by Qirat Mirza 10 September 2023
Asia has always been a powerful player in the world since time immemorial because of its economic strength and geographical location. This importance remained through all periods, before, during, and after the Cold War. However, this semi-global prominence also makes Asia one of the most vulnerable regions to confrontations over nuclear capabilities among countries with such weapons. Whether it is territorial disputes or attempts at dominating warm-water areas, we can see these confrontations like that between India and China in the Indian Ocean. The major part of the Indian Ocean falls within India’s domain while China dominates another important area of Asian waters South China Sea.
The Indian Ocean region holds tremendous geopolitical, geo-economic, and geostrategic importance as a global trade hub. It serves as a crucial link connecting the Middle East with the East Asian region and Atlantic Ocean with Pacific Ocean, also accounts for one-fifth of the water on Earth’s surface. Furthermore, the region is rich in hydrocarbon resources such as oil and natural gas, as well as good fishing grounds along the coastlines and rare earth elements such as polymetallic nodules. Indian Ocean is having three crucial points namely, Strait of Malacca, Strait of Hormuz and Strait of Bab el Mandeb. If these points are choked by any country, it will disrupt the global trade. After having confrontation with China in Ladakh, India decided to counter China in Indian Ocean. Alfred Thayer Mahan, USA naval officer and historian said;
“Sea power is inseparable from national greatness, whoever conquers the Indian Ocean will dominate the whole of Asia “
China is the world’s largest manufacturing economy and exporter of many goods. Using its economic power, it controls lands and territories. Its maritime routes extend from the South China Sea through the Strait of Malacca in the Indian Ocean, then through the Arabian Sea into the Gulf and European countries. Another route enters into Pacific Ocean but it’s not India’s concern. Approximately, 80% of Chinas oil transits through Indian Ocean and Malacca strait and 95% of china’s trade with Middle East, Africa and Europe passes through Indian Ocean.
India relies a lot on the Indian Ocean for various things. Fishing and selling seafood to other countries are important, and these exports have grown a lot over the years. India’s maritime exports grew 55 times in volume between 1962 and 2012. Along with this, 95 percent of India’s trade by volume and 68 percent of trade by value come via the Indian Ocean. Additionally, 3.28 million barrels per day—or nearly 80 percent of India’s crude oil is brought to the country through ships in the Indian Ocean – it’s a huge part of how India gets its oil.
To secure its interests in the broader maritime neighborhood, India is investing in his nuclear capabilities. Recently, India constructed its aircraft carrier, a powerful vessel that only developed countries can possess. It is known for its advanced fighter jets, submarines that function as its arm, technological systems, and radar systems. It is called the ‘Indigenous INS Vikrant’ because it is claimed to have been made in the home country without relying on external technology. Additionally, India is also working on merging the Indian Ocean with the Pacific Ocean in strategic terms. Therefore, he is forming alliance with other countries like USA, France, Japan and UK to counter Chinas presence in naval warfare. It is encapsulated from the from the formation of groups namely “QUAD” and “AUKUS “. China has also accused them of having anti-China motives. The USA is already having confrontation with China on South China Sea therefore he is reinforcing India in countering China in Indian Ocean. Furthermore, India has also invested in Chabahar port of Iran to have access not only to Afghanistan but also to establish direct connections with Russia, Europe and Central Asian counties because chabahar is the only port having direct access to Indian Ocean. He believes it would help him to counter China presence in Arabian Sea.
However, it’s unfeasible for India to counter country like China in this scenario. This is because China’s advanced space program is ahead of India’s space program. Alarming navy Intel slide also warned China of 200 times greater shipbuilding capacity. Indian strategists also acknowledge the shortcomings of its newly built INS Vikrant. They also believe it has a weak radar system and lacks nuclear submarines to accompany it. It also lacks a notable aircraft carrier characteristic, which is the electromagnetic system that provides force to aircraft, allowing them to take off without using their own energy. Instead of having American Tejas and naval version F-18 jets, it is equipped with MiG-21 aircraft, one of the worst quality aircrafts. It was also shot down by Pakistan on February 27, 2019. All these characteristics make this ship the most vulnerable and easily detectable target. Secondly , It is not comparable to the Chinese made aircraft carrier “ Fujian “ that is 80,000 tons massive and has a capacity of 40 plus aircrafts whereas INS Vikrant has a mass of 45,000 tons .
China is also proceeding to build a land route as an alternative to sea routes due to unforeseen challenges in the Indian Ocean. China’s land routes under Belt and Road Initiative starts from Xijiang province of China, enters into Central Asian Countries, passes through Iran and Tajikistan and provides access to Middle East and European countries. Another route, named the ‘China-Pakistan Economic Corridor,’ passes through Azad Kashmir in Pakistan to the Gwadar port. China has also signed deals with Iran regarding the utilization of the Chabahar port.
In contrast, India should take a cue from Pakistan’s proficient navy. Despite facing political and economic challenges, Pakistan has managed to build a strong naval arsenal and maintain a highly skilled navy, surpassing India in some aspects. On October 2021, the incident was reported when the Pakistan Navy detected and blocked an Indian submarine from entering Pakistani waters and sent it back. In the last two decades, China and Pakistan have become closer military partners, especially in terms of their navies. Pakistan has been buying advanced naval ships and submarines from China, including a big $5 billion deal in 2016 to get Yuan class Type 039/041 diesel submarines by 2028.
India is also relying on those countries for assistance that have no business in Indian Ocean. However, Australia is having some stakes in Indian Ocean because its western part is in it yet China Sea route and south china dispute are not close to Australian maritime border Secondly, It is also obsolete for him to completely rely on other countries when it is having policy of non alignment towards other countries. Therefore, such Indian policies and naval capability clearly encapsulates that India can’t outmaneuver China in Indian ocean.