Dr. Neha Kumar Tiwari 24 April 2020
The catastrophic outbreak of COVID 19 appears to be altering our ‘already dangerous world’ into more fragile. The pandemic dared the medical sciences and has an unprecedented adverse effect on the economy, world order, and International Relations. Since modern concepts of International Relations are interdependence and globalization, the contemporary nuclear world order might not remain unaffected. Lately post COVID 19 developments to include, questions raised over the viability of continuing Iranian nuclear sanctions and apprehensions on sub-critical nuclear testing by China have raised the alarm of nuclear order in the present scenario. Nuclear order here covers the development in the civil nuclear industry and also nuclear weapons, as the developments in both areas are highly interconnected.
Incidents like the outbreak of COVID 19 among employees of the Rosatam in Russia and sailors aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt has posed a real threat in protecting ensuring the safety of nuclear assets. To make it worst, the German federal police have detained five suspected members of the Islamic group who were planning to stage an attack on US military installations, which includes a nuclear weapons depot. Further, the possibility of the cyber-attacks on the civil nuclear industry cannot be ruled out considering limited employees in nuclear facilities to guard against such threats. As a safety measure, countries are closing their nuclear power units temporarily. Temporarily closure of these units does not pose a direct problem of electricity, given the fact that the demand for electricity has reduced to 20-30 percent due to the lookdown period being observed worldwide. Although, it may have an impact on China’s aspiration to become ‘world leader in civil nuclear energy’ or ‘largest exporter of nuclear energy.’ This is further combined with the fact that some of the countries particularly western countries and their allies may refrain from having engagement with China in post-Covid 19 world, including civil nuclear projects.
Further, the condition of Iran seems to be perilous as COVID 19 has hit its already deteriorating economy. Recommendations have been made to lift various economic sanctions imposed on Iran considering the humanitarian crises. However, Trump administration of the USA has outrightly rejected any such proposal. To add to the misery of Iran, the reduction in oil prices may harm Iran’s economy. As said by Justin Dargin, a Middle East Energy Expert from Oxford University, ‘The fall in oil prices could have more of an effect on the country than Western sanctions has over the past several years.’ With its economy in shambles, it is highly unlikely that Iran would pursue its nuclear programs soon.
All these development when analysed in a larger perspective, does not predict an optimistic future for global nuclear order. Ramifications of the spread of COVID 19 from Chinese soil added with blame on China’s on keeping the world in dark about its spread are visible in the form of strain relation between western countries and China. The US is threatening China to withdraw from the recently concluded trade deal. Japan is considering spending $2 billion to relocate its manufacturing units from China. The UK has already signaled that ‘Business with China will not remain the same in the future.’ India has also acted by imposing restrictions on China by tweaking FDI rules. These developments indicate an adverse impact on the Chinese economy in forthcoming days.
To counterbalance the economic breakdown which will ultimately wane China’s positions in the international power game, the possibility of proliferation of nuclear weapons by China to countries posing threat to the US and its western allies cannot be waived of. An economically defied China may pose higher risks to the nuclear non-proliferation order. The inability of countries like Iran to pursue its nuclear program and fragile conditions of the civil nuclear industry may prompt China to secretly give away its commitments as specified in the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). As a strategy, China has always supported the countries like Pakistan, Iran and North Korea to develop its nuclear weapons program. It helps China to engage its adversaries while at the same time to win its allies. Pakistan and North Korea have acted as a nuclear satellite of China. China never stopped diplomatic support to these countries which raised several doubts on its intention to achieve proliferation.
The export of dual-use technology to countries like Iran and North Korea by China has been a point of contention between China and Western countries. With the western countries abandoning China’s market, the act of proliferation by China is highly possible to gain economically and strategically. Since the position of liberal institutions has weakened over the last few years, it would be difficult to keep a check on the proliferation activities.
The question which arises is now where does India stand in it? India has undertaken the COVID 19 threat thoughtfully and stands economically strong. India has already exhibited its responsible behavior in times of crisis by exporting the much-needed drugs to various countries. India is a responsible nuclear state, has the benefits of taking a chance of emerging as a civil nuclear energy exporter to the countries (particularly to the western world) and replace China in this sector. Further, India is probably the only country that has friendly relations with both Iran and the US which may help it to lead the further non-proliferation efforts.