by Taj Hashmi 20 July 2023
In 2014, the Obama Administration, more by default than design, turned a blind eye to India’s growing influence in Bangladesh, which was more domineering and invasive than friendly.
However, the US hoped India’s presence would counteract China’s expanding military and economic power in the Indo-Pacific region. Unfortunately, India could not prevent China from extending its influence in Bangladesh through economic and military means. In 2018, China played a decisive role in bringing the Hasina Regime to power through grossly rigged elections, which was devastating for Washington. As a result, the US is worried about China’s unchecked influence in Bangladesh and may take action to address the situation.
While Hasina continued to appease India with concessions and quasi-capitulation rights, she also started to form a closer relationship with China, much to India’s discomfiture. Hasina acknowledged publicly that India would always remember what Bangladesh had given them. Her Foreign Minister, Abdul Momin, also likened the relationship between Bangladesh and India to that of a husband and wife. Meanwhile, the ongoing conflict between China and America has entered a new phase, with tensions rising in Taiwan, the South China Sea, and Ukraine. America is now seeking a democratic and pro-American regime in Bangladesh, as India and Awami League are no longer seen as safe bets.
Since Joe Biden’s election, America has ended its isolation from world affairs, prompted by the Trump Administration. Since early 2021, America has become a major crusader in the global arena, seeking to “right the wrong” following the Wilsonian motto formulated in the early 20th century. The Biden Administration has been taking action to address conflicts in various countries, one of which is Bangladesh. In December 2021, Biden’s Bangladesh Policy implemented the Magnitsky Act, which led to visa sanctions being imposed on seven senior law enforcement officials who had violated the human rights of citizens in Bangladesh. This extraordinary move highlights the administration’s dedication to safeguarding human rights.
After imposing visa sanctions, senior officials from the US State Department visited Bangladesh to express their concerns about the continuous human rights abuses committed by the Hasina administration’s law enforcement, judiciary, and ruling party members. These abuses include extrajudicial killings, rape, abduction, and enforced disappearances of opposition members. The Biden Administration has been clear in demanding that the country hold free, fair, and inclusive parliamentary elections due by early January 2024. The US has been advocating for free and fair elections in Bangladesh and has imposed new sanctions. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced on May 24th that the US would restrict visas for Bangladeshis who undermine the democratic election process at home. This policy could affect current or former officials, politicians, law enforcement, judiciary, and security service members who are believed to be responsible for or complicit in undermining democracy in Bangladesh.
In Bangladesh, the Hasina Regime has responded defensively and offensively, which can be both amusing and ridiculous. While claiming to be a democratically elected and development-oriented government, the Regime denies any wrongdoing. At the same time, it criticizes the Biden Administration as intrusive and portrays the US as a violator of human rights at home and abroad. Hasina even portrays herself as a victim of America’s “regime change doctrine”.
Despite three consecutive and rigged elections in 2008, 2014, and 2018 that ensured Hasina’s continued power, her regime is highly unpopular in Bangladesh due to unbridled corruption and human rights violations. Additionally, India’s enthusiastic support of the regime has further alienated most Bangladeshis from India, leading to a synonymy between India and the Hasina regime. And ever since China’s covert support for re-installing Hasina to power in 2018, Bangladeshis have also had strong reservations about the Beijing Regime. Despite mutual animosity between Beijing and Delhi, both countries prefer Hasina to remain in power. China hopes to gain investment opportunities in Bangladesh and has been a not-so-generous money-lender. At the same time, India has granted many Indian-run projects in the country and allowed for their unconditional use of Chattogram and Mongla sea ports and land and river transits between Paschim Banga and the landlocked Northeast states of India, with no apparent benefits for Bangladesh.
Even though there are ideological differences between them, most Bangladeshis (mostly Muslim) see no distinction between the Congress Party and the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, which promotes Hindu nationalism and Islamophobia. They believe both parties are equally harmful to Bangladesh whenever they come into power. Many Bangladeshis question the integrity and patriotism of the ruling Awami League due to its unwavering support for both major political parties in India. This has led to the frequent use of the term “pro-Indian” to describe the Awami League throughout the country.
For most Bangladeshis, India’s close relationship with the Awami League is a disadvantage for the country and the political party. Regrettably, none of the ruling parties in India, most political analysts, journalists, or historians, have been able to present a positive and kind image of India to the vast majority in Bangladesh. Indians’ soft corner for the corrupt and ruthless dictatorial Hasina Regime has further aggravated the situation. This has a negative bearing on the Indo-Bangladesh relationship. The collective memory of Bangladeshi politics dates back to the nation-state’s tumultuous birth after a civil-cum-liberation war in 1971. Despite a small group who remembers India’s aid in their country’s liberation, most Bangladeshis hold a negative view towards India due to their perceived role in exploiting and exerting power over Bangladesh since 1971. As a result, they tend to prefer other nations like China, America/the West, and even Pakistan, who opposed Bangladesh’s creation in 1971. This is relevant to understanding how most people in the country behave and think towards India and superpowers such as China and America.
Interestingly, in response, China has expressed its unwavering support for the Hasina Regime. China, the surreptitious benefactor of the Hasina Regime, was mainly responsible for the unprecedented poll rigging in favour of Hasina in 2018. It is fortunate for them that the bulk of Bangladeshis remains unaware of China’s manipulations in their country, leading them to hold positive opinions about the Asian behemoth.
Recently, certain Indian analysts who support Hasina’s pro-India stance, even if it goes against her own country’s interests, have been speaking out in media and social media against America’s visa sanctions on some Bangladeshi law-enforcing officials and the possibility of sanctions against those who obstruct free and fair elections. These analysts sometimes spread lies, fabrications, and half-truths about America, China, and Hasina’s opponents in Bangladesh and elsewhere. While some are realistic and acknowledge that Modi is unlikely to intervene to help Hasina due to her pro-China stance, others create false stories supporting the Hasina government. On June 15th, an Indian journalist shared a story in the Economic Times (Indian daily) about a meeting between US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and his Indian counterpart Ajit Doval in Delhi. The story highlights what Doval and Sullivan did not discuss at all.
According to the story, during Prime Minister Modi’s forthcoming meeting with President Biden in Washington the following week, Modi would request that Biden refrains from any actions that would remove Hasina from power as it would negatively impact India’s best interests. There is a deeper issue at play here. In India, individuals like politicians, diplomats, journalists, and analysts often depict Bangladeshi Muslims and their leaders, except for Hasina and her colleagues in the Awami League party, as potential Islamist extremists and anti-Indian. This narrative not only fosters bias against Bangladesh in India but also motivates pro-Indian/pro-Awami League Bangladeshis to endorse Hasina. Bengali daily, Prothom Alo, in Bangladesh supports the Awami League (which some may view as supportive of India) and referenced the story from the Economic Times. While it may seem harmless, it benefits those who want to undermine the American sanctions against individuals who could cause problems in the upcoming elections. This encourages support for the dictatorial regime of Hasina, which is viewed as pro-Indian.
Joe Biden’s election has significantly shifted away from Trump’s non-intervention policies and pro-Russian leanings. This shift is especially noticeable following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Biden Administration is aware of China’s clear support for Putin and Russia, as well as India’s ambiguous behaviour, which includes purchasing Russian oil and abstaining from voting against Russia in the General Assembly. China’s recent aggressive behaviour, in collaboration with rogue states like North Korea and Myanmar, has raised concerns for the Biden Administration and its Western and Eastern allies. Bangladesh could be used as a deterrent to Myanmar’s rise as a threat in the Bay of Bengal, which Washington is aware of. However, any assumption that the US wishes to keep Prime Minister Hasina in power because of Modi’s preference is baseless. Modi has no reason to support Hasina, who also maintains close ties with Xi Jinping. Hasina’s decisions to deny China the Teesta Water Project and build a deepsea port at Sonadia go against China’s interests in Bangladesh, making it unlikely for China to support her. Therefore, American State Department officials visiting India or China have nothing to do with Bangladesh or the Hasina Regime.
Lastly, Biden has no compelling reason to consider Modi a trustworthy ally. In 2014, Obama formed a friendship with him despite his reputation as the “Butcher of Gujarat.” The hope was that he would uphold India’s democratic and secular values, but unfortunately, he did not. In addition to that, he was unsuccessful in limiting Chinese influence in Bangladesh and Myanmar. So much so that China was instrumental in the 2017 Rohingya Massacre and expulsion of a million Rohingyas from Arakan, in the massive rigging of elections in favour of Hasina in 2018, and the overthrow of the democratically elected Aung San Suu Kyi’s government in Myanmar through a military coup in early 2021.
In summary, Hasina’s fifteen-year rule has caused widespread unrest throughout Bangladesh. It has attracted the attention of global powers such as the US, its Western allies, Japan, China, and Russia. Each of these nations has its interests and objectives, both on a global and regional level, particularly in the Bay of Bengal. China’s increasingly aggressive behaviour in the Indo-Pacific region, including the Strait of Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the Bay of Bengal, is a significant factor that has drawn the attention of superpowers like America and Russia to Bangladesh. Whenever Bangladesh is mentioned, India is also brought up, almost like a pink elephant in the room. It is wishful thinking that India, China, or America will do their best to keep Hasina in power through another round of sham elections or by some other means. The Biden Administration will not change its course by abandoning its efforts to restore democracy and human rights in the country. It will continue to support its allies, including the UK, EU countries, Japan, Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and Western media, who have been exposing the Hasina Regime’s wrongdoings for some time. It is unclear why China and India should intervene to support the regime. They know that regardless of who comes to power in the country, they will need to engage in regular business with neighbouring and other countries. To summarize, America and its allies believe that removing the Hasina Regime is necessary to uphold democracy and human rights. They understand that a corrupt authoritarian government can result in terrorism and chaos, both domestically and internationally.
Taj Hashmi, Ph.D., FRAS is a historian-cum-cultural anthropologist, and is a retired professor of Security Studies at the APCSS, US. Author of five books, hundreds of journal articles, and newspaper op-eds, he is an analyst of current affairs. As a human rights activist, he regularly appears on talk shows about Bangladesh, South Asia, and World affairs on various TV and YouTube channels. His latest book, Fifty Years of Bangladesh, 1971-2021: Crises of Culture, Development, Governance, and Identity, was published by Palgrave-Macmillan in May 2022. He lives in Toronto, Canada. Telephone: 1 647 447 2609 — Email: tajhashmi@gmail.com