South Asia, where most governments view Hasina as someone they can work with, the reaction will be more sanguine.

For years, the Awami League has cracked down on the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and against dissent more broadly. Since opposition protests turned violent in October, these crackdowns have intensified, with many BNP leaders now jailed. The BNP vowed to boycott the elections unless Hasina stepped down in favor of a caretaker government to oversee the vote.

The United States and the European Union have both pressured Bangladesh to hold free and fair elections. Washington has deployed both carrots and sticks, calling on the main parties to hold a dialogue while also imposing visa restrictions on those it accused of hindering credible elections. Even Japan, a top partner of Bangladesh that generally stays quiet about political matters, has publicly raised concerns.

But the international pressure hasn’t worked. With the opposition sitting out the vote and disturbing reports that the Awami League is trying to ensure high turnout by using threats to withdraw government welfare benefits from those who don’t vote, the elections already appear to be a farce.

Many Western countries value their trade ties with Bangladesh, given its powerful garment industry, and perceive it as a strategically significant state situated in the heart of the Indo-Pacific. But they cannot rule out punitive post-election steps, including trade sanctions. Either way, bad blood between Dhaka and the West—and especially Washington—will certainly linger post-election.

By contrast, Hasina’s return will be viewed more positively in South Asia. She enjoys strong support from India, which, like the Awami League, characterizes the opposition as a potentially destabilizing threat that could lead to the return of Islamism in Bangladesh. (However, Hasina’s close ties with India make Pakistan one of the few South Asian states that would likely be happy to see her go.)

Hasina’s push for connectivity resonates with Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, all of whom are pursuing new initiatives with Bangladesh. The strong economic growth under Hasina offers new opportunities for trade within a region where it lags. Finally, her policy of balancing relations with both Beijing and New Delhi converges with that of the region’s other nonaligned states.

However, this may be too rosy a view. Hasina’s close ties to India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, combined with a deeply aggrieved BNP, could sharpen anti-India sentiment among the public. Other South Asian countries may also grow wary of Hasina’s attachment to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

If she struggles to address looming economic challenges—such as rising inflation and long-term problems from an overreliance on garment exports—prospects for trade and connectivity cooperation could diminish. Still, reactions to Hasina’s inevitable fourth term will be far more receptive across South Asia than further afield—or close at home.

What We’re Following

Pakistani candidates denied nominations. Pakistan’s elections are scheduled for Feb. 8, with a few similar themes to those in Bangladesh, especially top political challengers confronting formidable electoral roadblocks. The latest obstacle for the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, arguably the country’s most popular, is getting its candidates’ election nomination papers accepted.

More than 3,000 nomination documents were recently rejected by the election commission, and most of the people filing them planned to run on the PTI ticket. Many PTI leaders still technically able to run for office said their nominations were denied, and PTI leader Imran Khan, who has been jailed since August, was rejected as well. On Monday, appellate tribunals began considering appeals by dozens of denied candidates.

Meanwhile, Nawaz Sharif, the head of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party and a strong candidate to lead the next government, had his nomination papers accepted, only to have a lawyer file an appeal challenging their acceptance. This was expected: After Sharif’s conviction on corruption charges in 2018, the Supreme Court disqualified him from public office for life.

Last year, the government—led by Sharif’s younger brother—passed legislation stipulating that disqualifications can only last for five years, shortly before handing over power to a caretaker government. The courts will need to settle the matter, with significant implications for the election outcome; this week, Pakistan’s apex court indicated it will weigh in soon.

Modi prepares for temple inauguration. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the city of Ayodhya on Saturday, where he inaugurated new infrastructure projects, including an airport and a railway station. He also spoke of the upcoming consecration of the Ram Mandir temple, scheduled for Jan. 22, advising people to stay away from the city that day due to huge crowds and calling on Indians to mark the occasion in other ways.

The temple, currently under construction, is a deeply controversial project. It is being built on land where a mosque stood for nearly 500 years until Hindu extremists destroyed it in 1992. Many Hindus claim the mosque was erected on the grounds of a Hindu temple destroyed during the Mughal Empire, and which marked the birthplace of the Hindu god Rama. The consecration of the Ram Mandir temple intends to fulfill a long-standing pledge of Modi’s.

The Saturday visit was classic Modi: He combined themes around welfare and development with an unyielding focus on Hindu nationalism. His appearance in Ayodhya—located in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state—showcased the tactics he will bank on to catapult him to a third straight term as prime minister when India holds national elections in April and May.

Qatar commutes death sentences of Indian ex-officers. Last week, India announced that Qatar’s Court of Appeal commuted the death sentences of eight former Indian naval officers jailed since 2022. The officers were in the country to train Qatari naval staff, according to the head of an Indian veterans group. They were reportedly charged with spying for Israel—which would have become more sensitive after the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war last October.

Neither the Indian nor the Qatari government has said much publicly about the case. India has expressed support for Israel since the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks; Qatar hosts many top Hamas leaders. The ongoing tensions make it more surprising that the Indians’ sentences were reduced, a move that may have been triggered in part by a personal appeal from Modi.

Last month, he met with the emir of Qatar on the sidelines of the U.N. climate conference in Dubai, which Modi said was a “good conversation” on “the well-being of the Indian community in Qatar.”

The reduced sentences mean the former officers could be sent back to India to serve out their time, thanks to a prisoner transfer treaty the two countries signed in 2014. However, last week an External Affairs Ministry spokesperson said he wasn’t sure if the prisoner treaty is still in effect, adding that the government is in touch with lawyers to discuss next steps.

Under the Radar

As Chinese naval power projection has increased in the Indian Ocean region in recent years, fears have grown in India and the United States about the presence of Chinese vessels off the littoral states of South Asia. This concern extends to ostensibly non-military maritime activities because of fears that they could mask intelligence functions. In 2019, the Indian Navy expelled a Chinese research vessel operating near the Andaman Sea without permission.

In recent months, India has turned its attention to Chinese naval activity off Sri Lanka. This includes another Chinese research vessel that docked in Sri Lanka in October and November while conducting a joint maritime survey with Sri Lankan counterparts. The Hindustan Times reports that last week, Sri Lanka informed India it won’t allow Chinese research vessels to dock in its ports or to operate in its exclusive economic zones for an entire year.

The move is a strategic win for India; it means that a Chinese ship expected to conduct deep-water exploration in the Indian Ocean between this month and May won’t be able to operate in Sri Lankan waters.

Yet Modi reportedly expressed concerns about Chinese naval activities after meeting Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe last July, raising the question of why Sri Lanka didn’t act sooner. Chinese research vessels still plan to ply the waters of other South Asian states—including the Maldives, which last year elected a new president who takes more pro-China positions than his predecessor.

FP’s Most Read This Week

• 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2024 by Comfort Ero and Richard Atwood
• The Field of Geopolitics Offers Both Promise and Peril by Hal Brands
• Iran Threatens to Take Red Sea Disruption to New Waters by Elisabeth Braw

Regional Voices

Researcher Jagadish Prasad Bist, writing in the Kathmandu Post, slams the public policies of Nepali Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal. He argues that Dahal’s recent pledges to avoid past mistakes ring hollow: “Be it in the past or the present, he has failed to deliver on economic agendas and maintain transparency in governance.”

A Daily Mirror editorial cites new Sri Lankan survey data revealing that 60 percent of households have reported reductions in monthly average income. Contrary to the government’s views that Sri Lanka has turned the corner on a terrible economic crisis, it argues, the data reveals “a bleak picture of the country at present and in the future.”

In the Express Tribune, analyst Durdana Najam writes about the oppression faced by communities in the Pakistani region of Balochistan. She argues that the Baloch ruling class deserves blame for the province’s suffering: “They bend every law and rule to their advantage, which has impeded Balochistan’s progress despite the announcement of lavish reform packages.”