by Serajul Islam 5 September 2023
BANGLADESH’S next general election is hanging over the nation like the proverbial sword of Damocles. The nation is most likely to slide into a nightmare unless the election is held peacefully. The Awami League regime wants it according to the 15th amendment that it adopted in June 2011 with its absolute majority and many legal, judicial and constitutional questions concerning it. It held two elections under it. Both were controversial.
The opposition parties led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party will not participate in an election under the 15th amendment to the constitution of Bangladesh because they believethat the amendment is the Awami League’s constitutional insurance for the one-party BKSAL vision and the BNP’s death trap. It, therefore, wants the prime minister to hand power to the caretaker government to hold the next general election. The BNP would not mind if the caretaker government is called by any other name as long as the election-time government is not the Awami League government.
The Awami League’s stand would appear to be the right way to hold the election for anyone unaware of Bangladesh’s history and politics. The Awami League would even receive a pat on the back for its faith in the constitution, something commendable in any developing country. Nevertheless, the story is quite different to those aware of Bangladesh’s history and politics.
In 1975, the first AL regime changed the 1972 constitution from a parliamentary democracy into a one-party or BKSAL dictatorship by adopting the fourth amendment with its absolute majority in the parliament in a matter of minutes. The fourth amendment met its tragic end following the events of August 15, 1975 and was annulled by the fifth amendment, which restored the multi-party system in the constitution.
The Awami League again flagged that it believed the constitution could be amended or changed at any time or in any manner to serve its political interests during the BNP’s 1991–96 term. The Awami League with the Jatiya Party and Jamaat as allies brought the country to a standstill with 173 days of general strike and violence to amend the constitution to adopt, believe it or not, the caretaker government system as the election-time government in place of the constitutionally mandated government of party in power. Sheikh Hasina had such profound faith in the caretaker government system in that era that she wanted it to be in the constitution ‘forever’.
The BNP acceded to the Awami League’s demand for the caretaker government after winning the February 1996 election by a landslide that the Awami League-Jamaat-Jatiya Party abstained on the caretaker government issue. The BNP adopted the 13 or the caretaker government amendment, in March 1996 to save the country and democracy. It held the first election under the caretaker government system in June 1996 and lost it to the Awami League marginally. The BNP paved the way for the Awami League to come to power for the first time after 26 years although it could have remained in power for a full term, constitutionally.
The Awami League, after winning the December 2008 election by a two-thirds majority, saw the opportunity for which it had been waiting since 1975, the opportunity to amend the constitution to re-install its BKSAL vision in it. The Awami League first declared the 13th or the caretaker government amendment, the fruit of its 1991–96 movement, unconstitutional through the High Court that in a ruling in 2004 declared it constitutional and then adopted the 15th amendment that is the Achilles’ heel proof constitutional guarantee of its BKSAL vision.
The Awami League regime made mincemeat of the independence of the judiciary to declare the 13th amendment unconstitutional and illegal through Chief Justice Khairul Huq in May 2011. The prime minister then made mincemeat of the independence of the legislature when, as the head of the executive branch, she acted as both the judge and the jury to enact and adopt the 15th amendment in June 2011. The AL regime, thus, trashed the principle of separation of powers enshrined in the constitution.
A great deal has already been said and written that exposed the 15th amendment as a story of intrigue and conspiracy. Therefore, the Awami League’s dismissal of BNP’s demand for election under the caretaker government system which is also supported by most of the people on constitutional grounds is palpably untenable, given its history of treating the constitution. Clearly as daylight, the Awami League wants the 15th amendment not because of its faith in the constitution but because it will not lose the election under it. The reasons are self-explanatory.
The 15th amendment will allow the AL regime to hold the election under Sheikh Hasina as the prime minister. The parliament will remain unannulled under it, something unheard of in a parliamentary election anywhere. This would allow the Awami League and its allies who hold all 300 seats in the present parliament to nominate a member of parliament in each of these seats in the next election if they want. They cannot, therefore, dream of a more uneven field against their opponents in a general election other than one under the 15th amendment.
There is even worse news for the BNP-led opposition in an election under the 15th amendment. It is now palpably evident that the Election Commission will support the Awami League and its allies’ candidates to tilt in an election under it. So will the law enforcement agencies and the civil bureaucracy. The members of these two critical institutions for holding a general election are now more loyal and dedicated to the Awami League than AL members and activists.
There are, thus, zero incentives for the BNP and allies to contest in an election under the 15th amendment unless it wanted to commit hara-kiri. The Awami League’s determination to reject the BNP’s demand for the caretaker government and hold the next general election under the 15th amendment, instead, is also based upon the fear that it would not only lose an election under the caretaker government or its equivalent by a landslide, but the lives of its leaders and supporters would also be at risk. Many AL leaders fear that the party would be wiped out the very night it loses the election.
The Awami League has been in power for 14 years. Ten of these years were practically through non-elections. The voters of the country would be desperate to vote in the next general election having not voted in the last two elections. More importantly, the next general election will also be one for which the BNP which has suffered persecution including enforced disappearances, incarcerations and framed and fictitious court cases in hundreds of thousands and extrajudicial killings, has finally put its act together. Its supporters and allies backed by the people have come out to the streets in a movement that shows the potential to become the most powerful political movement since the war of liberation.
The millions of supporters of the BNP and its allies backed by people would now fight not just for their democratic, human and electoral rights but also for their survival aware that Bangladesh’s external stakeholders are supporting their causes. The AL regime is alone but determined to hold another election like the two previous ones. Bangladesh will, thus, face an existential crisis very soon unless it succeeds in holding a free, fair and peaceful general election in which all eligible voters can vote.
The Awami League introduced the caretaker government system in Bangladesh’s politics during the BNP’s 1991–96 term as the panacea for a free and fair election. The caretaker government system is also one of the very rare instances in the politics of Bangladesh upon which the Awami League, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, the Jatiya Party and Jamaat had reached a political consensus. The caretaker government system or its equivalent mechanism only can now stop the proverbial sword of Damocles from falling on Bangladesh. The ball is now in the Awami League’s court to put the nation’’s interest before its own.
The article appeared in the New Age, Bangladesh.