by Shehar Bano 14 June 2023
The advent of artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly transforming various disciplines, especially in the military sector. While the focus of the discussion has traditionally been on nuclear and conventional weapons, the inclusion of AI technology in weaponry has opened a whole new realm of debate regarding the tactical use of such weapons on the battlefield. The combination of autonomous decision-making and artificially induced intelligence in weaponry is perfect for the military, providing greater precision, lethality, and reduced casualties.
India has taken steps in this direction and is already working on AI-based weapon systems. According to the Oxford Government AI Readiness Index 2022, India ranks 32nd globally, while Pakistan ranks at a distant 92nd[i]. India’s AI multi-stakeholder task force primarily focuses on developing AI-powered weapons and surveillance systems for futuristic warfare. India has already successfully developed its first AI-based firing system, ARBEL, in collaboration with Israel[ii]. This indicates India’s strong push towards incorporating AI technology in its military arsenal and its readiness to deploy it in tactical situations.
This suggests that India’s acquisition of ISR capabilities, real time war simulations, cyber technology capable of automating threat detection and up gradation of conventional weapons to AI based could become a major concern for Pakistan’s national security in near future. These systems primarily use two of AI systems i.e., machine learning and autonomy, the combination of two makes effective weapons. In fact, in the broader sense, Indian quest for Artificial intelligence generates a severe instability for the whole south Asian region and has the potential to alter the political dynamics of the region which could become one of the foremost deciding factors in international alliances. The main responsible actor in the play would be the US which aims to counter China by supporting India to become a regional hegemon as is stated in its Indo pacific strategy 2022[iii]. This Indo-US alliance covers a wide range of cooperation, central of which is the AI technology making India compatible to China, which, however, is far superior in the AI technology. India cannot compete China though, it is much ahead than its south Asian neighbors particularly Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. Thus, Indian procurement creates a situation of strategic instability for the whole region.
As for the two traditional nuclear rivals, Pakistan and India, maintenance of deterrence is mandatory for peace which now could be at crossroads as is it a matter of time that India would be successful for converting its nuclear weapon delivery systems into AI. It also has the potential to start an arms race as principal factor here is the insecurity caused by India through its highly sophisticated weapons. Ultimately, the arms race exerts negative impacts on nonproliferation which at broader level would be a threat to regional peace and stability.
The induction of precision-based weapons portrays image of India on a threshold of its ready arsenal posture unlike its stated recessed arsenal posture[iv] i.e., Rafale F3-R induction in Indian Air force having increased autonomy with enhanced equipment and armament[v]. Also, the induction of lethal autonomous weapons (LAW’s) i.e., killer robots and UAV’s highly precise and lethal promotes a trend of lethality in warfare setting the precedent for upcoming states to follow the line.
The establishment of Defense Research and Development Organization’s Quantum Technology Center in 2021, aiming to achieve capabilities in quantum computing, communication, and devices within five years, is another concern for Pakistan. India’s joint ventures with Israel and the US in quantum technology have far-reaching impacts on defense as it renders encryption useless, risking traditional communication methods of the military. Moreover, Indian procurement of AI based weapons further widens the gap in horizontal conventional asymmetry among the two. With the Indian army already two times larger than Pakistan, the addition of advanced AI-based technologically sophisticated weapons makes it severely insecure. Pakistan cannot be vertically balanced with it thus the only option left for Pakistan is to enhance its tactical nuclear capabilities and maintain deterrence through it.
Way forward:
In this era of AI renaissance, Pakistan needs a grand strategy at national level to prioritize its national security objectives. To be precise, it needs a multilateral approach involving all sectors of society to participate and encourage AI technological development. The primary stakeholders could be investors, private sectors and military combine working on ideas implementing the technology not only on military aspect but health care, education, communication, and infrastructure too. Without catching up with the advanced world, national security of Pakistan could not be ensured. The more viable solution in this regard considering the present volatile times is that military should be the central authority on implementation and incorporation of AI technology into considering their efficiency and goal orientation. However, once considerable capabilities are achieved, the program should be handed over to civilian government.
Taking into account shifting global dynamics moving towards multi polarization, Pakistan should make new alliances. If US could partnership with India in technology, why not Pakistan made cooperation with Russia and China in latest technology. In this realist world, Pakistan should seek its national interests too.
Since the domains of warfare have been broadened therefore, sole traditional military tactics are not a viable option for Pakistan unless it is coupled with latest AI or quantum technology. For instance, Minefields detection could be done by using smart vehicle or robot that detects and neutralizes them without the aid of human or border patrol of soldiers could be replaced by advanced robots or drones. This is so far from the best viable solution for difficult borders like Siachen where border petrol could be done by Robots thus saving military in terms manpower.
Now, Pakistan should invest in defensive capabilities of AI in missile and cyber technology to counter the potential threat from India. It would be much better for Pakistan if it starts from defensive mode of action slowly taking into offensive level.
Considering severe politico-economic crises, there is a severe lack of funds to pursue this kind of ventures in AI which in near future would be crucial to adopt. Currently, Pakistan military budget is 1,450 billion according to 2022-2023 budget speech[vi] which is considerably low as compared to other countries. One way of managing its expenditure could be developing indigenous expertise and collaborating with other countries preferably with better economies but lack of expertise like South Africa or Arab Countries. This interdependence may be able to serve the purpose.
As for the regional security and stability, it is the Indian quests that always had hampered the any possible means for peace and stability of the region. Pakistan had to become a nuclear power due to India and now it is on another quest which alters the balance of power in the region. Therefore, Pakistan should emphasize international community and nonproliferation regime to incorporate AI based weapon development and deployment in arms control and nonproliferation agreements.
In conclusion, the development of AI-powered weapons is rapidly changing the face of modern warfare, and India’s advancements in this area may prove to be a significant challenge for Pakistan. For a peaceful South Asia, it is duty of the two nuclear powers India and Pakistan to start a dialogue and confidence building measures regarding military strategies in terms of AI for the sake of national as well as regional security. India should understand that the US alliance provides nothing but damaged and destroyed regions as American politics is based on their own interests. US will eventually left but the geography of the two countries would not change and therefore, In the end it will only be the region that will have to embrace the impact of American Interests.
As both nations are nuclear-armed, the adoption of AI-powered weapons and the potential implications of their use require careful consideration and evaluation to ensure mutual security and stability in the region.
References:
[i] United Nations Industrial Development Organization, “Government AI Readiness Index 2022,” January 2023, accessed March 30, 2023, https://www.unido.org/sites/default/files/files/2023-01/Government_AI_Readiness_2022_FV.pdf
[ii] “ARBEL: AI-Based Firing System,” SPS Naval Forces, accessed March 30, 2023, https://www.spsnavalforces.com/experts-speak/?id=544&h=ARBEL-AI-based-Firing-System
[iii] White House, “United States Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific,” February 2022, accessed March 30, 2023, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/U.S.-Indo-Pacific-Strategy.pdf.
[iv] Rajesh M. Basrur, “India’s Emerging Nuclear Posture: Between Recessed Deterrent and Ready Arsenal,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 13, 2001, accessed March 30, 2023,
[v] Saurav Jha, “Smart Attack,” FORCE, January 2023, accessed March 30, 2023, https://forceindia.net/cover-story/smart-attack/.
[vi] Shaukat Tarin, “Budget Speech 2022-2023,” Ministry of Finance, Government of Pakistan, accessed March 30, 2023, https://www.finance.gov.pk/budget/Budget_2022_23/Budget_Speech_english_2022_23.pdf.