by Nilofar Suhrawardy 7 June 2021
Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears to have become conscious of his strategic cards, frequently used during electoral campaigns, having been considerably derailed by Covid-19. Now, his communication-tactics include emphasis on his approach towards Covid-19. “Whether it is defeat or victory, take a lesson from it and start preparing for the coming elections,” Modi reportedly said to his party members during a meeting at his official residence this Sunday evening (June 6). Living up to his word, Modi addressed the nation on Monday evening laying stress on central government’s Covid-19 Vaccine plans.
With the coming year scheduled to face assembly elections in seven states, of which the most crucial is Uttar Pradesh, Modi’s address may be viewed as a part of his electoral campaign. He is hopeful that this strategy, claims about his vaccination plan and success of central government in checking spread of Covid-19, will considerably convince the voters to support Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Having suffered defeat recently in West Bengal assembly polls, Modi and his party members have apparently learned that they need to focus more strongly on topical issues. Communication strategies which Modi seems to be an expert at cannot always work and that too in each state. Perhaps, Modi’s address with emphasis on vaccine plans indicates that he has silently accepted the negative impact of Covid-19 on his image.
At the same time, while Covid-phase may be held accountable for diminishing appeal of what was once projected as so-called Modi-wave, West Bengal results convey another message. Modi needs to be on guard against strong state leaders. Voters have strongly conveyed this by choosing to support Mamata Bannerjee’s party in these polls. Clearly, regional parties with a firm base in their respective states and headed by popular leaders cannot be easily defeated and/or cornered by however strong national parties and their respective leaders be.
Nevertheless, the coming year may spell a different political scenario. Punjab and Gujarat are among the other states heading for polls in 2022. While it is as yet too early to consider prospects of BJP being pushed out of power in UP and Gujarat, return of Congress to power in Punjab cannot be ruled out.
A lot is dependent in UP on how BJP’s rival parties play their cards. It may be recalled, during 2017 assembly polls in UP, in notable number of seats, total votes won by Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Samajwadi Party (SP) exceeded those secured by BJP by more than 20,000 votes. While BJP won 312 seats, BSP and SP managed to get only 19 and 47 respectively. Yet, it cannot be missed, BSP won around 22% votes, SP- 21%, BJP secured 39% votes. This hard reality apparently prompted SP and BSP to align during 2019 parliamentary elections. While BJP retained its lead in 2019, it won 62 seats, nine lesser than it had secured in 2014; BSP won 10, SP-five and the Congress only seat. Perhaps, had its rivals not remained divided in 2014 parliamentary elections and in 2017 assembly polls, BJP’s fate may have been decided by lesser number of seats.
Undeniably, impact of Modi-wave cannot be ignored in deciding BJP’s luck in UP. However, importance given by rival parties to counter BJP effectively also needs to be paid attention. At present, Modi-wave is not at the peak that it seemed to be during his first term in power. Covid-19 has certainly limited electoral appeal of master cards exercised by Modi while campaigning. This also includes his Ayodhya-card. Success on this front helped him dominate headlines for some time. The same may be said about his government’s decision regarding Jammu & Kashmir’s status, Triple Talaq and also the controversial Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). Now, Covid-phase has left majority of Indians too tensed to be distracted by these issues, including his Ayodhya-show.
Chances of Modi and his team giving up on their Ayodhya-card seem minimal. This is partly suggested by the repeat telecast of once highly popular serial Ramayana. Indians are as religious as they were when this serial was first telecast in late eighties on government channel Doordarshan. Ninety percent of Indian population, which included non-Hindus also, sat glued to their TV-screens to watch this serial. There were also reports of some devout persons actually viewing the serial as a religious exercise. Actor starring as Hindu deity Rama was literally worshipped. Some groups indulged in violent behavior if due to some reason there was power failure disrupting the serial’s telecast.
This happened more than three decades ago, when communication boom had not hit India. Compared to several hundred channels now, there was only one channel in eighties and that too for select hours. Now, viewers have the option to switch on channels round the clock. Besides, several religious programs, including serials, are available now but the question of each and/or all being given the “religious” importance that Ramayana-serial was in late eighties is as good as non-existent. In addition, mobile-era had not yet entered the scene then. Nor had the computer followed by Internet. So people had no access to various means of communication which they have now.
Certainly, Modi has the advantage of using multiple means of communication to spread “news” about his accomplishments. The same can be used to increase negative campaign against his rivals, a strategy that seems to be used fairly often by him and his party members during electoral campaigns. Unfortunately, for him, Covid-phase has substantially derailed the expected positive impact of these electoral strategies. Even rhetoric about 56-inch chest is least likely to convince voters.
Modi may well be expected to talk of BJP winning all 403 assembly seats, during his campaign for UP. But as suggested, a lot may be decided by rival parties’ nature of aligning and campaigning against BJP. It would be sensible of Congress to maintain a low profile in UP as it seems to have in West Bengal. This party needs to focus more on retaining its base in Punjab as it has a long way to go in UP. Congress won only seven seats in 2017 and 6.25% votes.
There is a view, in Bihar assembly polls, the political results may have been different had Congress not insisted on contesting from 70 seats. It won 19 seats. At present, Congress needs to give more importance to respecting strength of BJP’s rivals and aligning with them accordingly, rather than displaying over-confidence about its reach. The party’s first priority in states like UP, where it has weak base, should be to try strategies which would weaken BJP’s present hold, even if this amounts to yielding more to its potential allies, the key rivals of BJP. The percentage of votes won by these parties in 2017 is just an indicator in this direction.
Modi’s recent national address is just a mild indicator of his old communication strategies having been considerably derailed. Now, it is to be watched how, compelled by Covid-phase, Modi and his rivals revise their respective electoral-cards!