by Gursimran K. Bakshi 7 August 2021
The United States-Taliban peace deal, signed on February 29, 2020, required the US military troops and its North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) alliance to reduce their presence in Afghanistan and eventually leave the country by May 1, 2021 (now August 31, 2021). This was in consideration that the Taliban would cut all its ties with Al-Qaida. With the change of the US presidency, the new President Joe Biden was more than willing to fulfil this promise and end America’s longest war. However, no second thought was given to this move and how it may potentially push back Afghanistan to its war-torn state or maybe worse than that.
As US troops’ presence has significantly lessened and with their withdrawal from the Bagram airbase, the military presence has nearly ended. But the hurried departure has emboldened the potential comeback of the Taliban insurgency. Currently, within days of withdrawal, the Taliban has gained 85% of the territory.
But how did they come back so quickly? The answer lies in the collateral damage made by the US by leaving its military equipment including tanks in the country on the pretext that they have been destroyed or are not up to their military standards. All these fell in the hands of the Taliban, making them powerful again.
The US invaded Afghanistan in 2001 by Operation Enduring freedom, post the 9/11 attacks carried over by Al-Qaeda. The legitimacy of the invasion is based on the law of Authorisation for Use of Military Force (AUMF) which allowed the US to use force in self-defense (Article 51 of the UN Charter) against countries, organisations, and persons that have harboured or aided the terrorists responsible for 9/11 attacks.
The operation was carried out to defeat Al-Qaeda and its leader Osama Bin Laden which were hiding in the safe havens of the Taliban in Afghanistan. Soon, the operation became successful and an interim civil government with Hamid Karzai taking over as the provisional head of the Chairman of the Interim Administration of Afghanistan. The International Security Assistance Force mandated by the UN Security Council under the Bonn Agreement and led by NATO was established to train the Afghan National Security Forces to effectively manage the security. It was based on the idea that the NATO-led alliance would make a power transition once the Afghan forces are established. By 2014, the Afghan forces assumed full security responsibility.
The Taliban gained power in the 1990s in Afghanistan as the result of the end of the soviet union’s invasion in the country. They were entertained by none other than the US forces that wanted to remove the Soviets and their influence from the country. When the Taliban rose to power, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE ardently supported the government. It is also stated that the US was providing military assistance to them to combat the soviet from making a comeback.
Soon, they grew as a de-facto government in power. However, they turned out to be Islamic fundamentalists that governed the country through the Sharia law . They banned women from going out alone, banned girls from attending school, ordered men to grow a beard, and required mandatory training in Islamic militancy to name a few. The Taliban carried out indiscriminate attacks on the civilian populations, executed people publicly and forced them to flee the country to save themselves from persecution and conflict. It also became a safe harbour for Al-Qaeda’s leader Osama Bin Laden.
In 2015, the European Union witnessed an unprecedented refugee crisis and 80% of the refugees belong to Afghanistan, Iran, and Syria. A refugee under the 1951 Refugee Convention is known as someone who flees the country of his nationality for reasons like persecution based on race, religion, political opinion, membership of a social group, and nationality and finds himself unable to return back home.
According to UNHCR, Afghanistan refugees remain the second most vulnerable in the world and almost 2.5 million are registered with UNHCR. The fleeing of people from Afghanistan to find a safe haven has never stopped since then. Within the country, a large number of the population which is approximately four million is already displaced with many facing an unabated poverty crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic has forced them into precarious conditions. It is now estimated that Afghanistan will soon witness a civil war where more people will either become internally displaced or refugees.
Now, the issue is, who is going to take responsibility for the upcoming refugees? Pakistan has previously hosted and is still hosting millions of Afghanistan refugees (three million approximately). But Pakistan has become a harbour of terrorism, while the transition was taking place in Afghanistan, and has been named to have involved in aiding weapons to the Taliban time and again. It does not seem right that the country can safely host any more Afghan refugees, even though recently it has stated that they are ready to host more refugees in special camps if the Taliban starts a civil war.
Whereas, Pakistan’s ally China may also contribute to the refugee situation indirectly. China has shown interest to enter into mediation talks with the Taliban and they consider them as a legitimate government which means in the coming years, they can sharpen ties in an agreement with them supplying military weapons. But China will never take refugees from Afghanistan and the refugees themselves will not be willing to take refuge in a country that has currently detained millions of Uyghur Muslims in so-called re-education camps.
Further, India could have been a good option for refugees but the India’s citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 will not allow the Aghanistan Muslim minorities to seek citizenship in India. The exclusion of Muslim minorities, at least, in the case of Afghanistan, will become more apparent because the Taliban attacks everyone indiscriminately and which means Muslim minorities will be left out to seek refuge in India.
Since the majority of the refugees have sought asylum in the European Union(EU) in the past, it may be expected that they follow the same route. However, the route to enter the EU is difficult and most refugees lose their precious lives while trying to enter the EU through irregular channels such as the sea routes. This leads to nothing but deportation. The 2015 crisis is a witness that the EU countries’ response was far from satisfactory with many member states closing their borders for refugees, or letting them drowning in waters, and others left to die in detention camps.
It is important to understand that the refugee crisis is an international concern. Countries with or without the signatory of the 1951 Convention can still host refugees on a goodwill agreement basis. The Global Compact on Refugees emphasises the need for the international community to extend solidarity and responsibility-sharing. It should start with the EU halting forceful deportation and countries getting together to suggest an equitable responsibility-sharing mechanism to be prepared for the upcoming refugee crisis. Rather than adopting a protectionist approach, the international community must recognise that ‘no one puts their children in a boat unless the water is safer than the land’ as Warsan puts it.