Zafar Iqbal Yousafzai 10 October 2021
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan at the end of August 2021 ended the US-Pakistan cooperation in Afghanistan, which lasted for two decades. Despite huge losses borne by Pakistan in the war on terror since the US invasion of Afghanistan, Washington is not happy with Islamabad over the precarious situation and the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan. Like its past history, the US-Pakistan post-9/11 relations are also bumpy. Pakistan is putting forward its efforts and cooperation and losses caused in the war on terror while the US accuses the former of supporting the Taliban.
It is clear now and Washington has acknowledged that they have lost the war in Afghanistan. However, they are now in search of what factors caused their defeat in Afghanistan? At the end of last month, twenty-two Republican Senators moved a bill in the US Senate named: ‘Afghanistan Counterterrorism, Oversight, and Accountability Act. The bill anticipates assessing the US campaign in Afghanistan, sanction the Taliban and those who assisted them. The bill suggests, “as a specially designated global terrorist under part 594 of title 31, Code of Federal Regulations and related laws.” It seeks to ban Taliban representatives from membership of the United Nations General Assembly or any other world body. However, the bill carries critical clauses for Islamabad which experts believe can be sanctioned, if substantial evidence were provided. This article seeks to analyze how this bill if passed and enacted can have an impact on the future course of the US-Pakistan relationship.
The main element that brings US-Pakistan relations to their lowest ebb is the trust deficit between both states. Though the US-Pakistan relationship started with cordial affairs between both states yet the first factor that affected it was the Indian factor. Washington’s tilt towards New Delhi resented Islamabad and the perception that the US follow only its own interests while ignoring Pakistan started and it still exists. Pakistan remained the closest ally in the Cold War and during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in late 1979. However, whenever the US interests served, they turned their back to Pakistan.
When the Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan, Washington imposed Pressler Amendment Act that provided for sanctions on Pakistan. Islamabad assumed this development a great betrayal by Washington with its ally in defeating the Soviets in Afghanistan. Nevertheless, following the September 11 attacks on the US mainland, it needed Pakistan to invade Afghanistan to bring the culprits of 9/11 to justice. This time too, Pakistan fully cooperated with the US and provide them with logistic and intelligence support. Pakistan arrested a handful of Al-Qaeda terrorists and handed them over to the US. However, the ‘do more’ mantra did exist in the post-9/11 US-Pakistan affairs, and Washington kept continue its carrots and stick policy.
Even Pakistan helped the US in the Afghan peace process from its start to the US withdrawal and facilitated the US. However, the recently presented bill in the US Senate reminds us Pressler Amendment that had sanctioned Pakistan. Nonetheless, the current situation is quite different from that of the 1990s. There is multipolarity in the global order. There is the rise of China and Russia that challenges the US hegemony. China at the moment is ready to fill the gap the US has left in Afghanistan. The Chinese political and economic aid to the Taliban is an indication they may likely fill the gap.
Though the bill will still be discussed and it will take time however, it has an impact on the US-Pakistan relations and it widens the trust deficit that already existed between both states. The Pressler Amendment act was enacted but was conditioned with the evaluation of the president on yearly basis. On one hand, experts see this bill as a result of internal politics between Democrats and Republicans while some see it as a source of pressure on Pakistan, the Taliban, and even other countries close to the Taliban like Russia and China. If the US sanctions Pakistan or pressurizes it, it will hugely affect the future course of US Pakistan relations and will embolden Pakistan to go for other options than Washington. Similarly, it can further bring Pakistan close to China and Russia.