by Amit Ranjan Alok 21 September 2022
South Asia comprises of eight countries .i.e, India , Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Srilanka and Maldives. South Asian state possesses similarities in languages, politics, economy, culture, administrative and legal processes, but South Asia is far from homogenous region .
South Asia is the southern region of South Asia ,which is defined in both geographical and ethno cultural terms .Topographically,I t is dominated by Indian plate and defined by the Indian Ocean on south and Himalaya , Karakoram, and Pamir mountains on the north. The Amu Darya,, which rises north of Hindu Kush forms the north western border; and on land, South Asia is bounded by Western Asia, Central Asia, south east Asia, and East Asia.The terms “Indian subcontinent” and South Asia are some times used interchangeably .The Indian subcontinent is a largely a geographical term referring to the land mass that drifted northeastward from ancient Gondwana, colliding with the Eurasian plate nearly 55mn years ago, towards the end of paleocene epoch. It is home of 1.94 billion population (2020) on around 51 lakh sq km2of area. Moreover, it consists of heterogeneous mix of different religion, like Hinduism, Buddhism, Jainism, Zoroastrian and Muslims etc. It means that it flourished on mix culture(melting pot culture), which is symbol of peace and tranquility in this region, barring few incidents.
The Indus Valley civilisation gives earlier picture of South Asian region as whole, which flourished around 3000BC to 1500 BC. Indus Valley was rich in culture, tradition, and they had also trade relations with other civilisations, like Egypt, Mesopotamia etc.
The Modern history period of South Asia, that is 16th century onwards, witnessed the start of the central Asian dynasty named Mughals, with Turkish -Mongol roots and Islam theology. The first ruler was Babur , and their successive descendants ruled almost all part of South Asia. Maritime trade between South Asia and European Merchants began after Portuguese explorer Vasco de gama , and flourished thereafter successive ruling over period of time.
The Epistemology of South Asian region
Mythological South Asia in Puranas -India is described as Jambudweep, a mega island or Maha dweep(continent). If India and its surrounding terrain of neighbouring country are included it indeed looks like a continent. The continent encompasses five distinctly different geomorphological domains or provinces of the Himalaya, girdling the almost flat expanse of the Indo-Gangetic plan .
Megasthenese’s Indica gives an account of meeting with Chandragupta, and also associated with Megasthenese and Porus, the great dynast of the Punjab, who governed the plains for Alexender and died around 318 BC, Megasthenese even went further deep into Chandragupta region to gain good geographical, political, and societal account of the great vast region which is known as India.
In medieval period, Al -Biruni also describes the social and cultural history of India and to the some extent also mentioned about South Asia in his book “ kitab- ul hind” and in depth describes about the economic and political linkages between south asia and Middle eastern countries.
For nearly two decades, until the onset of global financial crisis in2008 , South Asian economies enjoyed rapid growth and an impressive reduction in poverty. This fueled optimism about sustained high growth in the coming decades and the possibility of single digit poverty by the end of the period . It was stressed that policy reform would need to continue strengthen governance, improve the business climate, upgrade education system and attract investment in infrastructure from overseas as well as domestic.
South Asian economy also depends upon the remittance they receive from other country like India receives huge remittances from gulf countries and also from other countries. Being the Landlocked country like Nepal, Bhutan, and Afghanistan they don’t have port access of their own they have to depend upon either land route or air route, however this doesn’t seems lucrative due to various geopolitical and economical reason .
In 2013, Chinese president and communist party general secretary Xi jinping initiated the one belt one road project(OBOR) . It is primarily a Beijing financed infrastructure project, which aims to bolster china’s connectivity through central, south, and south east Asia, all the way into Middle East, Africa, and Europe .Xi Jinping contrasted this ambitions undertaking with the late Chinese paramount leader, Deng Xiaoping’s hide your strength and bide your time strategy(……….), which emphasised strengthening domestic capacities and avoiding external involvement . It was Xi who progressed towards its ambitions to transform China from regional power to future superpower.
OBOR or BRI:One belt one road is still used in China and in the Chinese language, but China simplified it to BRI for others. While OBOR implies two routes, Road part denotes Maritime route through the Indian Ocean, and the Belt part connotes the land part of the project.
BRI project is master plan of Chinese foreign policy and core aim of people’s republic of China for the foreseeable future, all the way to 2049, when the 100th anniversary to communist party of China to make china as formidable power in the world.
Nevertheless, the BRI poses a whole gamut of serious security challenges in South Asia, for the traditional conflict, centred on territorial and border dispute and potential naval competition with India in Indo- pacific region.
HAND AND LEGS OF OBOR
THE CHINA PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR (CPEC):
The CPEC, US $62 billion project, lies at the heart of silk economic belt and maritime road and it connects the both routes through Gwadar port in Pakistan ‘s Baluchistan province , utilising a planned 3000 km network of road, railways, and pipelines originating from Kashgar in china’s Xinjiang Uighurs Autonomous region. As China is taking into account of malacca dilemma, It wants to propose alternative route to reach Pakistan and gulf countries, by reducing over-relainace on Indian Ocean and to maintain continuity in supply of energy from middles east countries as china is highly dependent in energy security from Middle East and OPEC countries.
However, the CPEC brings a set of regional security implication for South Asia, mainly driven by New Delhi’s s three main concern — Territorial sovereignty, security and deepening China -Pakistan relationship. Moreover, china’s billion dollar project runs through the disputed territory of gilgit baltistan , part of Jammu and Kashmir which India considers as integral part of India’s territory, on other way round Pakistan consider gilgit -baltistan province is its part where Chinese project is passing through. India considers Jammu and Kashmir is its territory and China Pakistan joint project is violation of India’s sovereignty and Terriorial integrity. Speaking at 70th session of UN General assembly in 2015 , India’s defence minister A K Antony exclaimed about India’s reservation about the proposed China -Pakistan economic corridor stem from the fact that it passes through the Indian territory and illegally occupied by Pakistan for many years. In conventional international discourse, the Jammu and Kashmir was dispute between two parties—India and Pakistan , but the CPEC brought China into its fold . The new dimension brought the three nuclear power into head to head conflict. China and India went to war in 1962 over the border dispute along the Himalayas in northern and eastern India .
India’s other concern about the CPEC is that it can increase the Chinese milita presence in disputed territory, including the Pakistan occupied portion of Kashmir, which can create serious security implications for India while China argues that it is necessary to deploy forces to protect the Chinese investment in tumultuous region of South Asia. The another cause of concern is China employing their own workforce in doing this project and extracting the mineral resources of that country and sending profit to own country,I.e china( drain of wealth) from loan recipient countries. However, there are many attack in Chinese assets in these country, especially in Pakistan where Baloch liberation army(BLA) is major road block in completion of project on the ground that they thinks China is exploiting the natural resources available to their country. In response to attack Pakistan and provincial government adopted coordinated approach in protecting the chinese investment. In addition to all Pakistan created one special security division, headed by two star Pakistani army general comprising of 15000 soldiers.
India sees the shift in Beijing’s Kashmir position as emblematic of deepening the China Pakistan strategic partnership . From Indian perspective, the CPEC marks the emergence of China as Pakistan’s principal external partner replacing the United States . This comes at the time of deteriorating Sino-US relations, improving the India -US ties, and emerging tension between India and China .While Kashmir’s emergence as a land bridge between China and Pakistan sharpens the traditional geopolitical divide between New Delhi and Beijing.
THE BANGLADESH – CHINA-INDIA-MYANMAR ECONOMIC CORRIDOR(BCIM-EC)
In the late 1990s some ideas emerged from china’s yunnan province about a possible sub-regional cooperation involving south western China , eastern India and whole Myanmar and Bangladesh. Among the other features this region has seen as confluence zone of three market,i,e China, south east Asia and South Asia and thereby connecting the two major markets of china and India and even whole Asia. Second argument for this project was as this regions suffers from infrastructure backwardness, however its rich natural resources promises huge potential for large scale development. And, in last this region has remained isolated from world market so far. Henceforth by connecting this route they can enjoy vast market potential for their prosperity and growth.
The 2800km BCIM corridor proposes to link kunming , china’s Yunan province with Kolkata by passsing through nodes such as Mandalay in Myanmar and Dhaka in Bangladesh before heading to Kolkata . BCIM -EC predates the BRI by 14 years, as it was first mooted in 1999 by China during the sub-regional forum in track -2 initiatives to connects the backward regions of south west China and north east part of India via the infra structurally deficient countries of Myanmar and Bangladesh. However, this project was started with fanfare but didn’t realised much on the ground.Indian opposition remains the principal obstacle however, as BRI evolves, Beijing priorities BCIM-EC as major loop to the greater sub regional connectivity plan and it is increasingly coupled with and compared against the other BRI sub -regional projects like CPEC.
The BCIM-EC , albeit promises massive infrastructural investment and greater market connectivity, runs through contentious and insurgency prone borders and region . India is sceptical about this project because it is being said in indian diplomatic dbate that China might export insurgent elements to Indias’s North east which is very volatile region and can create instability in mainland India, and hamper the territorial sovereignty and integrity of nation . Separatist aspirations have challenged the governance since India’s independence from Britain in 1947, nevertheless the violence is on decline in recent years , but still India doesn’t want to entrap in such situation which can create instability in their domestic politics and create separatist outlook in Northeastern state.
Myanmar and Bangladesh owing to Rohingya refugee crisis, also don’t have easy relationship ,both countries participation are clouded by lamenting Rohingya issue. Bangladesh might view the construction of connectivity corridor without resolution of this outstanding issue to provide Rohingya direct accessibility to mainland country. Although,the international community is pressurising the Myanmar to resolve the Rohingya crisis without any further delay. However , Myanmar has used china’s diplomatic and economic cover to protect itself from global mounting pressure and hardened it’s instances .
Consequently, the Rohingya crisis is deepening —embittering Bangladesh -Myanmar relations .In long run,the persistence of large Rohingya refugee presence in Bangladesh will pose grave security threat to regional stability and prosperity of the nation and also there is possibility of creating domino effect in neighbouring countries.
THE TRANS-HIMALAYAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR (THEC)
Historically, Nepal has prospered until the advent of the east India company into the subcontinent as an economic corridor and a civilisational bridge between adjoining northern India and Tibet .
Nepal has made it clear that it wishes to facilitate as land bridge between Central Asia and South Asia, hence welcoming the southern extension of OBOR which is integral part of belt and road initiative of China.
The USD 2.75billion trans Himalayan project under the controversial law belt and road initiative (BRI) is considered to be one of the most ambitious project that Chinese president envision in landlocked country like Nepal. The trans -Himalayan economic corridor is centred around the not yet built China -Nepal railway. The plans envisions to connect this railway with Tibetan railway providing unprecedented access to China in South Asia via landlocked Nepal. Both India and China are competing to built railway line in Nepal owing to strategic and geopolitical reason.
China started building road since 2013 in Nepal and has included this project in its Nepal -China trans Himalayan multidimensional connectivity network.
Nepal is landlocked country, it does have port access of own, henceforth it has to rely on other country for its needs. Nepal has been longtime traditional partner of India with India controlling Nepal’s access to goods via its land border barring Indian side it is surrounded by Himalayan mountain ranges.
Nepal has long looked to counterbalance India’s massive strategic influence by embracing Chinese plan to spend million on improving the infrastructure and energy needs China in this region has deep pocket and more technical capabilities in this regions with respect to other countries in this region. Therefore it is natural to tilt Nepal towards development and fulfillment of its needs. Although, India and Nepal is Hindu majority country having greater linguistics, ethnic and cultural similarities however 2015 blockade has turned their deep relationship into deep mystery to show its disapproval in unfolding changes to Nepali constitution. The blockade created deep shortfall of fuel, basic food stuffs, Medicine ,and post earth quake material ensured suffering irked the Nepalis people led souring the India -Nepal relations.
In aiding Nepal, China has its own greater geopolitical ambitions to china’s broader plan includes connecting the proposed Nepal-China railway eventually to Lhasa via Tibet which is autonomous region in which China has long wanted to exert greater influence in this region. Tibet, a historical buffer between India and China has increasingly come under central Chinese control despite being autonomous region China has built strategic infrastructure in tibet to enable it to rapidly reinforce its military presence. The Trans-himalayans railway could place Nepal in debt to Chinese heavy financing and heightening India’s security concern .
It is based on the firm belief that a THEC can profoundly transform the entire southeastern Himalayan sub region and Ganges basin -where most of the world’s absolute poor and deprived people live -with the benefits for all. The south-eastern Himalayan sub region and the Ganges basin need a big push in infrastructure investment coupled with far more robust annual economic growth rates to meet the challenges posed by its poverty, mass unemployment, and massive under employment of its human capital . As also risks arising from natural disasters, climate change, global warming , and not least, water, food, health and energy security threats. Amidst the development and security challenges faced by Himalayan sub region, the emergence of Asia as a world economic fulcrum led by China -and a China that is in the throes of “look west” national strategy offers grand opportunities to deal with these challenges.
The envisaged project would enormously benefit China ,India, and Nepal, especially bodh Gaya, Saranath, and Kushinagar in Bihar. Even in 2011, Nepali prime minister mentioned that, Nepal should act as a “friendship bridge” and dispense with the notion that it is “yam between two stones”.
It should be noted that China has already invited India to join this project, however due to strategic concerns it is avoiding its inclusion in the project , because it is so close to Indian border where project is envisaged to run and facilitate the growth of Chinese and Nepal economy.
THE MARITIME SILK ROAD (MSR)
The 21st century’s MSR was conceived and mooted alongside the Silk Road economic belt as a part of the larger BRI, aiming to strengthen its hold over Indian Ocean region(IOR), extending from Bay of Bengal to whole Indian Ocean part and it will also extend to Eurasian region through the Persian gulf. In addition to enhancing regional connectivity, the initiatives hope to revive china’s historical and cultural linkages which was involved through the maritime part of Silk Road. Most of the Chinese silk apart from land route are traded through maritime route only. MSR encompasses variety of project which includes road, railways, airports, ports, natural gas pipeline, Highways, bridges etc .
Hambantota was the initial project of MSR at the fishing village in Srilanka, later they got it for 99years on lease. On the day of hambantota handover, Chinese official news agency tweeted another milestone have been achieved under its ambitious project (BRI).
Though,there was celebration amongs Chinese , but on other way round there was great disappointment in srilankan commmunity, later they came up with localised protest in different part of Srilanka to showcase their concern with Chinese BRI project.
Amid the local protest, accusation was also propped up as Srilanka is selling its sovereignty to Chinese communist party(CPC). Srilanka which experienced decade long civil war in past between Sinhalese and Tamil nationality, their wound is further dependent by national crisis involving international players.
In china’s grand strategy, hambantota is an important foothold and part of its “string of pearls strategy” for the indo -pacific. Other pearls in this line is Pakistan’s Gwadar port, which is being also developed by Chinese company with its input and even its own workforce. By the way it has provided employment to its citizens and sending remittance to its country, and avoiding the involvement of local population in this project.
In addition to the Gwadar port, Myanmar’s kyaukpu is also in the strings of pearls strategy.
Gwadar deep sea port , is located close to mouth of the Persian gulf just below the straits of Hormuz -and is a key element of the greater CPEC. The port is being developed by the Chinese overseas port holding company (COPHC) to which it was leased by Pakistan government for 40 years in April 2017. Although Gwadar is currently under civilian facility however, New Delhi suspects it is a part of Chinese strategy to create naval base and its strategy of maritime power projection into Indian Ocean. The prospects of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy in Gwadar forms another link in China’s effort to expand it’s maritime presence in Indian pacific Region and enhance their power projection capability, not even in Indian Ocean but also across the continent to counterbalance the United States and India, especifically.
To provide security to the Chinese assets in Pakistan, host country formed a special task force 88 to safeguard the strategic assets in Pakistan. Even some media report has highlighted that the port city has turned into fortress with Chinese security and of course with Pakistan’s security personnel. In turn these measure of turning the Pakistan’s land into its fortress irked the local population of Baluchistan and Gwada , exacerbating the existing tension within Pakistan about unequal allocation of resources across the federation.
Moreover, in this line of string of pearls strategy it also hoped to construct one more strategic port in sonadia, a gateway to the Bay of Bengal but due to opposition from India project didn’t take off on the ground. Finally they have to held off this project from the list of maritime silk road(MSR) strategy. However, China didn’t remain silent even though it doubled down its engagement with Bangladesh in other strategic infrastructure projects such as pyra seaport lending further legitimacy to India’s suspicion of China trying to encircle India on the seas. To compensate the sonadia project of Bangladesh it came with another project but this time not in Bangladesh it is Myanmar with similar alternatives—kyauk phyu ,falls in rakhine state—the origin of Rohingya a crisis. Not mere the kyauk phyu is under control of China its exclusive economic zone but a 2806 km long oil gas pipeline connecting kyauk phyu to the landlocked city of kunming in china’s yunan province. Chinese control over this port extends its enormous economic interest in rakhine state and beyond.
The tiny climate -vulnerable country, and India’s closed neighbors Maldives also holds immense strategic importance to China. Both China and Indian views the Maldives as the fulcrum for strategic aspirations in Indian Ocean. In recent years the country has partially sheds its reliance on India as a strategic partne and inched closer to China . Maldives has also negotiated with China for constructing long term lease of port. Even, ousted president Abdulla yameen strongly supported china’s BRI and courted Chinese financing to build infrastructure. Yameen’s increasing borrowing tendency towards China has put Maldivian citizen into trouble and fear of sovereignty issue led ouster of yameen from president position in 2018.
And in recent years the deep engaging ties between Maldivian and Chinese governments has put India into lens of scepticism of encroachment of China in its neighbouring country which could be of great concern for India in future .
India has long been an important security provider and strategic partner to island nation like Maldives and srilanka. Although, these islands are small but lies in crucial part of sea lines of communication (SLOC). And, in addition to this it offers a significant basis for projecting power and securing and protecting key trading routes which accounts one third of global trade therefore ignoring these country could be big mistake from Indian side .
Chinese maritime strategy aimed at rapid expansion in the indo -pacific reflects Alfred T Mahan’s sea power hypothesis —“whoever controls the Indian ocean will dominate the whole Asia”.To this end MSR offers a unique pathway for China to access a strategic ports surrounding the Indian Ocean region, ranging from Gwadar to kayak phyu and hambantota respectively.
To protect own interest and follow the power projection strategy in Mahanian sense it is also following the path of China by building ports, such as chabahar in Iran is widely seen as attempt to counter the presence of China in Gwadar and along the MSR road more broadly. To reduce the Chinese imprint and fan out its influence in Indo-pacific region India came up with project Mausam, a cultural initiative to develop a narrative about India’s historical links with these countries in littoral region. Many scholars and observers say this as to counter the Chinese maritime Silk Road initiative. As China is ratcheting up its sphere of influence in India neighbourhood countries it increases competition between two Asia giants and ultimately poses a threat to regional security and stability in Indian Ocean.
More recently, India came up with mission SAGAR(security and growth for all in the region) in 2015. It is India’s strategic vision for India ocean region and to counter the Chinese influence in the region. Moreover, it also envisions to strengthen the ties with Indian ocean littoral countries by providing security in this region and humanitarian assistance disaster relief to these countries in the time of need .
In the pandemic period India under the SAGAR mission provided medical assistance and also send medical team to theses countries to cope up the surging cases of COVID in littoral state.
In 2017, India ,United States , Japan, and Australia revived the informal quadrilateral security dialogues ,also known as QUAD established in 2007 in response to massive Chinese investment in Indo-pacific waters . As China continues to increase its geographical outreach into IOR with the BRI projects, it may encouraged India to drop its earlier reluctance and took part in quad security dialogue more actively.Many analyst says in long run, India may opt to form a partnership with other democratic and like minded countries to balance growing Chinese outreach in the IOR but such trend will eventually increase arms competition and make smaller countries more vulnerable.
THE FUTURE DIVIDENDS
The above discussion revels the security threats to South Asia presented by china’s BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE (BRI). Some threats are existing and some may come down in future as time will pass on. Though in March 2015 China issued a action plan which described the main objective of the BRI which states that the broad objective and listed the economies, that would be involved in BRI project. China repeatedly held its main objective is to provide world class infrastructure to less and backward economies at par with large economies of the world. in addition, to do away the infrastructural backwardness in this region and also visualise to integrate into global supply chain and gain from world free and liberal trade order regime.
While infrastructure is key aspects of this project China states it is much broader than its objective encompassing all aspects of the sustainable growths, and following the sustainable developmental goal in letter and sprit to achieve before it ends.
Along with its sustainable growth objective for itself it also includes more balanced regional growth the upgrading of its industry and greener economy at home and abroad as well.
As stated by China the focus on connectivity within the BRI is both about facilitating trade and investment and thereby development of neighbouring countries all along with it.
China will need to ensure that BRI doesn’t simply shift excess capacity and less environmental friendly energy resources to other countries with little net gain from global perspective in this way BRI could make a strong contribution to 2030 sustainable developmental goals .
It was also pointed out that creating and improving free trade blocks along the belt and road initiative is an explicit objective of China but it doesn’t seems to clear for now.
However, BRI doesn’t only expands to only one continent its limbs are spewed to other parts also,south Africa, Eurasia etc .There is possibility of forming a trade block and regional integration is also one of the manifestation can be for China if it really wants development and reviving the old glory of Chinese Ming dynasties legacy across the continent like India, Africa, central Asia and other parts where the silk route can be traced.
In present world order there are few regional free trade agreements, like European union(EU), NAFTA , and obviously ASEAN etc ,if BRI expansion remains unabated and benign intention of China via BELT AND ROAD initiative continued, though country are objecting the Chinese infrastructure projects in its own country citing its “debt trap diplomacy” of China and exploiting the natural resources of the region and exporting the benefit to mainland china, it can be visualised as regional or intercontinental free trade agreement where China would remain in the centre of free trade agreement.
Most anticipated outcome of BRI it tries to achieve so called strategic objectives. it connects a vast web of countries and cities across Asia, Africa and Europe. These connections improve the the regional coordination while also facilitating the growth of international trade and foreign direct investment would be pour into region owing to infrastructural development and better connectivity etc.
The next outcome is in which there are increased fears of the rise of China as the dominant player in the world politics and economies such fear can lead to decrease international trade and cross border investment. Moreover, in this line another outcome could be rise of the corporate sector in China as a true global player through the greater level of internationalisation .This outcome would create the situation of vibrant international competition which if opened for fair competition for outdoor can create a series of win-win outcomes for the consumers and countries alike.
Much pressed, especially that related to so called debt trap phenomenon .The ideas here is that Chinese politician and business group using the spectre of economic growth and eased barrier to infrastructure development to entice the host country politician to sign financial deal that can never be repaid like srilanka’s hambantota port . But the counter question arises here is that without disputing the Chinese debt trap policy many Chinese author has pointed out that it is not the Chinese strategy of new colonialism rather thinking about the prosperity of backward country and greater interest in facilitation of world trade. Chinese scholars repeatedly exclaimed in public forathat you should also be cognisant of the point that assets that China are building under the trillion dollar project lies in the host country where there is no so much presence of Chinese military and civil authority it is much in sovereign control of the host country and China have no jurisdiction at all in these country. It also respects the jurisdiction of country where the Chinese project is being build or have been completed.
Here, I am listing some of the opportunity underscored by the world bank as follows……..
Infrastructure and policy gaps in belt and road corridor economies hinders trade and foreign investment . New infrastructure can help to close these gap but its costly —and investment are occurring in the context of rising public debt which could be concern for the countries.
Second, the BRI transport projects can expand trade increase the foreign direct investment ,and reduce the poverty and create new employment in the region, by lowering the trade cost ,yet for the some countries the cost of new infrastructure could outweigh the gains and there is need for greater introspection in country and under the policy groups.
In the line of another opportunity underlined by the world bank complementary policy reforms can maximise the positive effects of BRI transport projects and ensure that the gains are widely shared. For the some countries, the reforms are precondition to having net gains from the BRI transport projects .
The BRI presents risks common to large infrastructure projects .these risks could be exacerbated by the limited transparency and openness of the initiative and the weak economic fundamentals and governance of several participating countries, the real intention and the outcome of BRI can be known by only China because China is shredded so much opaqueness,not only in BRI projects and even in most of the Domain you can infer such opacity.
THE WAY FORWARD
From India perspective,for its part of BRI ,i.e CPEC needs to adopt a proactive strategy not reactive tactics only .If India continues to apply reactive strategy it will exhaust it resources chasing China as China has bigger economic clout, so it should not be strategy to follow China in economic terms .
One key to counter Chinese growing clout in south Asian region could be collaborative approach. Since there is great convergence between India and Japan for quality of infrastructure and Japan is also helping India in development of many infrastructure project in India’s sensitive region,north-east, therefore India along with Japan can do in collaboration develop project in third country, ike Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Srilanka which is infrastructure deficient country.
Along with mere Japan, New Delhi needs to collaborate actively within United States, Australia and region’s smaller countries to construct a sustainable and more viable alternative to China-led infrastructure model. This economic foundation cooperation platform could provide a moving forward approach to tackle the security challenges presented by china’s BRI.
The global Hegemon of the world, United States should play a leading role as regional security provider or guarantor in this region. However, initiating an overtly anti China front is unlikely to gain significant support in this region but growing scepticism about BRI project definitely provide an opportunity to US to offer viable alternatives to Chinese loan and project . What US should do is to customise its free and open Indo-pacific strategy according to regional need of this region and rope in the other regional power next to China in countering China in this forefront region of Chinese cloud . As India could be great option for this strategy. Moreover, in this following line they are under QUAD but its clear ambition is still not defined ,what is agenda of the and whether it would be used in countering China in this region or for other purpose. By recognising the smaller countries concern in this region, the United States could promote shared value and address common security concerns . Maintaining traditional US support for development and liberal values will be especially useful in countering trends towards exploitative economies and autocratic governance.
Given the similarity of ideologies , size and deepening importance of India, the United States should consider India a linchpin of its regional security architecture in Indian Ocean region. United states will have to prioritising interest and make some compromises. Over-prioritising on India in this region can make smaller countries looks like less important vis- a vis India which can jeopardise the objectives of regional security architecture.
The region’s six smaller nation should exert diplomatic pressure on India and Pakistan to set aside their hostility and cooperate in the best interest of the region. Regional leader needs to alternative initiative to SAARC as it is moribund for long time , like BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal initiative for multi sectoral technical and economic cooperation) and Bangladesh , Bhutan , India , Nepal initiative (BBIN)—also fails to get traction due to this doesn’t include all south Asian economies and moreover all these barring India are weak economy —they must recognise that the only way to protect their regional interest is to work together as a bloc like the European union(EU) and ASEAN .
By the follow bathe spirit of these organisations and keeping apart the hostility of one another this region can become one of the prosperous and secure region of world with all endowed natural resources.
Bibliography:
Anwar, Anu(2021) South Asia and china’s belt and road initiative : security implications and ways forward
McBride,james(2020), chatzky, Andrew, council on foreign relations: china’s massive belt and road initiative.
OECD, (2018), china’s belt and road initiative in the global trade, investment and finance landscape.
World bank(2019), Belt and road economies : opportunities and risks of transport corridor.