by Nilofar Suhrawardy 10 March 2021
Media coverage and people’s response to the incident leading to Mamata Bannerjee being injured after being allegedly pushed by four-five men this Wednesday (March 10) bear their significance. The lady’s political importance in this state cannot be sidelined. Not surprisingly, ahead of assembly elections in West Bengal, speculations and deliberations are in the air about the possible outcome. While chances are strong of Bannerjee returning to power, the key question is whether Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would fare better in comparison to its performance in preceding polls. Though Bannerjee is making all possible efforts in her campaigns, BJP leaders are also trying their best. Till results are declared, BJP’s confidence is likely to rest on illusions and/or opinions the leaders and members have on their communication strategies. It may be pertinent to analyze their electoral approach with respect to West Bengal Assembly elections and deliberate upon who has the Midas touch in this crucial political game.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s return to power with a sweeping majority in 2019 parliamentary elections appears to have convinced him that he has the “Midas-touch,” which can turn the political tide in his favor, come what may. Not surprisingly, ahead of state elections in West Bengal (April-May, 2021), he began making the extra effort to look and dress like Bengali-icon, Nobel Laureate- Rabindranath Tagore (1861-1941) and thus attract voters to support his party- BJP. Ah, this strategy by itself raises questions about whether he has the Midas-touch or is banking on the appeal of Tagore in West Bengal.
Bengalis are, however, well aware that Modi is not a Bengali. While Bengal is in Eastern India, Modi’s home state is Gujarat in the West. It is not just the question of East being East and West-West during electoral campaigns for state and other local elections. Political speeches delivered in Hindi or any non-Bengali language are least likely to be given much importance by Bengalis. Not surprisingly, Bannerjee commented in her political address that only “Bengal will rule Bengal.” This may be viewed as her style of emphasizing that Modi- a non-Bengali must not be given any importance by Bengali voters.
Incidentally, regional identity carries substantial political importance in practically all states of India. This may also be said to be partly responsible for the limited reach of BJP in Southern India as well as non-Hindi-speaking states during intra-state, local elections. In this context, the gradual decline of CPM’s political strength in West Bengal cannot be de-linked from the party’s key reins passing on to non-Bengalis.
In addition, the high-voltage communal card used aggressively by BJP and right-winged groups linked with it doesn’t carry the same weight in states outside the Hindi belt. The Ram-card has certainly helped BJP achieve political heights. However, communal frenzy linked with particularly the construction of a temple after the demolition of a mosque (1992) in Ayodhya (Uttar Pradesh) has lost an electoral appeal for voters at large. It bears practically no importance in states where strong religious passion is displayed for other Hindu deities. This holds true in West Bengal too.
Besides, due to covid-trauma accompanied by inflation, loss of jobs, and with recent months being witness to protest of farmers against controversial agricultural laws passed by the central government, the common Indian has an unending list of grievances. These cannot be answered by Modi’s “Tagore-strategy” or by any political rhetoric. Modi is certainly a master strategist in this art but doesn’t have the Midas-touch to always turn political tidings in his favor. Even during the 2019 parliamentary elections, BJP secured less than 40% votes.
The situation may have been different if Modi was not in power for the second term. His secular mask held appeal when he entered national politics in 2014. But that has been ripped apart by right-winged extremist elements associated with BJP. Communal language, including anti-Muslim campaigns, has little appeal for voters in West Bengal. Covid-panic, as well as economic woes, cannot also be dismissed away by communal rhetoric. Initially, an attempt was made to blame Muslims for Covid-19. Indians, however, did not take long to understand that the vicious virus does not discriminate along religious, caste, or any socioeconomic lines.
It would be wrong to assume that Modi has Midas-touch that can turn the electoral tide in favor of BJP in West Bengal assembly elections. Prospects of Bannerjee returning to power for the third term are strongly dependent on her own party’s campaign. The lady is also using the services of Prashant Kishor, a well-known political strategist. But to assume that he has Midas-touch would be erroneous. Though his strategies have succeeded often that he failed miserably when Congress used his services in Uttar Pradesh assembly elections (2017) cannot be forgotten.
Seasoned Bengali politicians and voters are likely to view Kishor and his team members as outsiders. Prospects of their feeling at home with what non-Bengali political strategists instruct them to do may be viewed as good as non-existent. The limited impact of political strategies being worked upon from glass-door cabins cannot also be ignored. Neither Modi nor Kishor is a Bengali and may be assumed to be sans Midas-touch for common voters in West Bengal in state elections.
Against this backdrop, the new importance acquired by political strategists in Indian elections is worth deliberating upon. The use of their services during state and other elections seems fairly intriguing, especially if these strategists don’t belong to the state where their services are asked for. The explanation is simple. The unwritten rule in Indian politics is that local politicians and local leaders are given greater importance in state elections. Besides, the question of “outsiders” intruding into their local politics doesn’t have much appeal for politicians at large, particularly concerning state-level, municipal, and elections at other levels involving a contest between only natives of the specific regions within the state.
Give a thought, how would a Bengali-speaking common person and/or even senior politician feel on being directed regarding ABCDs about electoral ups and downs, rights and wrongs from a non-Bengali and in a language that is not Bengali? People-to-people communication in a language with which they are easily familiar tends to have a greater impact than in one with which is not a part of their routine lifestyle.
In addition, there is no denying that while educated and economically well-off people give a lot of importance to discussing political issues, their participation in casting votes is lesser than those of less educated and poorer voters. Prospects of educated political strategists’ style of the campaign on the latter may well be assumed to be minimal. Also, when a key politician chooses to invite a political strategist to help in electoral campaigning, to a degree impression is created of him/her having lesser confidence than earlier about his/own electoral prospects. It is not without reason that a key politician in West Bengal recently commented that if Trinamool Congress performs poorly, the party’s political strategist would be blamed for it. Before it is too late, Bannerjee needs to rely more strongly on her own Bengali party members’ voice. The voter is the final judge and in regional elections, their own local leaders’ voice and role carry greater importance for them!