Jammu and Kashmir Assembly Elections: Emotional Campaigning, Populist Promises and the Road to Stability  

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The Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections-2024 mark a transformative moment for the region’s political landscape. These elections are the first since the revocation of the special status of J&K (article 370) in 2019. With two phases of polling completed, the final phase is scheduled on October 1 and counting of votes will be on October 8, 2024. The mandate this time too is expected to be fractured like in the elections of 2002, 2008 and 2014. The voter turnout so far has overall been notable, reflecting a shift from the boycott culture and separatist ideologies to merging into the mainstream. The increased political participation of youth in all the 90 constituencies reflects their keenness for change on the ground and resolution of their pressing issues like massive unemployment. Also this election especially in the valley is characterized by emotional campaigning /emotional slogans aimed at manipulating people with emotions and ambitious promises from some political parties and a few independents who even made big promises which are far beyond the power jurisdiction of a UT assembly. What makes this election interesting is the way people are responding to poll process and the shift in voting behavior after a long gap of 10 years.  Further the emerging political dynamics in terms of small parties claiming to be king makers, scores of independents, pre poll and possible post poll  alliances, the role of social media in shaping the public opinion, significant decline in violence and a growing demand for democratic accountability, as citizens express aspirations for change, statehood demand, effective governance, social justice and dignified livelihood to youth besides release of prisoners’ arrested under PSA/ UAPA.

Elections in Jammu and Kashmir and the Public Pulse

Elections in Jammu and Kashmir are underway for a 90 seat Assembly, (47 seats in Kashmir division and 43 seats in Jammu division) with two phases over and final Phase scheduled on October1, after a long gap of ten years. This milestone event marks the first election since the territory’s special status was revoked and its statehood withdrawn in 2019. As the people of Jammu and Kashmir cast their votes, it’s essential to examine their response so far and the social and political churning in the valley, peoples especially youth’s huge response to the polls, the voting behavior and new patterns of youth affiliations and role of media, funny slogans, music and dance during campaigning. Needless to say that the proliferation of social media and digital platforms has revolutionized the way people consume information and engage with politics. But during this election it seems that most of the candidates and the political parties especially in Kashmir have leveraged these platforms for propagating their emotional polarization that sans any concrete development talk which may have an impact on the poll outcomes. Sociologically speaking, the campaigning for these elections has more been around the emotional issues/prison stories, peoples suffering, labeling and blame game rather than any definite development related speeches especially in the valley given the huge gap between the peoples chosen government in past (2014) and scenario now. However, the remarkable thing with these elections is that separatism is completely a dissolved idea and the credit goes to the decades of conflict fatigue too besides the role of security apparatus. Separatism as an ideology seems to have has lost its relevance seeing the wider participation of people across ideologies and even religio-political groups like Jamaat-e-Islami. The two phases completed so far on 50 seats have showed encouraging voting percentages which as per ECI were 61.38 and 57.31 percent respectively. The larger turn out can definitely be linked to people’s unsubscribing to the politics or ideology of violence and vested interests.

Navigating New Normalcy: The Path to Sustainable Peace and Progress

This election certainly brought a new hope for the return of total normalcy with a significant decline in the culture of violence in the valley while Jammu region has became the new Kashmir in terms of attacks on pilgrims and recent terrorist incidents. While people and the political parties all heaved a sigh of relief with the announcement of the elections in the union territory because it ended the prolonged political uncertainty in J&K, one can safely argue that Jammu and Kashmir today is reaping the fruits of normalcy and sense of accountability created under the LG regime. As there hardly seems any radicalization or radical elements especially among the vulnerable youth who are showing a growing interest in electoral politics and a new crop of young leaders has emerged on the political landscape bring new ideas and energy into the public sphere. While the demand for the return of statehood is at the top, youths focus is on development prioritizing issues like education, employment and infrastructural development besides yearning for free voices and expression.

On the security and peace building front, the real challenge to the upcoming government will be to institutionalize the achieved state of peace and normalcy. It will not be too difficult for them since the security apparatus through its perception management, Sadbhavana and efficient counter terrorism has been able to institutionalize goodwill among masses for decades now despite many challenges. Given the kind of success and dynamics that Sadbhavana funded goodwill school education has achieved on the ground, Sadbhavana can directly linked to the peace building at the micro-level and that is why it requires further boost in Kashmir in terms of increase in funding, salary hike of goodwill teachers and development of the school infrastructure besides opening more schools in the valley particularly in the border areas to reap good peace dividends in future. This goes without saying that while Sadbhavana funds education and children and youths exposure trips, sports activities, the outcome is the sustainable peace that stands as a key element behind Kashmir’s new normalcy today. In terms of security; while the Forces graduated towards genuine commitment to the dictums of ‘Zero HR Violations’ and ‘Zero Collateral Damage’, the people have accordingly responded with tolerance and sense of peace and tranquility has appeared on the ground.

On the political front, undoubtedly there had been a steady deepening of uncertainty due to delay in the peoples chosen government formation (State demoted to UTs) and a plethora of wild guesses about the possible players in government formation however the larger question and bigger challenge remains how the Centre envisions future Jammu and Kashmir and what is its idea and work plan for sustaining the achieved peace quantum ahead? Because just government formation cannot be the solution, Jammu and Kashmir needs much more than that in terms of the issues it is beset with.

While the voting percentage so far in two phases is certainly encouraging (barring Srinagar vote percentage 29.1%) and a reflection of shunning of separatist ideologies (even Hurriyat not calling itself separatist but a resolution seeker now), there is a challenge too and that is how the increasing belief in good governance during LG Raj should be carried forward and the best practices set under his regime are not diluted or compromised besides working seriously to address the trust deficit among masses. What is yet to be seen is how this change translates into happiness in the valley, improved Human Indices, social infrastructure and real empowerment of the people besides the immediate return of the statehood status to Jammu and Kashmir.

Peoples Aspirations and Overwhelming Participation

If the participation of people in the poll process is taken as the measurement of trust in democracy, then there has been a tremendous boost in this direction, however voting behavior in Kashmir this time is not just linked to what media calls the silent voter (angry people but silent out of fear) who wanted a change from Bureaucracy Raj to love for democracy (From UT status to Statehood) only but  it is seen with a practical impact on the ground in terms of massive participation of people in the poll campaigning with a significant women’s participation in the campaigning too. However there are lesser women contesting as compared to men as out of 873 total candidates in the fray only 43 are women. Also a significant section of youth candidates are contesting and youth are campaigning freely for their youth icons without any fear or terror threats this time. Further Jamat-e-Islami’-a banned religio-political outfit jumping in the poll fray (indirectly through 10 independent candidates) is not a less interesting factor and needs to be studied from security and sociological perspectives. The re-emergence of Engineer Rashid all of a sudden in campaigning and his style of emotional politics and polarization of votes especially in the northern belt of the valley and his alliance with Jamat-e-Islami is going to have a significant impact. His party Awami Itihad Party (AIP) expanding its footprint in the whole valley is also significant and its overall impact on youth psychology also need to be studied carefully. The larger question however will be how will the state negotiate with such a provocative rhetoric seeing its impact on the vulnerable younger generation.

 

Newly Emerged/Small Parties vs. Established Parties: The Problem of Credibility

Besides Er Rashid’s AIP and Sajad Lone’s Peoples Conference, a huge number of independent candidates in the fray reflect the vote divide and fragmentation of votes against the major parties and its impact remains to be seen in terms of the vote share and winnability of the established parties.  Post 2018, Kashmir valley saw the emergence of a few one-leader new parties, actually the rebels who left the established parties who are trying hard to make their mark and prevent the established parties to get good numbers to form the government. However image issues, public rapport and lack of big faces in the party other than the founder remains their major challenge. Ironically some of these parties are even claiming to be the king makers in the government formation that will be seen on October 8 when the counting takes place. The fact remains that the established parties are struggling hard to retain their traditional turfs and loyal voters given the plethora of challenges like an army of independent candidates fighting against them in almost in all the constituencies. Besides the traditional big parties, even these small parties are talking about big resolutions far beyond their UT assembly mandate like bringing back Article 370/35A, release of incarcerated people arrested under PSA/UAPA, return of the statehood, identity questions, regional aspirations, power projects, freebies besides blame game against each other. Even the people know the limits of the new UT assembly while some leaders try to manipulate them with claims like, “Kashmir Ka Masla” but voting is purely an emotional issue this time in Kashmir valley for people are desperate for change and want their own representatives to look into their grave problems.

Youths Shifting Voting Preferences

A shift in voting behavior of youth is also a significant factor especially in the rural Kashmir. Family affiliations to political parties no longer dictate their voting decisions, with young people prioritizing regional identity. Therefore, there is a shift in voting behavior among youth from their parents’ traditional party loyalties. This is because youth are very conscious, aware of history and out of their rising unemployment, livelihood and career concerns they have even challenged the family loyalties. Also amid the growing media influence and youths access to information and analysis, changing ideological affiliations may alter the expected political outcomes of these elections on October 8 when the results come out. In rural Kashmir voting behavior is also shaped by people’s personal likeness of the candidate, party affiliations, and direct-indirect contact with the contesting candidate, local issues, community or religious leader’s influence or directions to their followers to vote for a particular candidate.

Of Government Formation: Who Will Take the Helm?

As speculations predict a National Conference in alliance with Congress (JKNC + JK CONGRESS ++) will score above the required numbers but may need PDP or Er. Rashid or both to make it to the government formation but at the same time BJP is expected to win big in Jammu division and with the help of independents, it can also be a major contender to stake claim to form the government. What is interesting to see is whether the congress candidates contesting against BJP in Jammu are able to get a significant number of seats? After the completion of final phase of polling on October 1 on 40 seats, the counting will be on October 8.besides pre poll alliances; some post poll alliances are also expected. Will Rashid’s AIP  be the king maker or how will Jamat-e-Islami backed 10 candidates’ fare in these elections remains to be seen as Jamaat is back in the fray after 37 long years. Will emotional campaigning work and fetch good number of seats even to parties like PDP also remains to be seen?

The hard reality is that Jammu and Kashmir’s youth are in search of genuine, capable and inspired leadership and this is the reason that youth are overwhelmingly participating in these elections. They demand a dignified livelihood, effective leadership, inclusive ideas of peace and development. As far major issues to be resolved are concerned, youth unemployment, social justice and welfare, quality of basic facilities like safe and clean drinking water supply and affordable electricity, quality education and tourism development, agricultural and industries development and infrastructure remain key issues and areas.

Last Word: Beyond the Verdict

Message is simply loud and clear, people want to move towards peace, prosperity and development besides redressel of their basic issues like water supply and electricity supply and tariff. People want their candidates to fight for their free voice, for a life with dignity and most importantly for working towards creation of employment avenues which needs a clear roadmap and Centre’s special employment package. The clear cut message by the overwhelming participation of the people in these elections to all the parties is that ‘if you fail to deliver, we will fail you for sure’. What remains to be seen is whether the new assembly fulfills the youth aspirations and tackles the pressing challenges within its very limited powers. The politicians in J&K should not keep luring masses on emotional issues but the real efforts of the new assembly should be to work for the peace, progress and development as people already have adapted to the changes post article 370 abrogation.

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